The DCCC’s flirtation with NY-13

The DCCC has recently released some notes indicating that they plan on targeting Rep. Vito Fossella (NY-13), my favorite candidate for retirement, rather hard in his quest for a seventh term in 2008.  This from their press release on Jan 12, 2006;

The 2006 cycle proved that ethics matters to average voters. While there were several Republicans defeated this past cycle as a direct result of their ethical lapses, a handful returned to Washington and should be considered among the most vulnerable.

We will aggressively work in districts targeting ethically challenged incumbents like Tim Murphy (PA-18), Gary Miller (CA-42), Rick Renzi (AZ-01), John Doolittle (CA-04), Jerry Lewis (CA-41) and Vito Fossella (NY-13).

First off, if this is an indication of how Rep. Chris Van Hollen will lead the DCCC efforts to pick up more seats in 2008, then by all means my enthusiasm is going to be hard to keep subdued.  However I, like many of us have been burnt by the DCCC in the past, so I am not jumping into this new relationship naively thinking things will be different this time.  In 2004 the DCCC or some individuals associated with the group lead our Democratic candidate Frank Barbaro to believe that they were ready to interject some money into the race.  That money was always just around the corner.  They just toyed with our emotions for a bit and eventually stood us up.  If that was heartbreaking then 2006 just incensed us and lead many to swear off dancing with the DCCC ever again.  After many of the local officials slowly backed out of the race, Stephen Harrison a local lawyer stepped up to take on Rep. Fossella and walked into the nomination due to his fighting spirit.  After being vetted by the local party and being given the nod we find out that the DCCC decided to involve itself, backing a city council member who lived outside the district, in March just eight months before the election. 

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC), which bankrolls House races, yesterday said it would embrace de Blasio’s candidacy. (Staten Island Advance)

De Blasio, whom was being backed by Rep. Rangel, eventually backed out after a month of indecision, leaving Harrison to focus on Rep. Fossella.  One of the bigger problems with this fiasco is that New York state has a late September primary.  This makes a divisive primary an ineffective spring board to then take on a Republican incumbent in under two months.

Curiously though it wasn’t until long after this past November that I came across this piece in the New York Sun from June 28, 2005;

New York Democrats are not alone in their efforts to win the Fossella seat. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has already started priming the 13th Congressional District for 2006.

SNIP

Over Memorial Day weekend, it paid for radio advertisements attacking Mr. Fossella’s vote against a measure that would have expanded Tricare, the military health-insurance program.

SNIP

The organization also commissioned a poll that matched Mr. Fossella with three potential Democratic challengers: City Council Member Michael McMahon, Assemblyman Michael Cusick, and state Senator Diane Savino.

SNIP

In addition to the Congressional Campaign Committee’s efforts, the Seattle-based Democratic Advancement Political Action Committee, a group created in 2002 to raise money for Democratic candidates nationwide, plans to organize grassroots field operations once a Democratic candidate is chosen.

I am bewildered as to where all of this is coming from.  DCCC funded polling?  DCCC funded radio advertising?  Organizing grassroots field operations?  Not surprisingly after the DCCC slumped away from the district eleven months later, no polling was done by the DCCC even though indications were that Fossella had internal polling showing him in trouble.  No radio ads were purchased by the DCCC.  No grassroots field operations were established.  Harrison went on to give Fossella the most competitive race yet, holding him to 57-43 (59-41 in 2004), being outspent by a margin of 13:1. 

And to make this flirtation worse, it was just back in June 2006, after the DCCC backed out of the race, that they put out a press release attacking three Republicans for their unethical lavish travels; Rep. Pombo (since defeated), Rep. Sweeney (since defeated) and Rep. Fossella.  We have heard the story before.

So it is not without some trepidation that I re-read that DCCC statement that they will be going after Fossella in 2008.  But not all developments are worrisome.  On December 18, 2006 I suggested that Rep. Fossella should be moved to new committees, instead of continually rewarding him with seats on both the House Committee on Energy and Commerce and the House Committee on Financial Services.  The reasoning is obvious;

The side benefit, and reason for suggesting these moves is that Rep. Fossella receives large amounts of financial support from the industries that benefit from limited oversight by these two committees; financial institutions and real estate/housing. Fossella’s largest sector donations come from the Finance, Insurance and Real Estate sector, a total of nearly $1.5 million in donations and influence, $358,790 of that just in the last election cycle.

2004-06 Donors (via Opensecrets.org)
1. Securities & Investment: $109,500
3. Real Estate: $86,050
4. Insurance: $60,250
5. Health Professionals: $52,700
7. Accountants: $37,400
9. Commercial Banks: $33,790

So it was with renewed excitement, and new found ability to control the minds of our new Democratic majority leaders, that news broke that Fossella was forced to give up one of his committee assignments.  In the end he choose to leave the House Committee on Financial Services, the largest sector donor to his campaigns.  It also made me appear to know what I was talking about back in December;

Should Fossella get moved from one of his committees he served on last term (04-06) consider that a good sign that this seat is on the DCCC’s list in 08 and that they are going to start the race early.

The actual implications of both of these developments will be more apparent next year, however right now we can see that Fossella’s fund raising abilities should be drastically impacted.  Without some unforeseen major fund raising prowess, Fossella could have trouble cracking $1 million.  To make matters worse for him, he ended his 2006 campaign over $200,000 in debt.  From what I have seen this campaign debt is a first for Fossella, who tends to carry over a nice chunk of cash meaning Democrats typically start out well behind.

So is this seat really in play or are we just setting ourselves up to be stood up and heart broken by the DCCC once again?  That answer will no doubt have a lot to do with who jumps into this race and how effective they are at early fund raising and early volunteer support.  You can follow speculation at 2008 Race Tracker.  However, if Fossella is one of the most ethically challenged (=corrupt) Republicans, can the DCCC really walk away from this district again? 

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