Public Policy Polling (6/21-22, likely voters):
Daniel Johnson (D): 38
Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±2.9%)
Wow. This is an R+15 district that supported Bush by a 67-33 margin in 2004, and that re-elected McHenry by 62-38 in 2006. However, this race has an outside shot at getting interesting this year, as the odious McHenry recently endured a round of scathing press for compromising troop security by posting video on the internet of the locations of rocket attacks in the Green Zone. McHenry received a primary challenge from veteran Lance Sigmon, but still won with 67% of the vote.
Daniel Johnson is an impressive candidate — a former staffer for Max Cleland and a navy veteran who lost both legs below the knee in Korea while trying to save a fellow crewman. You couldn’t ask for a clearer contrast here.
McHenry is underperforming other Republicans in the district: McCain leads Obama by 52-31 and McCrory leads Perdue in the gubernatorial race by 55-30. Johnson will have his work cut out for him to swim against the GOP tide here, but this is clearly a race worth watching.
McHenry spends a lot of the money he raises outside his district to nurture his leadership ambitions. Unlike Virginia Foxx, who was elected at the same time, he’s relatively low in cash on hand enjoying less than a 2-1 edge in cash on hand as of 4/16: $325,653 to $165,165. The incumbent McHenry has outraised Johnson by roughly a 4-1 margin, $871,844 to $217,311. That half a million was not spent on the primary, folks.
One lesson of the Boehner era is that Republicans do best to keep their funds and not share. Fossella was short on cash and Boehner used that to cut him off at the knees (charitable wording).
McHenry’s bounty should be dead in the water and it is one more lesson to encourage GOP selfishness.
but the Dems in the NC legislature to be as Republican as possible. It is a conceded district.
That McHenry only has an 11 point advantage shows how personally unpopular he is. As PPP notes, Mike Easley couldn’t even win this district.
…he’ll probably be a hardcore Blue Dog and be able to hold this seat for awhile. at least until the next GOP wave year, if such a thing ever happens again.
That we could indeed turn this into another 30+ House seat pickup. If they are polling this badly in what should be solidly red districts this year is going to be 1994 in reverse.
Cleland is the triple-amputee (from Vietnam); Johnson appears to have all his limbs. Neither man served in Korea; Cleland was a child during that war, while Johnson was not yet born.
There are a lot of sordid details about McHenry and the people he associates with. One “associate” is even linked to a murder-suicide in Florida.
This is a perfect example of why the 50 state strategy makes sense. Contest every seat, every time – you never know where you might get a surprise win, and you can tie down the GOP $$ in the home district.
Johnson is a great candidate – he stands head and shoulders above McHenry in every way. Even though this is a lean-red district, Democrats need to make the GOP pay for putting such an imbecile as McHenry in office.