Campaign and Election News – Covering Key Races Around the Country
Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?
What’s on your mind?
105 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”
The two MS-SEN polls we have seen this week. Seems odd that there would be such an inconsistency there.
definetly going to have to take a look at the races on the poll for veterans here. A money bomb could be key to any race at this juncture, check it out
And also Frank Kratovil in Maryland. There was something about his poll yesterday on here but also he comes out 7 points AHEAD of Harris among those polled familiar with both candidates. http://www.politickermd.com/ke…
Also Chris Cilliza has brought up some other races that have races in heavilly Republican seats been close in LA-4 NM-2 and especially WY at large, which I think was almost a dead tie in 2006.
This is my home district. Suzanne a top tier candidate on our side going against one of the worst congressmen in the country, Tom Feeney. The district has only a slight republican lean. This may be our best pickup opportunity in Florida this cycle. Drop her a few bucks if you can. This is my home district.
I’d say it’s because the DSCC poll didn’t name parties and the Kos poll did. Evidently, special elections in Mississippi don’t have the party identification of candidates on the ballot.
Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell is facing his first challenger from within the party, progressive Ed Fallon. Boswell has the party establishment and lots of PAC money. Fallon has grassroots organization, progressive endorsements from local and national groups, and won the district two years ago in an unsuccessful bid for the gubernatorial race. June 3rd is the primary. There is only token GOP opposition in the fall.
CNN reports that both the Clinton and Obama camps are discussing how Clinton can make a graceful exit from the race with the possibility of her being his vp pick.
I was very against choosing her for quite some time but I dunno, I’m somewhat warming up to the idea. I really hate how she has ran her campaign, so divisive and is exactly wrong wtih politics but when you look at the delegate total, she really did barely lose. Pairing them together could really guarantee us a win. But a lot of pissed off Republican voters (like my parents) who have said they will vote for Obama but never a Clinton, well, that may make them not for Obama.
I’d say Fallon’s chances are good. I’ve seen the numbers from their canvassing. Very impressive.
Boswell’s Democratic loyalty voting record has been much higher in the 110th than in any previous Congress. He had three years in the 60s, three years in the 70s, some in the 80s. He has introduced only two bills in 12 years that have passed — one is the Suicide Prevention Act, which was good but a no-brainer — it passed by a voice vote. The other bill was to rename the federal building in Des Moines. Not a distinguished record. He voted for the Iraq War and voted to fund it until 2007, when he had some votes for and against troop withdrawals.
Boswell under-performs the much more liberal Sen. Tom Harkin in this district by thousands of votes. The GOP opposition this fall is going to be token. I’ve only met one person who has even heard of their nominee.
Pearce performed the same in 2002 and 2004. But I do think that, under the right circumstances, we could take Pearce’s seat. The x-factor there would, if Pearce wins the primary, how he affects the down-ticket race there. I suspect that it would help the Republican down there, but who knows.
With Clinton on the ticket as VP, Repubs would be stimulated to campaign HARD for McCain. Also I have to wonder if Obama would lose a good deal of his luster as a true reformer. After all, having her as VP would directly contradict the thrust of his message to do things differently.
Finally there would be the very real problem of governance. Since it is clear that the Clintons come as a pair, what would he do with Bill? I fear there would be constant behind-the-scenes squabbling to block some half-baked Bill idea.
And, after yesterday’s gaffe by Clinton, MANY people are so turned off that they could well either sit on their hands in Nov or decide ‘there isn’t a dime’s worth of difference’ between the Parties.
Especially in African-American communities. And we especially need to make sure they know which candidate is the Democrat in the race since party ID will not be on the ballot.
seem to be dead on here Jack. Your arguing to entirely different things. You can’t say that Hillary will bring about party unity as the VP and then say she will have no impact on the ballot.
Fact is, Hillary will have an impact on the ticket. If Obama wants to win, he can’t take her.
party unity is simply that, party unity(having a convention that is all kumbaya); the voting patterns issue is simply historical fact(voters vote the TOP of the ticket; the veep is along for the ride)
can we PLEASE refrain from prz talk here until then? please?
damn thing to do with you editorializing about things from my comment that i DID NOT say; you are entitled your opinion(no matter how short sighted it is)BUT you do not have the right to take my simple comment and then draw wild notions from it, then not expect to respond in kind(my comment was a very simple one, and i stand by it) AND yes you were bloviating because you clearly didn’t read my comment or you just misunderstood its intent; i trust obama to make up his own mind on HIS veep(that is his right)BUT if he chooses hillary, folks will have to deal with it
Whew, I had to go check and make sure I wasn’t on Daily Kos, the rancor was so thick. Don’t lose sight of McBush, folks; he’s the problem here. Obama knows he needs to add value to the ticket with his choice. My guess is that Hillary or another strong female, or Richardson can do that quite well. Given that, (and I’m a Clinton supporter) I’d say take Richardson and lock up the Latino vote, while strengthening his Foreign affairs argument. I believe the female vote will largely go to Obama anyway. Bill is a problem, and one Obama doesn’t need. Obama could try to use his clout to get Hillary as Majority Leader if he wants to really use her skills.
So, really people, can we please not turn this awesome site into dKos and MyDD? At least until June 3rd or so, that would be great. Anytime the primary gets mentioned, everyone’s vagina gets chocked full of sand (sorry, I’m watching South Park and the reference seemed quite topical and to apply here) and it would really suck for the SSP to devolve like the others have. Not to knock Jerome or Kos, they have been giants in the blogosphere and will remain to be, but the communities on both of those sites (Obama and Clinton people, alike) have been a huge, HUGE turn-off these last few months. So I come here, to the Guru and PolticalWire and that’s about it nowadays, lol.
To answer which races are on my mind….
The Senate races in Oklahoma and Idaho. These two always tend to get lost in the shuffle – even when discussing lower tier races in cheap markets (many times at the hands of Nebraska or even Kansas) – and I think each have the potential to surprise. I’ll naturally always be most intrigued with the Texas Senate showdown, but have really been disappointed by the lack of coverage these two races seem to get. I’m not saying they deserve placement among the Top 10 Target list or anything, but some buzz would be cool coming from OK and ID. Or even some new, updated polling would suffice.
I said they only affect those who are already on the fence on your candidacy (not undecideds, the leaners) which is what, 5% of the general populous for either party. So yeah, it doesn’t affect either that much.
Then again, both Obama and McCain can expect 45% of America to back either of them. Only 10% of this country is really undecided independents.
I think there is one huge difference between past VP choices and them not having any affect on voting and this time if it were to be Clinton. Just the fact that it is Hillary Clinton and so many people already have very strong feelings for or against her I think will change that. Nobody really cared about Edwards, he was a cheerleader; nobody was like, I hate John Edwards and will not vote for Kerry. But, we can all safely assume there will be PLENTY of voters out there who will say this though about Hillary Clinton, I hate Hillary Clinton so I can’t vote for Obama.
i am an edwards supporter who quickly moved over to the obama camp as soon as edwards dropped out;like you, i to think richardson would be a great choice for veep;BUT in these posts i have tried to simply point out the FACT that the choice of veep has very LITTLE to do with how folks vote; folks vote TOP of the ticket, the veep is along for the ride
I’d agree a VP matters little to the electoral map (with the exception of Johnson who helped Kennedy a great deal in the South) BUT a VP can sometimes swing his or her home state which is why I think both Rendell and Strickland get serious consdieration by Obama. And, given that they are both Hillary supporters choosing either would go a long way towards unifying the party.
would be better off with mccain? please tell me that i am misreading you here(if i am, i apologize)becuase if you think this country can stomach FOUR MORE YEARS of george w. bush in the white house, then, you my friend, are an idiot
SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (the House Race Ratings as well), I think it’s high time we have a diary on the race ratings itself, so we can provide our commentary on the state of the ratings. I personally have my Senate Race Ratings and keep them up-to-date:
REPUBLICAN HELD-SEATS
Tier 1 – Changing of the Party (Likely to Lean DEM Take-over)
01. Virginia: Fmr. Gov. Warner vs. Fmr. Gov. Gilmore [Open]
02. New Mexico: US Rep. Tom Udall vs. US Rep. Pearce [Open]
03. New Hampshire: Fmr. Gov. Shaheen vs. Senator Sununu-Inc.
04. Colorado: US Rep Mark Udall vs. Fmr. US Rep Schaffer [Open]
Tier 2 – Competitive Races (Toss-up to Lean Incumbent Party)
05. Alaska: Mayor Begich vs. Senator Stevens-Inc.
06. Minnesota: Franken vs. Senator Coleman-Inc.
07. Oregon: St. Rep Merkley vs. Senator Smith-Inc.
08. North Carolina: St. Senate Hagan vs. Senator Dole-Inc.
09. Mississippi-B: Fmr. Gov. Musgrove vs. Senator Wicker-Inc.
10. Maine: US Rep Allen vs. Senator Collins-Inc.
Tier 3 – On the Bubble (between Potentially Competitive & Safe)
11. Texas: St. Rep Noriega vs. Senator Cornyn-Inc.
12. Nebraska: US Rep Nominee Kleeb vs. Fmr. Gov Johanns [Open]
13. Oklahoma: St. Senator Rice vs. Senator Inhofe-Inc.
14. Idaho: Fmr. US Rep LaRocco vs. Lt. Gov. Risch [Open]
15. Kansas: Fmr. US Rep Slattery vs. Senator Roberts-Inc.
16. Kentucky: Fmr. St. Commerce Sec. Lunsford vs. Senator McConnell-Inc.
Tier 4 – Safe GOP Seats for Retention
17. Tennessee: Senator Alexander-Inc.
18. Alabama: Senator Sessions-Inc.
19. Georgia: Senator Chambliss-Inc.
20. South Carolina: Senator Graham-Inc.
21. Wyoming-B: Senator Barrasso-Inc.
22. Mississippi: Senator Cochran-Inc.
23. Wyoming: Senator Enzi-Inc.
Strikingly enough, my Top 10 match the 10 in the first and second tier match SSP’s, whereas my Tier 3, which matches SSP’s Races To Watch, match for SSP’s 5, and I have ID as well in there. The other 7 we both agree are SAFE as SAFE can be for the GOP.
According to a new Mason-Dixon poll Obama is looking decent in Montana. The state has been more friendly to Dems lately in statewide elections. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, though that was in large part due to Perot being on the ballot. Of note is that the black population is less than 1/2 of 1% in MT.
Does the U of Minn allow you access to the names/addresses of incoming out-of-state students? If so, your local Obama group may want to contact them, give them a Dem pep talk, and (depending on the state where they live) urge them to register and vote in MN rather than, say, IL. Of course in some cases it might be better for them to register in their home state, but my sense is that Franken (as well as Obama) is going to need every vote he can get.
In short this is something you might be able to do even BEFORE the fall term starts when frosh are overwhelmed with being univ students. Perhaps you can help them register when they get to MN. Also that is a useful way to create a data base of the incoming students that you can add to your existing U of MN one.
I hope you have a good master list so that you can identify Dem voters and on election day and make sure that all vote.
Here in MA, I think most schools encourage students to register/vote in their home states. With us being all Dem all the time, there’s no utility in having them vote here. Also good organizations help them with both registration and absentee ballots from their home states. Some states are incredibly slow. Years ago while living abroad, I requested an absentee ballot WELL ahead of the election. The day before the election it reached me–in Belgium. It was the only GE I ever missed.
I wish it were possible to create a nation-wide network linking all colleges and unis so that standardization and coordination of activities would be possible.
Glad to hear you’re doing what you are. It should help. As for Franken, I’m glad you understand the importance of electing Dems. Let’s hope that Hillary supporters understand the same thing.
After being asked politely to quit acting like a jackass on multiple occasions, he still comes back here making petty and childish remarks in response to people who disagree with him. I don’t mind people who disagree with me, but when half the thread is one person being an ass, it’s a bit of a distraction.
Is there a realistic chance that we can finally take down Jon Porter? What has Dina Titus been doing since she announced her candidacy?
If Porter gets reelected in November, we can almost be sure that he’ll be challenging Harry Reid in 2010. And we don’t want that to happen.
The two MS-SEN polls we have seen this week. Seems odd that there would be such an inconsistency there.
definetly going to have to take a look at the races on the poll for veterans here. A money bomb could be key to any race at this juncture, check it out
http://www.swingstateproject.c…
MS and NC Senate races
And also Frank Kratovil in Maryland. There was something about his poll yesterday on here but also he comes out 7 points AHEAD of Harris among those polled familiar with both candidates. http://www.politickermd.com/ke…
Also Chris Cilliza has brought up some other races that have races in heavilly Republican seats been close in LA-4 NM-2 and especially WY at large, which I think was almost a dead tie in 2006.
This is my home district. Suzanne a top tier candidate on our side going against one of the worst congressmen in the country, Tom Feeney. The district has only a slight republican lean. This may be our best pickup opportunity in Florida this cycle. Drop her a few bucks if you can. This is my home district.
http://www.kosmasforcongress.com/
I’d say it’s because the DSCC poll didn’t name parties and the Kos poll did. Evidently, special elections in Mississippi don’t have the party identification of candidates on the ballot.
Blue Dog Democratic incumbent Leonard Boswell is facing his first challenger from within the party, progressive Ed Fallon. Boswell has the party establishment and lots of PAC money. Fallon has grassroots organization, progressive endorsements from local and national groups, and won the district two years ago in an unsuccessful bid for the gubernatorial race. June 3rd is the primary. There is only token GOP opposition in the fall.
CNN reports that both the Clinton and Obama camps are discussing how Clinton can make a graceful exit from the race with the possibility of her being his vp pick.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…
I was very against choosing her for quite some time but I dunno, I’m somewhat warming up to the idea. I really hate how she has ran her campaign, so divisive and is exactly wrong wtih politics but when you look at the delegate total, she really did barely lose. Pairing them together could really guarantee us a win. But a lot of pissed off Republican voters (like my parents) who have said they will vote for Obama but never a Clinton, well, that may make them not for Obama.
I’d say Fallon’s chances are good. I’ve seen the numbers from their canvassing. Very impressive.
Boswell’s Democratic loyalty voting record has been much higher in the 110th than in any previous Congress. He had three years in the 60s, three years in the 70s, some in the 80s. He has introduced only two bills in 12 years that have passed — one is the Suicide Prevention Act, which was good but a no-brainer — it passed by a voice vote. The other bill was to rename the federal building in Des Moines. Not a distinguished record. He voted for the Iraq War and voted to fund it until 2007, when he had some votes for and against troop withdrawals.
Boswell under-performs the much more liberal Sen. Tom Harkin in this district by thousands of votes. The GOP opposition this fall is going to be token. I’ve only met one person who has even heard of their nominee.
Pearce performed the same in 2002 and 2004. But I do think that, under the right circumstances, we could take Pearce’s seat. The x-factor there would, if Pearce wins the primary, how he affects the down-ticket race there. I suspect that it would help the Republican down there, but who knows.
With Clinton on the ticket as VP, Repubs would be stimulated to campaign HARD for McCain. Also I have to wonder if Obama would lose a good deal of his luster as a true reformer. After all, having her as VP would directly contradict the thrust of his message to do things differently.
Finally there would be the very real problem of governance. Since it is clear that the Clintons come as a pair, what would he do with Bill? I fear there would be constant behind-the-scenes squabbling to block some half-baked Bill idea.
And, after yesterday’s gaffe by Clinton, MANY people are so turned off that they could well either sit on their hands in Nov or decide ‘there isn’t a dime’s worth of difference’ between the Parties.
Especially in African-American communities. And we especially need to make sure they know which candidate is the Democrat in the race since party ID will not be on the ballot.
seem to be dead on here Jack. Your arguing to entirely different things. You can’t say that Hillary will bring about party unity as the VP and then say she will have no impact on the ballot.
Fact is, Hillary will have an impact on the ticket. If Obama wants to win, he can’t take her.
party unity is simply that, party unity(having a convention that is all kumbaya); the voting patterns issue is simply historical fact(voters vote the TOP of the ticket; the veep is along for the ride)
can we PLEASE refrain from prz talk here until then? please?
damn thing to do with you editorializing about things from my comment that i DID NOT say; you are entitled your opinion(no matter how short sighted it is)BUT you do not have the right to take my simple comment and then draw wild notions from it, then not expect to respond in kind(my comment was a very simple one, and i stand by it) AND yes you were bloviating because you clearly didn’t read my comment or you just misunderstood its intent; i trust obama to make up his own mind on HIS veep(that is his right)BUT if he chooses hillary, folks will have to deal with it
Whew, I had to go check and make sure I wasn’t on Daily Kos, the rancor was so thick. Don’t lose sight of McBush, folks; he’s the problem here. Obama knows he needs to add value to the ticket with his choice. My guess is that Hillary or another strong female, or Richardson can do that quite well. Given that, (and I’m a Clinton supporter) I’d say take Richardson and lock up the Latino vote, while strengthening his Foreign affairs argument. I believe the female vote will largely go to Obama anyway. Bill is a problem, and one Obama doesn’t need. Obama could try to use his clout to get Hillary as Majority Leader if he wants to really use her skills.
So, really people, can we please not turn this awesome site into dKos and MyDD? At least until June 3rd or so, that would be great. Anytime the primary gets mentioned, everyone’s vagina gets chocked full of sand (sorry, I’m watching South Park and the reference seemed quite topical and to apply here) and it would really suck for the SSP to devolve like the others have. Not to knock Jerome or Kos, they have been giants in the blogosphere and will remain to be, but the communities on both of those sites (Obama and Clinton people, alike) have been a huge, HUGE turn-off these last few months. So I come here, to the Guru and PolticalWire and that’s about it nowadays, lol.
To answer which races are on my mind….
The Senate races in Oklahoma and Idaho. These two always tend to get lost in the shuffle – even when discussing lower tier races in cheap markets (many times at the hands of Nebraska or even Kansas) – and I think each have the potential to surprise. I’ll naturally always be most intrigued with the Texas Senate showdown, but have really been disappointed by the lack of coverage these two races seem to get. I’m not saying they deserve placement among the Top 10 Target list or anything, but some buzz would be cool coming from OK and ID. Or even some new, updated polling would suffice.
I said they only affect those who are already on the fence on your candidacy (not undecideds, the leaners) which is what, 5% of the general populous for either party. So yeah, it doesn’t affect either that much.
Then again, both Obama and McCain can expect 45% of America to back either of them. Only 10% of this country is really undecided independents.
I think there is one huge difference between past VP choices and them not having any affect on voting and this time if it were to be Clinton. Just the fact that it is Hillary Clinton and so many people already have very strong feelings for or against her I think will change that. Nobody really cared about Edwards, he was a cheerleader; nobody was like, I hate John Edwards and will not vote for Kerry. But, we can all safely assume there will be PLENTY of voters out there who will say this though about Hillary Clinton, I hate Hillary Clinton so I can’t vote for Obama.
i am an edwards supporter who quickly moved over to the obama camp as soon as edwards dropped out;like you, i to think richardson would be a great choice for veep;BUT in these posts i have tried to simply point out the FACT that the choice of veep has very LITTLE to do with how folks vote; folks vote TOP of the ticket, the veep is along for the ride
I’d agree a VP matters little to the electoral map (with the exception of Johnson who helped Kennedy a great deal in the South) BUT a VP can sometimes swing his or her home state which is why I think both Rendell and Strickland get serious consdieration by Obama. And, given that they are both Hillary supporters choosing either would go a long way towards unifying the party.
would be better off with mccain? please tell me that i am misreading you here(if i am, i apologize)becuase if you think this country can stomach FOUR MORE YEARS of george w. bush in the white house, then, you my friend, are an idiot
SSP’s Competitive Senate Race Ratings (the House Race Ratings as well), I think it’s high time we have a diary on the race ratings itself, so we can provide our commentary on the state of the ratings. I personally have my Senate Race Ratings and keep them up-to-date:
REPUBLICAN HELD-SEATS
Tier 1 – Changing of the Party (Likely to Lean DEM Take-over)
01. Virginia: Fmr. Gov. Warner vs. Fmr. Gov. Gilmore [Open]
02. New Mexico: US Rep. Tom Udall vs. US Rep. Pearce [Open]
03. New Hampshire: Fmr. Gov. Shaheen vs. Senator Sununu-Inc.
04. Colorado: US Rep Mark Udall vs. Fmr. US Rep Schaffer [Open]
Tier 2 – Competitive Races (Toss-up to Lean Incumbent Party)
05. Alaska: Mayor Begich vs. Senator Stevens-Inc.
06. Minnesota: Franken vs. Senator Coleman-Inc.
07. Oregon: St. Rep Merkley vs. Senator Smith-Inc.
08. North Carolina: St. Senate Hagan vs. Senator Dole-Inc.
09. Mississippi-B: Fmr. Gov. Musgrove vs. Senator Wicker-Inc.
10. Maine: US Rep Allen vs. Senator Collins-Inc.
Tier 3 – On the Bubble (between Potentially Competitive & Safe)
11. Texas: St. Rep Noriega vs. Senator Cornyn-Inc.
12. Nebraska: US Rep Nominee Kleeb vs. Fmr. Gov Johanns [Open]
13. Oklahoma: St. Senator Rice vs. Senator Inhofe-Inc.
14. Idaho: Fmr. US Rep LaRocco vs. Lt. Gov. Risch [Open]
15. Kansas: Fmr. US Rep Slattery vs. Senator Roberts-Inc.
16. Kentucky: Fmr. St. Commerce Sec. Lunsford vs. Senator McConnell-Inc.
Tier 4 – Safe GOP Seats for Retention
17. Tennessee: Senator Alexander-Inc.
18. Alabama: Senator Sessions-Inc.
19. Georgia: Senator Chambliss-Inc.
20. South Carolina: Senator Graham-Inc.
21. Wyoming-B: Senator Barrasso-Inc.
22. Mississippi: Senator Cochran-Inc.
23. Wyoming: Senator Enzi-Inc.
Strikingly enough, my Top 10 match the 10 in the first and second tier match SSP’s, whereas my Tier 3, which matches SSP’s Races To Watch, match for SSP’s 5, and I have ID as well in there. The other 7 we both agree are SAFE as SAFE can be for the GOP.
According to a new Mason-Dixon poll Obama is looking decent in Montana. The state has been more friendly to Dems lately in statewide elections. Bill Clinton won the state in 1992, though that was in large part due to Perot being on the ballot. Of note is that the black population is less than 1/2 of 1% in MT.
Dem Primary Poll
Obama – 52
Clinton – 35
General Election Poll
McCain (R) – 47
Obama (D) – 39
http://www.billingsgazette.net…
http://www.missoulian.com/arti…
Does the U of Minn allow you access to the names/addresses of incoming out-of-state students? If so, your local Obama group may want to contact them, give them a Dem pep talk, and (depending on the state where they live) urge them to register and vote in MN rather than, say, IL. Of course in some cases it might be better for them to register in their home state, but my sense is that Franken (as well as Obama) is going to need every vote he can get.
In short this is something you might be able to do even BEFORE the fall term starts when frosh are overwhelmed with being univ students. Perhaps you can help them register when they get to MN. Also that is a useful way to create a data base of the incoming students that you can add to your existing U of MN one.
I hope you have a good master list so that you can identify Dem voters and on election day and make sure that all vote.
Here in MA, I think most schools encourage students to register/vote in their home states. With us being all Dem all the time, there’s no utility in having them vote here. Also good organizations help them with both registration and absentee ballots from their home states. Some states are incredibly slow. Years ago while living abroad, I requested an absentee ballot WELL ahead of the election. The day before the election it reached me–in Belgium. It was the only GE I ever missed.
I wish it were possible to create a nation-wide network linking all colleges and unis so that standardization and coordination of activities would be possible.
Glad to hear you’re doing what you are. It should help. As for Franken, I’m glad you understand the importance of electing Dems. Let’s hope that Hillary supporters understand the same thing.
After being asked politely to quit acting like a jackass on multiple occasions, he still comes back here making petty and childish remarks in response to people who disagree with him. I don’t mind people who disagree with me, but when half the thread is one person being an ass, it’s a bit of a distraction.
Is there a realistic chance that we can finally take down Jon Porter? What has Dina Titus been doing since she announced her candidacy?
If Porter gets reelected in November, we can almost be sure that he’ll be challenging Harry Reid in 2010. And we don’t want that to happen.