Benenson Strategy Group for Bob Roggio (6/21-24, likely voters):
Bob Roggio (D): 32
Jim Gerlach (R-inc): 49
Undecided: 20
(MoE: ±4.4%)
These results aren’t far off from Gerlach’s recent internal, which had Roggio trailing by 56-30.
Roggio’s biggest and most immediate hurdle is clearing the “some dude” status that he currently enjoys. His name recognition is a rock bottom 10% in this most recent poll (compared to 82% for Gerlach).
Despite his sizable lead, Gerlach can’t rest on his laurels. The Philly suburbs are trending bluer and bluer by the day, especially in Montgomery and Bucks counties, where Democrats have expanded their registration advantage by another 7000 voters since the state’s April 22nd primary.
Gerlach is living on borrowed time — whether we’ll get him in this election or in the next few years, we’ll still knock him out eventually — unless he can make it to the next round of redistricting and is somehow given more favorable lines (and that’s a lot of “ifs”).
GOP Rep Geoff Davis leads Michael Kelley 54-41.
In 2004, this district was the closest in the state with Gerlach edging Lois Murphy by 6,300 votes and a 51.0% to 49.0% margin. In 2006, Pennsylvania Democrats had the biggest haul in the country gaining a US Senate seat and no less than four House seats. Lois Murphy cut the vote deficit in half to 3,155 and (in an off year election) cut the percentage margin as well to 50.7% to 49.3%. Close but not quite.
Pennsylvania Democrats mostly overcame a decade and a half of down times that night. They elected their first Senator since Harris Wofford’s partial term (Nov., 1991), and regained control of the House delegation they had lost to Newt and later gerymander with a bang and a flourish. Even in their moment of triumph, however, there were still reminders. Two seats that “should” be theirs, Gerlach’s and Charlie Dent’s, remained in Republican hands. If 1992 is the base year (last Democratic controlled congress pre-Newt), PA Democrats lagged badly behind every other state in the Northeast.
That’s right. In 1992, Democrats won a handsome 258 seats to 176 for the Republicans and one seat held by Socialist “Independent” Bernie Sanders in Vermont. By 2006, Democrats nationally lagged by over 20 seats; Democrats in the Northeast were well ahead going from a 55-41-1 lead to a 68-24 massacre. New York went from 18-13 to 23-6 (and maybe 26-3 this year); Massachussetts from 8-2 to 10-0; Connecticut from 2-4 to 4-1; Maine from 1-1 to 2-0; New Hampshire from 0-2 to 2-0; Maryland from 5-3 to 6-2. Only Pennsylvania which went from 13-8 to 11-8 was worse. Not much, but worse. The answer: PA-6 (and to a lesser extent PA-15).
People had their stories about why this district fared poorly. Lois Murphy lacked her own GOTV operation relying on Ed Rendell’s. Good but not as good as Chris Murphy’s or Joe Sestak’s. Well, Roggio seems less but in this year who knows?
The key thing seems to be that nobody knows who the hell he is. Maybe Obama needs to swing through and get him speaking at one of his Philly rallies so as to boost his profile?
Name recognition alone won’t do it, but if it’s up near 60% then we’ll start to be able to tell more from the polling.
he’ll be redistrcited, it’s almost a guarantee with Rendell as governor, a state house majority, and hopefully these margins will continue to grow.