Mason-Dixon polls the battle for Nevada’s 3rd CD (6/9-11, likely voters, no trend lines):
Dina Titus (D): 42
Jon Porter (R-inc): 45
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±6.6%)
If this race is as close as the poll suggests, then Porter is in a lot of trouble. He never fared this badly in the polls against Democrat Tessa Hafen, whom he narrowly beat by a 48-47 margin in the 2006 cycle. Indeed, the closest poll of that race by Mason-Dixon came days before the election and showed Porter leading by 46-39. The fact that Titus is as close as she is only six weeks after launching her candidacy is both a testament to her high profile and Porter’s weaknesses, including his glaringly bad 36-56 job performance rating.
Recent registration drives in the state have produced a 20,000-strong Democratic voter registration advantage in the 3rd district, which used to be more evenly divided. This may prove to be Porter’s toughest year yet.
Over in the 2nd CD, the story is a bit different:
Jill Derby (D): 39
Dean Heller (R-inc): 53
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±6.6%)
In her rematch bid against freshman incumbent Heller, Jill Derby is facing an uphill climb in this R+8.2 district. Heller’s approval rating, at 52-44, could be stronger but still is in much better shape than Porter’s.
Derby’s candidacy will help spread the GOP thin, but turning Nevada completely blue will be a tough task.
SSP currently rates NV-02 as Likely Republican and NV-03 as Leans Republican.
Those are great numbers, just increase turnout of democrats by a decent margin in the state, and you can easily have both seats go blue.
Very good numbers.
Nevada will be a close enough race for Obama to spend quite a bit of time there. Hopefully he will have enough coattails to help these two over the top.
Is exactly the kind of candidate we should try to get across the country. She ran a close race in 06 and she should do so again. She may have a hard time winning the race, but even if she loses, as long as she kept the Republicans busy in the district and forced the Republicans to spend money defending that seat.
Nothing annoys me more than unopposed Republicans that aren’t spending money or effort to defend themselves. Especially in a year like this when Democrats have such a huge fundraising advantage!! The more seats the Republicans have to defend, the more seats we can take without a fight and the more money we can spend in other districts.
Its just like Virginia for the senate seat. The DSCC shouldn’t spend a dime there because Warner will crush Gilmore all by himself. At this point, I’d tell all my netrots friends to forget about Virginia and to focus on another state. Mark Warner doesn’t need our money or our help, but people like Mark Begich, Bruce Lunsford, Jeff Merkley, and Scott Kleeb do.
The more seats we make them spend money on, the less money they have to spend attacking Landrieu and defnding the seats we really choose to put pressure on.
It’s a pity she got into this race a little late, but she has revved up the mailing list she developed when she ran for governor, last cycle. I got an appeal by mail, on Friday.
is the utterly small sample sizes and the huge margin of error. I ranted about this at My Silver State.
Today, the LVRJ also published the Mason Dixon poll on the presidential contest with McCain at 44%, Obama at 42% and 14% undecided. A toss-up.
Okay, I thought Titus would not be competitive in NV-03, given her late start. I take it back; I still think Porter is favored, but she does have a shot here.
As for NV-02, it’s not surprising. 2006 was a once-in-a-generation shot at that seat: strong challenger, fractured Republican primary, off-year turnout, and a scandal-plagued Republican at the top of the ticket. Had the Club for Growth-er been nominated, Derby would probably have won. Dean Heller has had time to soothe over the wounds from 2006 and establish himself in his district. I’d be surprised if it’s even within 10 points this time.
The numbers for the Porter-Titus match-up are particularly encouraging for us. This is a marginally GOP district, yes, but Porter is a pretty shrewd politician and we all know how late Titus got in after Daskus dropped out. I believe this is one of a handful of races where a win would signify a larger wave nationally.
In terms of the Second District, this one is going to be a hard nut to crack, but it should probably be fairly close in the end. It is unfortunate for us that the GOP will not have another bloody primary as they did in 2006.
Btw, cool bit of trivia: NV-02 is the largest district (geographically) in the country that is not an at-large district. I am sure that tidbit will impress at cocktail parties 🙂
As James noted, Porters’ job rating is 36/56, but only three percent rate his performance as excellent. That is bad.
Second, this comment from Porters’ campaign deserves special recognition:
When an incumbent’s campaign is saying it is impressive that he is only up three points in a June poll, you know he is in trouble.
I think if Obama carries the state she wins. He will need to win here big to do that so fingers crossed for the double.
The poll with Porter v. Hafen being a 7 point difference was released in early November. If this is a wave election, I have no doubt we’re going to win this seat with Titus.
Something to point out is that 70%+ of Nevada population is clustered in Clark County now. The Reno/Tahoe/Carson City region is about 20%. That leaves around 10% in the vast stretches of the state.
Inside the Nevada political scene the view seems to be that the Las Vegas contests for NV-3 and the state Senate majority are the game this year. Heller-Derby was not thought competitive from the start. But the point to it on the Democratic side might be more about organizing and rallying Democrats in the district for upticket and downticket contests. Derby is the head of the state Democratic Party, after all.
The state is nearly evenly split partisanwise. On pure trend I’d give Democrats a 51-48ish win, but who Barr will take votes away from and how many isn’t easy to predict. With 1% of the statewide vote being a mere 4,500 ballots cast it’s really all about turnout efficiency.
Nevada has a chance to make big political history on November 4. Not only will they help Obama become the first black president if he carries this state. But if the Dems sweep all three districts, then (I think) for the first time ever a state’s entire House delegation will be represented by women.