SurveyUSA (7/18-20, likely voters, 6/6-8 in parens):
John Yarmuth (D-inc): 53 (57)
Anne Northup (R): 43 (40)
(MoE: ±4%)
This latest poll from SUSA is awfully similar to one of Northup’s internal polls from last month, showing Yarmuth leading by 51-43. Considering Northup’s high name recognition, this is not a bad place for Yarmuth to start off in.
I would say this race is not going to be one of the top races. In fact, Nortup was the first official incumbent to lose on Election night. Her district was won by Obama overwhelmingly, the only one in all of Kentucky. She could not even beat Fletcher, an ethically tained Governor. The likelihood of her beating Yarmuth, with an increase in African-American turnout is beyond practical. In fact, why even consider the race Lean Democrat when it should really be Likely Democrat.
Too many of these pollsters and political pundits like to make conservative rankings. Just a little study of voting patters and turnout and the past failures of Big Oil Annie is enough to conclude that she won’t get past the finish line this year. The funniest part of studying this race is that Big Oil Annie wants to make it about energy costs (this coming from an individual that collected more from Big Oil than anyone else in the House, except those from Texas).
Big Oil wants Annie to win, however the voters of Louisville are likely to give her a third strike out in three straight years.
The funniest part is that KY right-wing blogs are celebrating the fact that she’s down 10 points.
That is right around where I imagine the race will be on election day.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Udall (D)- 47 (49)
Schaffer (R)- 43 (40)
Fav/Unfav:
Udall – 54/38
Schaffer – 54/38
How the heck does Schaffer have favorables that high? Has he been holding back and not spending much of that huge sash reserve yet?
Shaheen – 58%
Sununu – 36%
http://americanresearchgroup.com/