Rasmussen (6/24, likely voters, 5/27 in parens):
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (47)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Musgrove still pulls even with Wicker despite having a poorer favorability rating (47-43 to Wicker’s 56-32), probably due to Musgrove being better known as a former Governor. Still, Wicker has begun putting his healthy cash-on-hand lead to good use by airing ads in Southern Mississippi, where he is largely unknown.
Here’s a bright spot from the poll which might give us hope for Mississippi’s future: Voters between ages 18-29 favor Musgrove by a whopping 68-27 margin. Wow. Conversely, voters 65 years and older prefer Wicker by a 60-34 margin. Let’s hope that Barack Obama’s candidacy can energize young Mississippians.
Bonus finding: Speaking of Obama, McCain still only has a 50-44 lead in Mississippi.
UPDATE: (by Crisitunity) The same poll also covered incumbent R Thad Cochran vs. ex-state rep. Erik Fleming in MS-Sen-A (the regularly scheduled Senate election). No surprises: Cochran is up in that one, 59-32.
Seems like now would be a good time to soften Wicker where he isn’t well known. I wonder how Musgrove’s fundraising has been.
Is “Obama also dominates among the youngest set of voters (age 18-29), 75% to 22%. McCain holds the advantage in voters of all other age groups.” realistic? I know that Obama appeals to young voters but this is ridiculous. Unless AA make up a predominate amount of this age group I can’t really see how Obama manages to get 75% of the vote. Can someone explain this?
Got it off wikipedia:
White Black
Growth 2000-05 (total population) 1.62% 4.33%
2000 (total population) 62.37% 36.66%
2005 (total population) 61.72% 37.24%
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M…
As you can see the white share of the population is dropping quite fast while the black population is soaring.
At what rates do whites and blacks vote in MS, and how much white support do Dems usually get in the state? White support for Democrats in the South must be even more abysmal than I imagined if the black population is so large and we still get blown out every time.
This is wonderful news. This is really a great pick up opportunity for Democrats, and I hope that the DSCC will help Musgrove compete financially. One step closer to padding the Democratic majority.
Mississippi stands on the edge of a profound shift in its electorate.
To see how, look at the CNN Exit Polls from ’04. http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTIO…
John Kerry won by 63% to 37% landslide in Mississippi — if you look only at voters under age 30.
We got crushed among voters 65 and older.
The George Wallace generation went to the polls looking to find a Dixiecrat, or a Reagan fresh from a speech undermining the Civil Rights Movement. Bush was exactly what they were looking for and W got 75% of their vote, Kerry only 25%.
But the ongoing demographic change is sweeping. The Dixiecrat cohort is losing strength as the Grim Reaper takes away the most racist voters at a rapid rate. Almost 2% of all those who voted in 2004 die each year, and naturally enough they are heavily from the group that voted for Bush 3 to 1.
Voters who came of age after the searing struggle over desegregation was finished have a different view of the world. Some who were under 30 and voted for Kerry almost 2 to 1 are now in the 30-44 cohort, where Kerry already was able to get a fairly respectable 42%. And kids who were 16 when Kerry was our candidate will be part of the 18-29 cohort in this election, and if anything they will be even more Democratic than their older sisters and brothers.
So the South moves inexorably toward racial moderation. Karl Rove and his ilk understand their predicament. For over 100 years, it was a winning tactic in Southern elections to portray your opponent as “a ni**er lover”– Willie Horton, anyone? — but the old Hate Potion Number Nine wasn’t working so well any more. They tried to find new ni**ers using gays, illegal immigrants, Moslems, secularists instead. Because we’re very close to the tipping point where overtly racist voters aren’t enough to make the difference any more, not even in Mississippi.
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/20…
As a % of voters:
White – 65%
Black – 34%
White Voters:
Bush – 85%
Kerry – 14%
Black Voters:
Kerry – 90%
Bush – 10%
Kerry underperformed. On average I’d say expect whites to go republican 80-85% and blacks 90% or a little higher democratic at the presidential level.
MILLIONS of southern blacks who are eligible voters remain unregistered AND of those that are registered, MILLIONS more fail to actually go and vote; that WON’T be the case this cycle; these polls clearly indicate that MS is in play
I don’t recall anyone predicting that we’d takeover the MS State Senate in 2007 but we did. In fact many thought we’d lose seats. We also came closer than expected in the Governor’s race, despite having a weak candidate against a mostly popular incumbent.