Public Opinion Strategies for Jim Gerlach (5/20-21, likely voters):
Bob Roggio (D): 30
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 56
(MoE: ±4.9%)
POS isn’t one of my favorite firms, but the numbers corroborate the conventional wisdom that Gerlach’s in much better shape this year than he was in the past two cycles, when Democrat Lois Murphy gave him stiff but unsuccessful challenges.
One thing that’s definitely worth noting are the favorability numbers for Gerlach and Roggio. Gerlach sits at a solid 58-20, while Roggio is at an almost comically low 4-1. Yes, those numbers suggest that Roggio has a mere 5% name recognition in this district.
Still, PA-06 is a Dem-trending D+2 district, and if Obama is crushing in November, an upset isn’t out of the question. However, it appears that Gerlach may get lucky this year if these numbers are accurate.
SSP currently rates this race as Likely Republican.
Wow. That’s is hysterical. What did he do before running for Congress? Was he a member of the Witness Protection program, or maybe a spy? lol I think that I have more name recognition in my Congressional District! lol
and it’s a republican poll; right now; given the demographics of the district AND the fact that gerlach won by less than an overwhelming margin last cycle, i call bullshit; i am going to go with the “ham sandwich” theory here, i say that the “ham sandwich” would poll AT LEAST 40% in this district today IF the “ham sandwich” is running as a democrat; obama AND the democratic party are SURGING at this time(national poll TODAY:obama 51 mccain 36); i don’t think this poll is worth john nance garner’s famous “bucket of warm piss”
Easily so. We couldn’t even find a 3rd tier recruit to run in a moderately democratic leaning district in an overwhelmingly pro-dem year? Argggggg…..
http://www.timesleader.com/new…
This poll sounds like complete BS. No way in hell Kanjorski is behind at all much less down 5. PA-11 is something like D+5 and Kanjorski has represented the district for decades. Barletta for those who don’t know is the right-wing nutcase Mayor of Hazleton, PA who has made national headlines for his extreme measures against illegal immigrants.
Barletta challenged Kanjorski in the pro-republican year of 2002 and lost 56-42%. Of course Barletta wasn’t as well known back then. My guess is Kanjorski wins by 10 points minimum, maybe 15 or so.
Bob Roggio is a good candidate – but not one who starts, before the campaign, with name recognition. For that matter, neither did Lois Murphy the first time, though she had the advantage of Emily’s List. And there was no contest in the primary (the other two opponents pulled out, not to mention zero attention was paid to anything but the Presidential race during the PA primary), so Bob spend no money during the primary (which would have driven up recognition at this time and in this poll, but would have hurt in the fall).
Will it be tough to unseat Gerlach? Yes – he’s shown he will make ridiculous assertions in order to get re-elected, and can raise money to do so. (Like claiming Lois Murphy supported the Taliban and rape of women.) However, there are a lot of soft negatives for him left over from those races – people got very annoyed at some of what went on. But I think it’s really possible.
Also, Bob is probably demographically, locationally, and probably idealogically closer to the center of the (gerrymandered) district than Lois was.
Once he starts spending money to introduce himself to the voters (probably by mail – TV in the Philly market is way too expensive to use just for that at this point), those numbers will change radically.
And yes, in this district this year, John Doe (D) could probably get 40-45% of the vote with $0 budget. So the trick is to get from there to 51%. And this year, in this district, that’s doable – if he can stay somewhere in striking range of Gerlach on fundraising, which is possible.
I canvassed for her both races and talk to friends who split their ballots – Rendell (D) for Gov.; Casey (D) for Senate and Gerlach (R) for Congress – the few swing voters I personally know in that District said she was too liberal for them. I wish Dan Wofford would have run again this time. Also, Roggio hurt himself by blasting Gerlach for missing an important vote in Congress – but Gerlach was not there because his mother had died. ouch