A Democratic bench…in Wyoming?! – Swing State Project

(This was posted in reply to Andy Dufresne in the recent WY-AL topic, but I thought this topic might merit its own entry.)

In order to build a bench in Wyoming, we’re going to have to start helping Democrats (fundraising and otherwise) to build strong positive reputations in the state, even if they have no chance of winning. I seriously doubt that Rothfuss can win against Enzi short of a scandal (and even with a scandal it’d be hard as heck), but I believe he’s the kind of fresh new Democrat that the party could use. Running for Senate as a scientist and policy wonk concerned about science policy–that’s an admirable goal. It’s almost guaranteed to be insufficient to put him over the top, sure, but we’ve gotta start building a Democratic brand somewhere.

Trauner’s strong chance at the House seat and Freudenthal’s popular governorship are a good groundwork on which to start.

As for Nick Carter and Keith Goodenough (running against Barrasso) and Al Hamburg (also running against Enzi), I don’t know enough about them. But–no offense to them–and I’d love to hear about anything interesting that they’re doing!

(Granted, I’d rather people who aren’t lawyers or career politicians to run for office, because (1) I think legislatures deal with very practical issues that people of other professional backgrounds might be better suited to manage, and (2) I don’t like it when the Republicans can point at us and say that we’re a bunch of trial lawyers, even if they’ve got their own load of trial lawyers on their side anyway.)

And just ’cause I think it’s worth posting here:

http://www.youtube.com/user/Ro…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

GMH: Great post. I am glad you brought this up. I have read up on the state’s politics a good deal because for some reason the politics there interest me.

As I said on the other post regarding Trauner’s good poll, Wyoming is a very hard nut for us to crack. Yet, while we do lack a deep bench, it is possible Democrats to be elected statewide.

The numbers are not pretty. The GOP controls the State House 43-17, and the Senate 23-7. Except for the governorship, Republicans control every statewide office, as well as both U.S. Senate seats and the lone House seat. The last Democrat to win the House seat was Dick Cheney’s predecesor, Tino Roncalio in 1978. Bush carried the state by 41 and 40 points, respectively. The registered voter numbers are eye-popping. Democrats make up 26%, Republicans 62%, and Indies around 12%.

Before you look at those numbers and shrug your shoulders in resignation, there are several reasons for hope. Wyoming may be deep red, but it is not Utah, and Democrats can win statewide office, albeit in the narrowest of circumstances and with a little luck. There are numerous facts to look towards which demonstrate our ability to win in the Cowboy State.

–Three of the last four governors have been Democrats. Edgar Herschler was a popular three-term governor in the 1970s and 1980s. He was followed by Mike Sullivan who served for two terms. After Republican Jim Geringer followed Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney Dave Freudenthal scored a huge upset in 2002 and was overwhelmingly re-elected four years later. It is clear that Wyoming will elect Democrats governor. Recent history bears this out.

–Gov. Dave’s success is particularly instructive. In 2002, State House Speaker Eli Bebout was heavily favored to win the governorship. One poll showed him up 80-to-15. Bebout worked hard to tie Freudenthal to Pres. Clinton (Freudenthal served as the state US Attorney appointed by Clinton). Cheney campaigned for Bebout, and in 2002 President Bush was still wildly popular nationally, even more so in Wyoming. In the end, though, the contentious GOP primary and Freudenthal’s moderate views — pro-gun, pro-death penalty, anti-state income tax — guided the Democrat to a 50-48 win. He was also helped by a strong grassroots effort and plain old hard work. Four years later, Freudenthal trounced Ray Hunkins 70-30.

Freudenthal benefited from the nasty GOP primary in 2002. He was also helped by Gov. Geringer’s failed eight years where Wyoming was one of the only Western states not to capitalize on the 90s’ economic boom. Still, his election and current popularity demonstrate that Democrats can succeed in Wyoming with the right views, hard work, and a little luck.

–I readily admit that the governorship is a far cry from winning federal office, namely the House seat, or dare we dream, one of the two Senate seats. We have come very close. Obviously Gary Trauner came within a hair of beating Barbara Cubin last year. Clearly, he was helped by her lack of popularity in the state, and her threat at the end of a debate to slap the libertarian candidate — one who is in a wheelchair — did not help her.

But Trauner came close by running a campaign similar to Gov. Dave’s. He cut a conservative profile, he expressed moderate views and worked his butt off. As the M-D and R2000/Kos polls demonstrate, Trauner has a base in the state and many people, even Republicans respect his views and work ethic. I expect his eventual opponent to trot out the Trauner-is-from-NY argument, but that by itself will not sink him. Personally, I am more worried about Gov. Dave being off the ballot, and McCain-Enzi-Barrasso being on it above his opponent’s name.

I know it was a long time ago, but the 1988 Senate race in Wyoming bore great similarities to 2006. This is a race that I am fascinated by. Then, the two-term Senator Malcolm Wallop was running for a third term. Wallop was an ultra conservative with views so wacky, he often clashed with Pres. Reagan. Sensing his vulnerabilty, State Sen. John Vinch ran a spirited challenge and lost by a mere 1,300 votes, less than one percent. I think it is safe to say that had Mike Dukakis not been on the ballot that year, Vinich would have won. Here are a couple interesting articles on Vinich:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/f…

http://www.casperstartribune.n…

Vinich had a strong populist streak, boasted an ‘A’ rating from the NRA, and was from the rough-hewn mining town of Hudson in Democratic Fremont County. (Incidentally, a young Joe Trippi worked for him on the 1988 race). While both Vinich and Trauner lost, their heart-breaking losses help provide a good blueprint for how to run a campaign as a Democrat in Wyoming. Naturally, it helped that their opponents were nuts, of course.

Finally, I just wanted to comment on the demographics in Wyoming. The Interstate 80 counties on Wyoming’s southern tier home to Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins and Rock Springs — Albany, Carbon, and Laramie Counties — have large pockets of Democrats that supported Freudenthal and Trauner. Similarly, Teton, Fremont and Natrona are safe bets for good Democratic candidates. The key then is finding candidates who can carry these bluer counties, and then limit their losses elsewhere where the GOP registration advantage is great. It is immensely difficult, but it can be done as demonstrated by Trauner’s ’06 numbers and Freudenthal’s in 2002. Check them out:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

Take Park County, for example, where popular former Sen. Alan Simpson is from, and where the GOP enjoys around a 6-to-1 registration advantage. Gov. Dave only lost by 19 percent, and Trauner lost 29 percent. I have not studied all of the county numbers, but I would be happy to if anyone is interested. Needless to say, Trauner made strong inroads, and hopefully he can finish the job in November.

The right candidate can win in Wyoming, and that candidate is in the mold of Dave Freudenthal, Gary Trauner, and the late John Vinich.

8 thoughts on “A Democratic bench…in Wyoming?!”

JimM says:

June 3, 2008 at 12:25 am

ncsl.org’s Partisan Composition of State Legislatures table says 7/30 state senators and 17/60 state representatives in WY are Democrats. How many people here are ready to step up? (How many of the R districts are competitive?)
Andy Dufresne says:

June 3, 2008 at 5:02 am

GMH: Great post. I am glad you brought this up. I have read up on the state’s politics a good deal because for some reason the politics there interest me.

As I said on the other post regarding Trauner’s good poll, Wyoming is a very hard nut for us to crack. Yet, while we do lack a deep bench, it is possible Democrats to be elected statewide.

The numbers are not pretty. The GOP controls the State House 43-17, and the Senate 23-7. Except for the governorship, Republicans control every statewide office, as well as both U.S. Senate seats and the lone House seat. The last Democrat to win the House seat was Dick Cheney’s predecesor, Tino Roncalio in 1978. Bush carried the state by 41 and 40 points, respectively. The registered voter numbers are eye-popping. Democrats make up 26%, Republicans 62%, and Indies around 12%.

Before you look at those numbers and shrug your shoulders in resignation, there are several reasons for hope. Wyoming may be deep red, but it is not Utah, and Democrats can win statewide office, albeit in the narrowest of circumstances and with a little luck. There are numerous facts to look towards which demonstrate our ability to win in the Cowboy State.

–Three of the last four governors have been Democrats. Edgar Herschler was a popular three-term governor in the 1970s and 1980s. He was followed by Mike Sullivan who served for two terms. After Republican Jim Geringer followed Sullivan, former U.S. Attorney Dave Freudenthal scored a huge upset in 2002 and was overwhelmingly re-elected four years later. It is clear that Wyoming will elect Democrats governor. Recent history bears this out.

–Gov. Dave’s success is particularly instructive. In 2002, State House Speaker Eli Bebout was heavily favored to win the governorship. One poll showed him up 80-to-15. Bebout worked hard to tie Freudenthal to Pres. Clinton (Freudenthal served as the state US Attorney appointed by Clinton). Cheney campaigned for Bebout, and in 2002 President Bush was still wildly popular nationally, even more so in Wyoming. In the end, though, the contentious GOP primary and Freudenthal’s moderate views — pro-gun, pro-death penalty, anti-state income tax — guided the Democrat to a 50-48 win. He was also helped by a strong grassroots effort and plain old hard work. Four years later, Freudenthal trounced Ray Hunkins 70-30.

Freudenthal benefited from the nasty GOP primary in 2002. He was also helped by Gov. Geringer’s failed eight years where Wyoming was one of the only Western states not to capitalize on the 90s’ economic boom. Still, his election and current popularity demonstrate that Democrats can succeed in Wyoming with the right views, hard work, and a little luck.

–I readily admit that the governorship is a far cry from winning federal office, namely the House seat, or dare we dream, one of the two Senate seats. We have come very close. Obviously Gary Trauner came within a hair of beating Barbara Cubin last year. Clearly, he was helped by her lack of popularity in the state, and her threat at the end of a debate to slap the libertarian candidate — one who is in a wheelchair — did not help her.

But Trauner came close by running a campaign similar to Gov. Dave’s. He cut a conservative profile, he expressed moderate views and worked his butt off. As the M-D and R2000/Kos polls demonstrate, Trauner has a base in the state and many people, even Republicans respect his views and work ethic. I expect his eventual opponent to trot out the Trauner-is-from-NY argument, but that by itself will not sink him. Personally, I am more worried about Gov. Dave being off the ballot, and McCain-Enzi-Barrasso being on it above his opponent’s name.

I know it was a long time ago, but the 1988 Senate race in Wyoming bore great similarities to 2006. This is a race that I am fascinated by. Then, the two-term Senator Malcolm Wallop was running for a third term. Wallop was an ultra conservative with views so wacky, he often clashed with Pres. Reagan. Sensing his vulnerabilty, State Sen. John Vinch ran a spirited challenge and lost by a mere 1,300 votes, less than one percent. I think it is safe to say that had Mike Dukakis not been on the ballot that year, Vinich would have won. Here are a couple interesting articles on Vinich:

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/f…

http://www.casperstartribune.n…

Vinich had a strong populist streak, boasted an ‘A’ rating from the NRA, and was from the rough-hewn mining town of Hudson in Democratic Fremont County. (Incidentally, a young Joe Trippi worked for him on the 1988 race). While both Vinich and Trauner lost, their heart-breaking losses help provide a good blueprint for how to run a campaign as a Democrat in Wyoming. Naturally, it helped that their opponents were nuts, of course.

Finally, I just wanted to comment on the demographics in Wyoming. The Interstate 80 counties on Wyoming’s southern tier home to Cheyenne, Laramie, Rawlins and Rock Springs — Albany, Carbon, and Laramie Counties — have large pockets of Democrats that supported Freudenthal and Trauner. Similarly, Teton, Fremont and Natrona are safe bets for good Democratic candidates. The key then is finding candidates who can carry these bluer counties, and then limit their losses elsewhere where the GOP registration advantage is great. It is immensely difficult, but it can be done as demonstrated by Trauner’s ’06 numbers and Freudenthal’s in 2002. Check them out:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…

Take Park County, for example, where popular former Sen. Alan Simpson is from, and where the GOP enjoys around a 6-to-1 registration advantage. Gov. Dave only lost by 19 percent, and Trauner lost 29 percent. I have not studied all of the county numbers, but I would be happy to if anyone is interested. Needless to say, Trauner made strong inroads, and hopefully he can finish the job in November.

The right candidate can win in Wyoming, and that candidate is in the mold of Dave Freudenthal, Gary Trauner, and the late John Vinich.
1. Glenn Magus Harvey says:
  
  June 3, 2008 at 12:39 am
  
  I’ve never lived in Wyoming, nor have I any contact with the state party there. (Which kinda makes it hard for me to really get involved, unfortunately.)
  
  Y’know, it’s kinda strange that I’m talking so much about Wyoming, despite my never having lived there. I think I actually got so into this because I was inspired by Trauner’s campaign two years ago.
  
  I’d be interested to know anything you find, of course.
  
  But I think, just as I was inspired by Trauner’s campaign, I think other people will be inspired to be involved in the state’s Democratic party based on a strong aura of positivity that Democrats everywhere should take advantage of this year. In other words, if we can be the party of hope, sensible solutions, and doing the right thing, that will really help us in the long term. Keep in mind that some people are probably registered Republican just so that they can participate in the probably-more-interesting Republican primaries.

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