Rasmussen (6/23, likely voters, 5/15 in parens):
Scott Kleeb (D): 33 (40)
Mike Johanns (R): 60 (55)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Another wild bounce from Rasmussen, but the new numbers are very much in line with a Research 2000 poll from May that had Johanns leading by 58-31.
Johanns remains very popular in Nebraska, with a 73-23 favorability rating. Kleeb, for his part, has good (but more down-to-earth) numbers: 50-35.
Bonus finding: The crosstabs reveal that McCain voters favor Johanns by an 83-13 margin, while Obama voters are more prone to split their tickets, with Kleeb getting 62% to Johanns’ 32%. Busting out the SSP calculator and factoring in undecideds, my math tells me that McCain is leading Obama by roughly 55-40 in the state. The last poll from Rasmussen from the Presidential race (back in May) had McCain leading Obama by 50-39.
Update: Obviously something is up with my math, as Rasmussen’s real NE numbers are 52-36 McCain.
I don’t see us picking it up.
So we’re giving up on the 60 seat majority, eh?
OR, AK, ME, MN all have to be won, then what? That’s still
only a eight seat pickup. I guess Kansas’ Senate race might be in some play, but that’s really about it.
And is Lieberman going to be thrown across the aisle?
Simply because there is still time for a gaffe by Johanns or perhaps this poll is an outlier. However, this is discouraging to say the least. Senate Guru did say Bob Kerrey was going to help raise money for Kleeb. In hindsight, he probably should have run for the House.
Right now, NC, MS-B and KS need the love from the netroots and NDSCC right now. Those are all winnable but still need all the help they can get.
Putting this in perspective, only once since 1958 has either party managed to gain as many as 9 Denate seats in a single election cycle: the Republicans gained 12 seats in 1980.
Adding the six seats picked up in 2006, a 9 seat gain would mean a two election pick up of 15 seats. Excluding the 3 “new seats” from Alaka and Hawaii picked up by the Democrats (or even converting this to a net gain of +2), this is the biggest two cycle gain since the 1930-32-34 period. By either party.
What clouds this, of course, is the application of the 60 rule without even the pretense of a fillibuster. No party has had as many as 60 Senators since the first session under Jimmy Carter (1977-79). Democrats held 61 Senate seats for that two year span. The absolute Republican control of the early Bush years was achieved with paper thin majorities in the House and (for most of the time) Senate.
With a 60 rule and the presence of 40+ Blue Dogs, getting progressive legislation passed will be pretty hard. The moderate Republicans took a huge hit in 2006 and will take a bigger hit in 2008. I look for semi-gridlick with 5 or 6 more Democrats in the Senate and 20-25 more in the House. We’ll be oh so close but not able to shut down the influence of the Blue Dogs or the 60 rule. Hope I’m wrong.
Unfortunately for Kleeb, he’s one of the few Democrats who is up against both a popular Republican and in a ruby red state. One or the other can be overcome, but both will be extremely difficult.
Kleeb could probably win election to U.S. Congress. Unfortunately he’s from the most conservative of the three.
But I will say it again.
This race will be in single digits by election day and I expect Scott Kleeb to win.
If circumstances warrant, I ratchet my numbers up or down. I’d really like a big House gain and sentimentally I’m at 30 but not yet “realistically.” Last cycle, I was guessing 30-35 House seats and 4 or 5 Senate seats on election eve. That’s no indication that this year’s numbers work out to be as accurate.
One factor working in our favor is the number of close seats won by House Republicans in 2006 that seem to be basically abandonned. Can you believe NY-25?
nevertheless, Chuck Hagel is the only Republican to be elected to the Senate over the past thirty years. During this period, four different Democrats were elected: Ed Zorinsky, James Exon, Bob Kerrey and Ben Nelson.
Since Nebraska is not particularly expensive media market, we should not give up on this race given the current political climate.