NH-Sen: The Next Santorum?

Roll Call makes the case that John Sununu may become the Rick Santorum of 2008:

“It will close.”

That was the common analysis during the previous cycle’s Senate race in Pennsylvania, when poll after poll showed then-Sen. Rick Santorum (R) trailing his opponent, then-state Treasurer Bob Casey (D). But after millions of dollars of advertising, the race never did close, and Casey won in a romp.

Now, New Hampshire Sen. John Sununu (R) finds himself in a similar predicament.

Through this point last cycle, two-dozen polls showed exactly the same thing; Santorum trailed Casey by an average of 11 points and the incumbent failed to top 43 percent in the ballot test. Indications are that Sununu will suffer the same fate as Santorum.

Sununu has trailed former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen (D) in all but one of 11 polls, dating back to March 2007, by an average of 12 points. And he hasn’t topped 42 percent, except in the mid-December American Research Group poll that was clearly an outlier.

Indeed, the closest that Sununu has been to Shaheen in recent months is seven points behind in a May Rasmussen survey.

As you recall, the $25 million that Santorum spent on his re-election bid didn’t buy him a lick of good news in the polls. Sununu has yet to spend a dime on advertising yet, so it’s too soon to see if his attacks on Shaheen and her record will gain any traction. Historically, though, the record of GOP incumbents coming back from big deficits is slim:

Republicans may have to reach back almost a quarter of a century to find precedent for an incumbent coming from so far behind to win. In 1984, North Carolina Sen. Jesse Helms (R) was running for a third term and found himself down by 20 points to Gov. Jim Hunt (D) with 18 months to go.

“Barring an act of God, Jesse Helms can’t win,” a Washington Post reporter wrote. But Helms had a plan.

According to the book “Tarheel Politics: Myths and Realities” by Paul Luebke, the Senator attacked early, going after Hunt on television in the fall and winter in the year preceding the election. Helms effectively redefined the popular governor and helped himself by polarizing the electorate along racial lines by opposing the Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.

By May 1984, Helms was already back in the lead, but he would go on to win only narrowly, 52 percent to 48 percent. This year, it’s June, and Sununu still trails his opponent.

Helms had something else going for him, as well: Saint Ronnie Reagan’s presence at the top of the ballot. And while Sununu’s camp believes that McCain will be “extremely strong” in the state, Obama’s been outperforming McCain in the latest polls. The presidential race could end up being close, but counting on McCain as a downballot savior strikes me as an extremely dicey proposition for Bununu.