AK-AL: Should I Bail Out?

Earlier this month I made a decision to financially support five House candidates through election day. They were Ethan Berkowitz (AK-AL), Paul Carmouche (LA-04), Betsy Markey, Mark Schauer (MI-07) and Eric Massa (NY-29). However, last night’s defeat of Chris Cannon in Utah convinced me that Don Young will not win his primary and Berkowitz will have to face a much stronger Sean Parnell, and that leaves me with a decision to make. Should I stick with Berkowitz or should I walk away?

When I made the above choices, I did so with the intent of helping to flip those seats from red to blue. I have no interest in “pinning the Republicans down”. The DCCC has millions to do that with, I don’t. So, I am looking at the following options.

1. Stick with Ethan through the end (the argument being he can still win no matter).

2. Keep up support and see what happens in August.

3. Find another House candidate.

4. Help Mark Begich, since the house and senate races cover the same turf and media markets.

If I do choose another candidate, I am looking at Dina Titus, Walt Minnick or Gary Trauner. So, I as always, I am seeking your valuable input and I thank you again for your suggestions.

By what margin will Bob Shamansky win?

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12 thoughts on “AK-AL: Should I Bail Out?”

  1. So even worse case it is still competitive, Berkowitz can still win or at the very least yet another open seat for the GOP to defend. And I would have thought in that case he would need your money more than he would versus the corrupt and now unpopular Young who he thumps in polling. Of the alternatives you mention Titus or Trauner sound good to me.

  2. so he can survive the primary only to be beaten badly by Berkowitz 🙂

    nahh, i can’t fathom the idea of giving money to someone like that.

  3. until the primary. Young may still pull it out. He’s a 3076 term incumbent not a 6 term one.

    If he loses see what the polling looks like and if it looks like a lost cause go with Minnick. Titus will have lots of help from the DCCC and Trauner has the advantage of name rec from his last run and being unopposed in the primary (Larry Grant was running for a long time in the other race). He also was one of the first candidates the DCCC got behind and Obama’s campaign has said they will send staffers to Wyoming mostly to help him.

    Also Minnick’s is one of the top ones for making progress

    http://www.swingstateproject.c…

  4. Since one of two things will likely happen.

    1. Young wins his primary, thus Berkowitz will win handily and won’t need my money.

    2. Young loses his primary, making Parnell a big favorite, dropping this race out of our top 30 house opportunities.

  5. How about just save that money and contribute it all in August if Young wins and if he loses contribute it to another candidate.

  6. Berkowitz is going to have a tough time with Palin’s pawn Parnell, but it is an absolutely winnable race.  Gun to my head, I think Parnell pulls out a narrow victory, but this race would by no be means a Republican favored affair.  

  7. …but only if you like him as a candidate and you think he’ll be progressive. dump Paul Carmouche though, because he’s already favored by many to win, and because he’ll likely turn out to be a Blue Dog after being flush with their dough until and beyond election day. Go with another southern candidate instead like Annette Taddeo, Josh Segall, Judy Feder, Tom Periello or Larry Kissell.

  8. He’s got a great shot to win.  Sali’s past poll #s for an incumbent are atrocious (15% reelect).  And it would be a “statement” race to win in IDAHO (ie. IL and MS)

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