Jesse Ventura just told Larry King that he won’t run for Senate. Phew.
Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters, 6/11 in parens) has released another poll of the race today:
Al Franken (D): 44 (45)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 42 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Here’s what a three-way match-up would’ve looked like:
Al Franken (D): 34 (32)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 36 (39)
Jesse Ventura (I): 22 (24)
Encouraging news for Franken, but it should be noted that Rasmussen has tended to be more favorable to Franken than some other pollsters like SUSA and Quinnipiac.
UPDATE: And on cue, SurveyUSA brings a very different look at the race (7/11-13, likely voters, 6/10-12 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 39 (40)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 52 (52)
Undecided: 8
(MoE: ±3.9%)
Bizarrely, SUSA shows that Coleman’s strongest voting bloc is the 18-34 demographic, who give him an implausibly high 58-31 lead. I find it difficult to believe that younger voters are Franken’s weakest link, so it’s hard for me to fully buy this poll and others like it from SUSA showing the same pattern.
Now let’s get back to business.
God Ventura is a huge tool, just wanted to sell more books.
But you have to admit the guy is great at getting publicity. First he isn’t, then it seems so likely that he is. And now out again.
This is good news. I hope Franken can take advantage of this and raise his poll numbers.
One has Franken up 2%, the other has Coleman leading by 13%. Details here.
The whole thing just stank of “Get me on the air so I can flog my book.”
http://kstp.com/kstpImages/Sen…
Coleman 52 – Franken 39
I like the Rasmussan poll better 🙁
I knew Ventura was just being a big ol’ publicity whore. There’s no way he would have been able to win this seat, but I’d imagine he would have been able to siphon enough votes from independents/libertarians/marginal DFL voters to propel Coleman to a win. I think this will ultimately be a very competitive race due in no small part to Franken’s prodigious fundraising and the likelihood of a big Obama win in Minnesota.
SurveyUSA is polling the 18-34 year old age group entirely too Republican. There last Presidential poll in the state only showed Obama up by 1% and had both candidates TIED with this age group. Impossible. Rasmussen has consistently shown margins for the presidential race around 15% which I believe is much more accurate than a 1% lead.
There is simply now way this age bracket is voting that Republican, no freakin way.
SUSA always has us down 0 and Rasmussen a dead heat. Usually I’m inclined to believe SUSA over Rasmussen, but I just don’t see us down anywhere near 10+ points.
is too favorable to us and SUSA’s is too favorable to the Republicans.
I think the truth is somewhere in between. If the election was held today I think Norm would get re-elected 52.5-47.5 or so. Thankfully the election is a long way off and the DSCC has enough money to shatter Norm’s moderate image and I think we can win this one.
That is something favorable for progressives and I believe it was a big reason for Ventura’s upset win in 1998.
That 2008 is not like 10 years ago, when he actually beat Coleman and some DFLer in a three way race to become the governor of Minnesota. My theory is his outsider status was way too much for Minnesotans to swallow considering he lived out of state for most of the year. Al Franken actually has been living in the state since early 2007 and had before helped raised money through his Midwest Values PAC for MN candidates in 2006, so people know him.
That kind of outsider status is what people are looking for against an established Washington insider such as Coleman.
….I haven’t been comfortable with this race at all and Ventura getting in could shake things up. And this race could use a good shake up.
That said Ventura has been trending leftward the last few years and has generally been supportive of Democratic policies and could end up hurting us more than the Repubs.
NE SEN
Kleeb: $698,000 with $450,000 CoS
Johanns: $682,000 with $1.2 mil CoS
33D-32R-21I—where’s the other 14%?
Only 13% Liberal?–which ties the 13% who declined to state
an ideology.
And Coleman leading among the 18-34 demographic?
So I think it’s a five point race right now, which may not be all that bad considering the scandals that have weakened Franken.
Al Franken’s going to need a bigger lead than 2% if he wants to win. Coleman will get a small boost from the GOP convention, and I doubt Obama will be doing a lot of campaigning in Minnesota this year. I doubt he will need to do a lot of campaigning in Minnesota this year.
http://www.minnpost.com/storie…
My gut tells me that if the election were today it would be something like 52-48 Coleman, not counting 3rd party effects since I don’t know who else is running. I’m confident that this race won’t be decided by more than a 3 or 4 point margin either way in the end.