The Last Contested House Primaries for 2008

The surprise victory of Jason Chaffetz in the UT-03 Republican primary last week over Chris Cannon was a bit of a wake-up call, letting us all know this is a year where ‘changiness’ is big in both parties’ bases right now. This was the third successful primary challenge of the year (following the defeats of Wayne Gilchrest in MD-01 and Al Wynn in MD-04). This isn’t an outrageously high number of successful primaries against incumbents: almost all cycles have at least one or two. But if there’s one more, for a total of four, it would be the most successful primaries of any year since 1992, when there were a whopping 19.

Let’s take a look at the eight most competitive remaining House primaries against incumbents, ordered chronologically. (For more information on these races, see CQ’s recent article on this topic.)

July 15

GA-12: This is the primary that has garnered the most netroots attention (if a bit belatedly). While this race turns primarily on the demographics of GA-12, there’s also an ideological component, as John Barrow is one of the most conservative Democrats in the House… and unlike the other most conservative House Dems, he’s in a D+2 seat and doesn’t have the excuse of a deep red district.

State Senator Regina Thomas from Savannah is challenging Barrow from the left. Thomas is African-American and Barrow is white; this is significant in a district that’s 45% African-American and where at least two-thirds of the Democratic electorate is African-American. While that might seem to give Thomas an inherent advantage, most of the local political figures (and some national figures, including Obama) have endorsed Barrow, and Thomas’s money situation is a mystery (we’re still awaiting her first FEC report). Her main impediment is simply low name recognition, especially in Augusta, the other city at the other end of the district. Her strategy seems to be to focus on word of mouth via black churches to get the word out, which will be interesting to see if it works in the face of Barrow’s big bank account.

Regardless of who wins the primary, this should be a likely hold this cycle, as the Dems face third-tier Republican opposition (either former congressional aide John Stone or former radio talk show host Ben Crystal). This district has been very competitive at the general election level since its creation, though; Barrow won by only 864 votes in 2006, although that’s largely because he was facing Max Burns, the previous GOP representative that Barrow unseated in 2004.

More over the flip…

GA-10: On the Republican side, the primary pits incumbent Paul Broun Jr. against challenger State Rep. Barry Fleming. Broun is vulnerable because he more or less won accidentally in the 2007 special election to replace the deceased Charlie Norwood: he surprisingly sneaked past the Democratic challenger to make it an all-GOP runoff, and then surprisingly won the runoff against better-known State Sen. Jim Whitehead on the back of crossover votes from Democrats in Athens, after comments by the Augusta-based Whitehead ridiculing Athens.

The inference that Broun isn’t a ‘real’ Republican because Democrats helped him beat the establishment candidate is laughable, as Broun has one of the most conservative records of all House members. But Broun has established himself as more of a libertarian-leaning maverick, so the local GOP would probably prefer to see a more housebroken representative. Democrat and Iraq War vet Bobby Saxon awaits the victor, although this is an R+13 district where the GOP has to be favored.

August 5

MI-13: The scandal engulfing Detroit mayor Kwame Kilpatrick (and his attempts to quash an investigation into his affairs) may trickle upstream all the way to his mom, Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick. She’s facing two primary challengers, State Senator Martha Scott and former State Rep. Mary Waters. Kilpatrick’s defense of her son, who is refusing to resign, has become the main issue in the race, especially in the ads that Waters is running. With no runoff, Kilpatrick has a good shot at surviving in the face of two different challengers; the only action is in the Democratic primary in this Detroit-based D+33 district.

August 7

TN-09: Here’s another race, like GA-12, where an incumbent white man is facing off against an African-American woman in a district where most of the Democratic voters are African-American. However, there’s a key difference here: in this race, the white guy, Steve Cohen, is the progressive, and the black woman, Nikki Tinker, the more conservative option.

Cohen won the primary in 2006 (to replace the retiring Harold Ford Jr. in the Memphis-based seat) with only 31% of the vote against 14 other competitors, and Tinker, one of the losing candidates, has a cleaner shot at him this year (as well as EMILY’s List on her side). Polling has shown Cohen to be in relatively safe position so far, but like Regina Thomas, Tinker seems to be focusing on the black churches for getting traction (and also acting a bit slow to distance herself from anti-Semitism and homophobia coming from those quarters). Whoever wins the Democratic primary will have no trouble retaining this D+18 seat.

TN-01: At the other end of the state, in Tennessee’s most conservative (R+14) district, Republican freshman David Davis is facing a primary challenge. Davis won with only 22% of the vote in a 12-person field, and he’s facing one of his 2006 challengers, Johnson City mayor Phil Roe. This race doesn’t seem to be about much (Roe alleges Davis is too “beholden to special interests”), other than Roe feeling like he deserves another shot after a close race, but the well-known Roe may be able to make it competitive by not having to deal with 10 other wannabes in the way. Either way, this seat stays GOP, as it hasn’t elected a Democrat since 1880.

August 12

CO-05: Like TN-01, here’s another seat where an unappealing wingnut (Doug Lamborn, so odious that retiring fellow wingnut Joel Hefley refused to endorse him after he won the nomination) won in a crowded field (6 candidates) with low numbers (27%) in a hardcore Republican seat (R+16). Lamborn faces off against two of the candidates from last time, Jeff Crank (Hefley’s former aide) and retired AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn.

In an unusual twist, Crank and Rayburn entered into an extraordinary gentleman’s agreement where a poll would decide who would back out and have a clear shot at Lamborn, avoiding the vote-splitting dilemma. In good Republican fashion, the gentleman’s agreement collapsed and Crank and Rayburn are now savaging each other. The joint Crank/Rayburn poll indicates Lamborn is likely to survive, and face Dem Hal Bidlack in this Colorado Springs-based district.

August 26

AK-AL: Don Young, pork-barreler par excellence and a House institution since 1973, faces a two-pronged challenge: first, he faces Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and State Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux in the primary, and if he survives that, he’s up against State House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz (or possibly 2006 candidate Diane Benson) in the general. Young has been more or less fatally wounded by allegations of bribery, corruption, and general malfeasance, so it’s really a question of whether the Republicans can take him out before we can.

Polling shows Young in deep trouble, losing the primary to Parnell, an ally of popular Gov. Sarah Palin and from the “clean” wing of the Alaskan Republicans, who is running with Club for Growth support. Unfortunately, that same poll also shows Parnell beating Berkowitz, while Berkowitz demolishes Young (easily overcoming Alaska’s R+14 lean… although given Obama’s strength in Alaska, look for that PVI to change dramatically). In other words, this primary is another case of “Vote for the Crook: It’s Important.”

September 6

LA-02: Bill Jefferson has to have a huge target on his back, as he may be the only member of the House running for re-election who’s mired deeper in corruption allegations than Young (as Doolittle and Renzi had the common sense to step down). Most people wouldn’t bounce back from the discovery of a freezer full of bribe money, but Jefferson still managed to win re-election in a 2006 runoff after these allegations came to light.

The primary field is still entirely unclear, as Louisiana’s candidate qualifying period is July 9 to 11. In fact, it’s unclear whether Jefferson himself might back out at the last minute; the pendulum has to be swinging closer to him, seeing as how Jefferson’s sister just copped a plea in an unrelated charity fraud case and has pledged ‘truthful cooperation’ with authorities. Former(?) Jefferson ally State Rep. Cedric Richmond has already announced that he will be running. (I add the question mark because I’m suspicious he may be running as a spoiler to dilute the change vote to allow Jefferson to squeak through into a runoff, or that he may know that Jefferson isn’t running again.) Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee has also announced, and all eyes are on whether 2006 challenger (and now State Sen.) Karen Carter tries again. In any event, the Democratic primary is the only election in this (pre-Katrina) D+28 district.