With the Democratic Party coalescing behind City Councilman Michael McMahon, and the GOP similarly backing former Wall Street executive Frank Powers, the race for what was once a safe Republican seat has now been rated a toss-up, according to Congressional Quarterly.
The semi-suburban nature of the district gives it a stronger Republican lean than any other part of New York City, but that advantage is countered by the fact that McMahon is an elected official, representing the northern third of the district on the City Council, while Powers has never held elective office.
Further complicating matters is the fact that Powers still has time to make himself known to voters before November, and McMahon faces a primary challenge from lawyer Stephen Harrison, who ran against the now-scandal-plagued retiring Republican Rep. Vito Fossella in 2006. The district has consistently voted for Fossella over the past few elections, but has split its presidential votes; in 2000, Al Gore won the district with 53% of the vote, but George W. Bush defeated John Kerry there in 2004, with 55%.
this is truly one of the weirdest districts i’ve seen in terms of its PVI. i mean is there another district in the US where Gore got 58% in ’00 and Bush got 57% in ’00. Obviously the “9/11 effect” is in play here. But then can someone share the deeper numbers?
Like:
How did spitzer do here in ’06? clinton in ’06? How many state reps are dems? how many gop? same with state senators.
I want to say – hey we’re going to win this, but bush’s 57% in ’04 and fossella’s 57% in ’06 (when folks like boyda, shea-porter, and loebsack were upsetting well-established republicans around the country) seems rather solid.
Shifted towards Bush due to 9/11. I’d excpect a shift back towards 2000 numbers this year in the presidential election.
I call it “leans Democratic takeover”. NY will be a bloodbath for the NRCC.