SurveyUSA (likely voters, 6/16-18):
Baron Hill (D-inc): 51
Mike Sodrel (R): 40
Eric Schansberg (L): 4
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Hill is the only freshman House Democrat in Indiana who was expected to face a close contest this year, so these are encouraging numbers given Sodrel’s high profile. Interestingly, the Libertarian candidate takes a miniscule 2% of Dem and GOP voters, but 14% of independents.
It looks like Sodrel picked the wrong year to try to resurrect his political fortunes.
SSP currently rates this race as Leans Democratic.
let’s get ready to rummmmmmmbbbbbbbbbbbbblllllllllllleeeeeeeee……………..
Can he just go away? This run is purely out of spite. I am sure Hill really wants to paste him and finally push him out of politics.
This is some year for incumbent Democrats from R+7 districts. Baron Hill is pasting Sodrel by 11 points. Nancy Boyda is running a similar margin. Ben Chandler and Heath Shuler are cruising. Rick Boucher will not be opposed by a Republican and Tim Holden has a safe run.
Hill is going to have his seat drawn out from under him in ’12.
I don’t see how the Republicans could gerrymander Hill out of his seat without helping Democrats in neighboring seats, and heaven knows they don’t want to do that. Besides, there’s only so much they could do to make that district more Republican-friendly than it already is.