SurveyUSA (6/21-23, likely voters):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 45
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 50
(MoE: ±4%)
This is the first poll of the race since Long Thompson picked state Rep. Dennie Oxley as her running mate. The Oxley pick was meant to shore up JLT’s strength in southern Indiana, where Daniels currently leads by 53-42. In Northern Indiana, where JLT’s base is located, she leads by 55-39. But the trouble spot seems to be Indianapolis, where SUSA shows Daniels crushing by a surprising 63-34. If she can’t turn things around in Indianapolis — one of the few Dem-friendly regions in the state — she’ll be facing long odds in November.
Bonus finding: in the Presidential race, Obama is leading McCain by 48-47 in Indiana. Perhaps Indiana will be a swing state this year.
That sound you’re hearing is the thud of dozens of McCain strategists fainting.
This is a winnable race. The DGA should pour every dime of money they have into this race. It could swing 3 House seats. If Mitch stays in control the Republicans will probably knock off a few of the 3 gains we made there in 06. If we keep it we can make it so they become safe Democratic seats.
It looks like the SUSA sample from Indianapolis was a bit off – in the presidential race, it had McCain ahead 49-47 there.
In comparison, in 2004, Kerry won Marion County (Indianapolis) by 1 point. I don’t see Obama performing 10 points better than Kerry statewide but doing worse than him in Indy.
If this poll is accurate (I’m a little skeptical about McCain only ahead by 1), this is fantastic news for Thompson’s campaign. The numbers in Central and Northern Indiana don’t suprise me too much, but I thought she’d be doing a bit better in the South.
This race may see a lot of people crossing party lines. Daniels has been a good governor in the eyes of people who are pretty well off, educated to take advantages of a higher-tech economy — and will win the votes of a lot of moderate suburban types who also very well may vote for Obama. But the people in much of small-town Indiana feel very left behind and ignored by this governor, and many of them who typically vote Republican can be won over by JLT.
Looking at Indiana history, it is suprising that this race is even close. Going back to the 1960s, when we began allowing governors to serve a second term, every incumbant has ran for and won a second term (unless you count Joe Kernan last time, who was never elected governor). Further, none of those races were really even competitive, so unless JLT completely blows it, Mitch Daniels is the first governor in the state to ever be vigorously challenged for a second term.
Souder only won by a narrow 54-46 margin in this heavily republican district in 2006. Mike Montagano has done very well fundraising and may make this one of the sleeper races of the cycle.
fans are holding out on her. There’s no other reason for Daniels to be winning this swingish area 63-34. A bunch of sore losers are supporting Daniels. She needs to get them to get over it. You know it’s interesting though. In Indiana the candidate gets to pick their lg after they win the election, in most other states, the lg has to be picked when you file to run, you have to run as a ticket if it’s a state where the two are on a ticket. I figured that Schelliner would have been the strongest choice, since it would reunite the state party and give a strong base in Marion and Central Indiana.