Rasmussen takes another crack at Missouri’s gubernatorial race (7/7, likely voters, 6/3 in parens):
Jay Nixon (D): 49 (54)
Kenny Hulshof (R): 38 (34)Jay Nixon (D): 46 (56)
Sarah Steelman (R): 37 (34)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
This race was bound to tighten up, and the flurry of ads and activity in the GOP primary seems have given both Republican candidates a boost.
Public Policy Polling has similar numbers (7/2-5, likely voters):
Jay Nixon (D): 47
Kenny Hulshof (R): 37Jay Nixon (D): 44
Sarah Steelman (R): 39
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Looking ahead to the 2010 Senate race, PPP finds that Republican incumbent Kit Bond could be in for a tough race if he chooses to run again:
Robin Carnahan (D): 42
Kit Bond (R-inc): 44Susan Montee (D): 35
Kit Bond (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±3.6%)
Bond’s approvals are at 39%, a very poor number for a longtime incumbent, while his disapproval rating is at 33%, indicating a serious pool of disgruntled voters. Carnahan is the Secretary of State for Missouri and comes from a well-known political family; she would bring a deep pool of name recognition to a Senate race. Montee is the state Auditor, and was first elected statewide in 2006 to fill the vacant office left behind by Claire McCaskill. Both appear to be solid candidates to run against Bond (or for his open seat), if they’re interested.
Bonus findings: PPP shows McCain’t leading Obama by 47-44 in Missouri, while Rasmu pegs the race at a slightly larger margin for the GOP: 47-42.
SSP currently rates MO-Gov as Leans Democratic.
The 2010 Senate numbers. Carnahan starting off that close with 2 years to go against a well known incumbent who has first elected to the Senate in 86. (That is not something I should know off the top of my head…) And a former governor, wow…
2010 will be another EXCELLENT year. And imagine Missouri of all states having 2 Democratic women Senators. Not to say anything against Missouri, but California, sure, Washington, why not, Missouri, nicely done.
is not the state treasurer. She’s the State Auditor.
We have to win this Governorship in order to prevent a republican gerrymander in 2012. Same goes for Indiana.
I don’t think the polling will change much for the Senate Race. Senate Races tend to be close in Missouri and as we saw in 2006 with McCaskill, she was neck and neck with him for months. I wanna see another poll before deciding that this is a tossup. Kit Bond seems more popular than Jim Talent ever was. We also don’t know if he’s going to run for reelection or if Carnahan will run in the first place.