Civitas Institute (6/11-13, registered voters, 5/14-17 in parens):
Kay Hagan (D): 38 (43)
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 48 (45)
(MoE: ±4%)
As both Markos and Todd have pointed out, Civitas (a Republican org) pegs the African-American vote at 18%, which seems to be an undersample (SUSA has it at 20% and CNN’s 2004 exit poll pegged it at 26%). Still, combined with the latest Rasmussen poll which showed Dole climbing back up to 53-39, it does appear that the incumbent’s rebound, paid for by a series of statewide advertisements, is real.
Dole is still in the under-50 danger zone, and this race has plenty of time to heat up.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Republican.
Also could be a “primary bounce” wearing off.
But actually, these are encouraging numbers compared to the last Rasmussen poll. The idea that in 2008 African-American voters will be 8% less of the total voters than they were in 2004 does not make a lot of sense to me.
I feel good about NC in general this year.
Dole has the money advantage, no doubt. And she’s heavily spending it on ads already. Honestly, I have to say the ones I’ve seen are well-done. I personally don’t believe a word of them…but I can how undecided voters who haven’t read up as much on her record could warm up to her after seeing them.
She leads Dole 44-40 in the Piedmont-Triad region. Although that is Hagan’s home region, it is also an area that typically leans Republican.
That makes me think that in an area where Hagan is more familiar to voters, party labels are not as important to GOP voters. Hagan should be able to expand her support once she gets better known.
be that she isn’t actually North Carolinian?