Rasmussen (7/23, likely voters) (6/18 in parentheses):
Jeanne Shaheen (D): 50 (53)
John Sununu (R-inc.): 45 (39)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The UNH poll that came out yesterday showing a 46-42 lead for Shaheen seemed pretty sketchy, especially when looking at the crosstabs. But now along comes the newest poll from Rasmussen and it shows a margin that’s also narrowed quite a bit. (With leaners pushed, it’s 51-45 for Shaheen.)
The same sample shows Obama leading McCain 47-41 (49-45 when leaners are pushed), which is typical for New Hampshire. Just based on that, it doesn’t seem to be an unusually Republican-heavy sample.
NH-01 – Moved from Leans D to Tossup
NV-03 – Moved from Leans R to Tossup
http://www.cookpolitical.com/
I agree with the NV-03 move, but certainly not the NH-01 move. I guess Cook is taking that ridiculous poll showing Shea-Porter behind seriously. No idea why.
That you can’t sleep on this race, but I don’t know what the explanation for Sununu’s increase is, but here’s my hypothesis. Shaheen only went down 3 points, ie statistical noise. The difference is Sununu going up 6 points, outside the MOE. I think this is mainly Republicans coming home. People who are voting for John McCain, Republicans or Right-leaning Indies, but were undecided about this race for whatever reason are coming home to Sununu.
I wonder what happened that caused the polls to tighten up so much. In NH Shaheen was up by high single digits for months then all of a sudden she is only up by midd single digits.
The same thing in CO Udall has been up since early 2007 and his lead had been moving into the high single digits now he is barely ahead, even with all of Schefiles scandals.
What is going on i wonder…
Well, looks like things are back to normal. Shaheen peaks around 50% and Sununu still trails.
But it’s only a 5 point lead. That UNH had Shaheen at a 4 point lead, so maybe there is some change there.
I think Shaheen still will win this seat in November, the question is by how much. It may be too early to say, but it looks like she may not get a “Santorum-style blowout” of double digits as Pennsylvania in 2006. Maybe somewhere around the 2002 NH Senate numbers, but this time towards Shaheen.
Or maybe it’s just New Hampshire’s style. It’s an independently minded state, and McCain is not as offending as Bush. And even Bush won NH in 2000. It’s just one of those politically wacky states.