Rasmussen (5/22, likely voters, 4/22 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 45 (43)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 47 (50)
(MoE: ±4.5)
That’s a statistical dead heat. This could be a good sign for us, as many polls lately have showed Franken slipping, in the wake of a tax scandal. The key finding in this new poll is, while the candidates' support among members of their respective parties have remained constant since last month– Coleman has 91% of Republicans, and Franken has 76% of Democrats– independent voters have become more disenchanted with Coleman. That being said, with 47% of voters viewing Franken as favorable while 49% view him negatively, he has a higher unfavorability rating than Coleman, who breaks even at 49%-49% for favorable/unfavorable ratings.
There will have to be a few more polls before we can determine whether this one indicates a trend in our favor, but it certainly comes as good news that this race isn't completely out of our reach.
Anyone who was thinking that wasn’t looking at the cross tabs of the old polls.
App/Disapp
Coleman 49/49
Franken 47/49
Kind of odd that 98% of people know who Norm Coleman is, and 96% of people know who Franken is.
This poll is extremely encouraging, as Franken has been hammered with negative press of late. If he is only down a couple points after taking the beating he has taken, then he should feel very good.
I have gone back and forth on this race. At first, I did not want Franken and his baggage to run and preferred someone like Betty McCollum. Then I felt Franken turned out alright and would win. More lately, these tax issues have really made me nervous about the baggage Coleman would trot out during the campaign.
Still, one thing to take away from this race is simple: Not only is Coleman beatable, but we should win, even if Franken is flawed.
Interesting to note that Rasmussen was one of those showing Coleman stretching out (I think it was 50-43 or something like that in his last poll). So this could be a real sign of a re-narrowing race.
But I told ya so. Everyone was going crazy over the past month of polling showing Franken falling back a little. Give him 2 more months and I firmly believe he’ll be back on top in most polls.
The convention will tie Coleman to the Republican Party, and if Pawlenty’s picked the same will apply again. Franken should end up pulling way more than 76% of Democrats and he’ll benefit exponentially the stronger Obama’s performance is.
polls showing a trend. However, this is not unpredictable since Coleman remains Coleman and Franken’s tax problem is understandable and explainable. Had it happened closer to the election I believe it would be difficult for Franken to make a come back. One thing on the 76% of Democrats, there is still at least one other candidate trying to get the nomination which means the party has not come together yet so I would expect that once Franken has the nomination we will see a rise in that number. One thing they need to start doing is polling for a third party candidate since it seems like either Ventura or the guy he appointed to the Senate will be running.
This was only the first instance of his baggage being released. There will be more of varying degree and size. This will be an ongoing strategy by the Coleman campaign, attack Franken on whatever baggage they decide to go after that week and this will result in a constant dip in polling and probably be enough to make him lose.
But I hope I’m wrong, I really do. I wasnt going to vote for him for a long while, I refused. But then I really did think of all you guys and gals and how this win is important not just for Minnesota (which I think if we were this dumb to choose Franken we deserve to lose, I really wouldnt care that much) but the win needs to happen for everyone.
::sigh:: but why Franken…..
nominating convention? is it like this weekend? or nest weekend? i thought that date was approaching pretty quickly
it’ll be single digits right to the end – i think. coleman is flawed because he’s a republican and he is seen as being insincere and opportunistic (a charge that was killing him in ’02 before the plane crash) and franken is seen as flawed because of the tax thing and people aren’t sure that he has the temperament.
al’s drugs/partying lifestyle during the SNL days is kind of expected. i know the GOP would like to use this stuff all year to keep franken off-balance, but i think it will provide diminishing returns for the coleman each time.
We’re ignoring here that the usual way a Senate incumbent loses is by a 49/51-ish squeaker or near-squeaker.
Let’s just assume this is going to be the realistic best outcome of this race, and work from there.
I suspect that if there is it would siphon off a good block of Coleman’s support considering how angry many repubs are with Coleman running to the left over the past year.
Doesn’t completely alleviate my concerns. It shows that Franken’s not DOA like some believed a month ago, but I never believed that.
I was talking to a friend from Minnesota and he was explaining why so many were apprehensive about a Franken run: A ham sandwich running as a (D) could get 45-46% in Minnesota. But there are another about 10-15% of voters who are center or center-left, these people like bi-partisanship, they like moderates. They voted for Klobuchar overwhelmingly and would’ve gone to someone like Betty McCollum easily. Their also very receptive to Obama which is why he has big leads in Minnesota.
But Franken is being portrayed as little more than a hollywood liberal while Coleman continues his moderate posturing.