SurveyUSA (6/10-12, registered voters, 4/30-5/1 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 40 (42)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)
Undecided: 8 (6)
(MoE: ±4%)
The numbers contrast with a recent poll by Rasmussen that pegged this race at 48-45 for Coleman, but they’re a bit closer to the seven-point Coleman lead in a Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll from May.
SUSA has also polled a number of other ballot possibilities, including the presence of Jesse Ventura and former interim Sen. Dean Barkley on the ballot:
Al Franken (D): 31
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 41
Jesse Ventura (I): 23
Undecided: 5Al Franken (D): 37
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 48
Dean Barkley (I): 8
Undecided: 8
SUSA also tested former Democratic candidate Mike Ciresi in the same match-ups, but he doesn’t fare much better than Franken, trailing Coleman by 10 points in the head-to-head.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
(H/T: Minnesota Mike)
So Coleman gained slightly in both SUSA and Rasmussen.
SUSA has Coleman crushing Franken among independents 60-33.
The Ventura effect is different, and brings SUSA and Rasmussen closer. Perhaps SUSA has a greater weighting
of independents. Either way, this isn’t good, and I rate
this race below Oregon abd Alaska as a pickup opportunity.
My Senate rankings right now (in likelihood of a pickup) are:
1A. Virgina
1B. New Mexico
3. New Hampshire
4. Colorado (could make these two 3A and 3b)
5. Alaska
6. Louisiana
7. Oregon
8. New Jersey (Obama better win big here–Lautenberg is
too old)
9. Mississippi B
10. Minnesota
Forecast: 3-5 seat pickup
Hard to believe these polls. It’s probably closer to the Strib poll.
Also Ventura, Barkley and other Independence Party candidates normally start out with numbers like that and in the end only manage 5 percent at best. In 2002 the Independence Candidate to replace Ventura started out leading both the Republican and Democratic candidate. In the end we were stuck with Tim Pawlenty.
Al still has a lot of work to do but this race is still very much in play.
I had hoped that Amy Klobuchar’s crushing 58%-38% victory over Mark Kennedy in 2006 finally meant that the Democrat’s streak of hard luck in senatorial races in Minnesota was at an end, but it seems that this is not to be.
In the previous ten races for Senate, Democrats lost seven. In his two victories, Paul Wellstone just barely broke the 50% barrier each time. Mark Dayton win in 2000 over Rod Grams was actually with less than 50% of the vote. Yet, Minnesota voted Democratic at the presidential level in every election during this period! I don’t understand it. Perhaps residents of the state can explain it to me.
Hopefully yes, since these two haven’t even debated yet. Let’s see what happens when you put a slimebag (Coleman) on the same stage with a clown (Franken).
Oh, and Ventura and Barkley: YOU’RE NOT HELPING
Rasmussen – 3-5 point race, almost constantly
SUSA – 10 point race constantly
Last couple of SUSA polls were explained away from obscure cross tabs. Anyone know if there is something obviously wrong with this poll?
can be found here. Bottom line is that this poll is a methodology difference between SurveyUSA and Rasmussen, who has consistently shown a closer race. So it’s not fantastic news for Franken, but it’s not horrible either, considering the bad press and attacks he’s been fending off from both Republicans and some disaffected Dems locally.
i have an explanation and an 2 observations:
Explanation) the last senator to get much more than 50% in a race before klobuchar’s plus 60% was dave durenberger (R) who won 56% IN 1988! the reason we haven’t had big majorities are 2 – we have had VERY liberal or VERY conservative senators so their ceilings are pretty low AND we have a consistent Independence Party presence. The I candidate won 5% in ’94, 7% in ’96, and 6% in ’00.
that said, i think wellstone was heading for a slightly more convincing win in ’00 – more of a 53-47 with no independence party.
observation 1: what is most striking about these sets of polls is how consistent they’ve been for months. in SUSA, Coleman has led by ten, Rasmussen more like 3. which, in a way is great news because Franken has just had the worst month and a half of his campaign – thanks to the tax issues and betty mccollum’s snit about the playboy article, and it hasn’t hurt his numbers.
observation 2: mikeel’s predictions (3-5 D gain) seem absurdly conservative – even Ensign said they’d be lucky to only lose 3 seats. even without the very strong democratic (anti-bush) wave rolling across the country, VA, NM, CO, NH and AK would have to be considered likely to be picked up by democrats based on polls and money.
if we split the tossups in half (MS-B, LA, OR, NC, MN) – that’s 6 or 7. and there is NO chance that dick zimmer (a “sprightly” 63 year old with no money) is going to beat lautenberg in ’08 on the basis of age. i saw how that worked for andrews – a much stronger candiate than zimmer.