Bendixen & Associates (6/6-22, registered voters) polls our trio of South Florida congressional races.
FL-25:
Joe Garcia (D): 39
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 44
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±5%)
FL-21:
Raul Martinez (D): 37
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 41
Undecided: 22
(MoE: ±5%)
FL-18:
Annette Taddeo (D): 31
Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-inc): 58
Undecided: 11
(MoE: ±5%)
The McClatchy article on these polls doesn’t specify whether or not Bendixen tested registered or likely voters, but given that the poll overlaps with this similarly-targeted Bendixen poll from the same time frame, we’ll make the assumption that this is a poll of registered voters.
While two weeks is an awfully long time frame for a congressional poll, the numbers are quite good for Garcia and Martinez, who are putting the GOP’s traditional grip on South Florida’s Cuban community to the test. Less great are the numbers for Taddeo, but undoubtedly she lags in name recognition compared to Martinez (a longtime former mayor of Hialeah) and Garcia (the former director of the Cuban-American National Foundation and Miami-Dade Democratic Chair).
This could be a transformative year in South Florida.
SSP currently rates these races as Likely Republican, but our next round of ratings will come next week and some of these races may be in need of an upgrade.
And does anyone know anything about this polling company?
Nevertheless, this is great news. Hopefully Martinez and Garcia had good fundraising quarters.
I think Taddeo has the toughest draw of the three of them. Ilenna Ros-Lehitnen is a pretty skilled politician (and the two brothers always impressed me as not very bright) who on some issues actually is pretty moderate — her record on gay rights is better than a lot of Democrats, which plays well to many of her constituents in the Keys.
Further, I wonder if Taddeo might be hurt being the one challenger who is not Cuban. I hate that that type of ethnic politics matters, but it might in that district.
we’d be so good in FL-25 and FL-21 but not as bad in FL-18. I figured there would be more undecideds in FL-18 but we’ll see what happens.
Very good place to be for FL-21 and FL-25.
Martinez, Garcia, Taddeo. Although I’m going to have to bump Martinez and Garcia a bit higher on my list.
From what I’ve seen he seems to be better at campaigning, has huge money contributions and generally is a more likable guy than Martinez. I would bet that he does the best out of the three once his name recognition increases.