Garin-Hart-Yang for Frank Kratovil (4/23-24, likely voters):
Andy Harris (R): 43
Frank Kratovil (D): 34
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±5)
Harris, as you recall, knocked off moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in a contentious primary earlier this year. Despite Gilchrest’s non-endorsement of war wingnut Harris, at a PVI of R+9.8, this is going to be a tough district for Kratovil to win. He’ll need to wage an aggressive campaign painting Harris as an extremist in order to have a shot here.
(H/T: RandySF)
This is interesting. A friend of mine has been pushing this race to me for a while. Gilchrest will not back Harris, and many of his people are actively working for Kratovil. If Wayne Gilchrest decides to give an endorsement to our candidate later in the game, it could make a big difference.
I have known Frank Kratovil for 11 years and volunteered on his first campaign for State’s Attorney (where in the primary he defeated a good-old-boy longtime incumbent and after he was elected he professionalized the State’s Attorney’s office).
I have never met a harder campaigner than Frank Kratovil. Obviously an R+9.8 district is a challenge, but I have enough confidence that Frank can win this that for the second time in my life (the first was Howard Dean) I spent months saving up and with the help of the $600 stimulus rebate and a slightly larger than expected tax refund I have maxed out to Frank’s campaign.
I did this because on top of being confident that Frank can win this seat, I also know he is the type of better Democrat that will do his research and will stand up for the constitution and the rule of law and not let a President violate the law. He is a policy wonk trapped in a charismatic politician’s body.
Now on the issue of winnability… this district, has similar characteristics as the R+10 district of MS-1 in that it has a huge geographic divide and the Republican candidate comes from the wrong part of the district. Population wise 50% of the district is on the Eastern Shore of MD, 25% of the district is in Baltimore County and Harford County exurbs of Baltimore City (kind of like Southhaven, MS was to Memphis), and 25% of the district is in Anne Arundel County north of Annapolis. Frank is a local prosecutor on the Eastern Shore. The Republican (a Club for Growth guy) Andy Harris is a State Senator from Baltimore County. The Eastern Shore has a strong regional dislike of Baltimore.
Kratovil gave a good speech to the MSTA (Maryland State Teacher’s Association). He will get their support, although I don’t know how influential MSTA is in that neck of the woods.