Just as we did for the House race scene (and as we did last quarter), we present our rankings according to the SSP Cash Power Index for competitive senate races. The main difference is that we include open seats in this chart; where there is no incumbent senator, the incumbent party candidate is used as a stand-in.
Note that the number of races on this list is a lot smaller than last time; that’s because some folks have lost primaries, and also because we’ve left off the races which, at this point, are not competitive. So while it might look like Rick Noriega, say, has jumped a bunch, that’s at least in part because the likes of Greg Fischer and Tony Raimondo aren’t around anymore. Also, Tom Udall was previously ranked twice because he faced two primary opponents at the time.
UPDATE: Chart updated to reflect inclusion of KS-Sen.
| Cash Power Rank | 1Q Rank | State | Challenger | Party | CoH | Incumbent | Party | CoH | Cash Power Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | VA | Warner | D | $5,103 | Gilmore | R | $117 | 4,362% |
| 2 | 2/3 | NM | Udall, T. | D | $2,889 | Pearce | R | $533 | 542% |
| 3 | 4 | CO | Udall, M. | D | $3,958 | Schaffer | R | $2,817 | 141% |
| 4 | 5 | ME | Allen | D | $3,129 | Collins | R-inc. | $5,133 | 61% |
| 5 | 6 | MN | Franken | D | $4,216 | Coleman | R-inc. | $7,209 | 58% |
| 6 | 9 | LA | Kennedy | R | $2,706 | Landrieu | D-inc. | $5,515 | 49% |
| 7 | 13 | AK | Begich | D | $804 | Stevens | R-inc. | $1,681 | 48% |
| 8 | 18 | NC | Hagan | D | $1,214 | Dole | R-inc. | $2,706 | 45% |
| 9 | 8 | NH | Shaheen | D | $2,158 | Bununu | R-inc. | $5,105 | 42% |
| 10 | 12 | NE | Kleeb | D | $454 | Johanns | R | $1,247 | 36% |
| 11 | (n/a) | NJ | Zimmer | R | $411 | Lautenberg | D-inc. | $1,291 | 32% |
| 12 | 11 | OK | Rice | D | $748 | Inhofe | R-inc. | $2,459 | 30% |
| 13 | 15 | MS | Musgrove | D | $716 | Wicker | R-inc. | $2,953 | 24% |
| 14 | (n/a) | ID | Rammell | I | $244 | Risch | R | $1,022 | 24% |
| 15 | 10 | ID | LaRocco | D | $242 | Risch | R | $1,022 | 24% |
| 16 | 19 | KS | Slattery | D | $599 | Roberts | R-inc. | $2,870 | 21% |
| 17 | 22 | KY | Lunsford | D | $1,341 | McConnell | R-inc. | $9,136 | 15% |
| 18 | 20 | OR | Merkley | D | $569 | Smith | R-inc. | $4,452 | 13% |
| 19 | 26 | TX | Noriega | D | $916 | Cornyn | R-inc. | $9,368 | 10% |
| 20 | 21 | GA | Martin | D | $330 | Chambliss | R-inc. | $4,055 | 8% |
| 21 | (n/a) | GA | Jones | “D” | $150 | Chambliss | R-inc. | $4,055 | 4% |
Guess it’s no stranger a name than Sununu is.
We’ll probably be able to equal or outspend many of the repub incumbents on this list thanks to the DSCC’s massive cash advantage. They’ve already committed many millions to many Dems on that list.
LOL.
No bounce for Pearce. Looks like that brutal primary crushed his chances.
http://www.rasmussenreports.co…
Udall (D)- 59 (58)
Pearce (R)- 34 (30)
But not hugely surprising. The DSCC has put NE, KS, OK, GA and TX on it’s races to watch list. Kleeb is clearly the strongest of those candidates (why don’t you have Kansas on the list though? Slatts is second) and would be the most progressive, IMO. With a million dollar investment the DSCC can close the gap in this super cheap media market.
Between Hagan’s COH and DSCC’s $6 million in ads, she is going to close the gap on Dole big time. Dole is still surviving on name recognition and star power. When NC voters find out what a tool of W Dole has been – and who Hagan is, they will move over to Kay in droves.
Ever since Udall jumped in I thought it was too good to be true. I’ve kept this race pegged at leans or likely Dem for the longest time. We can’t possibly win a NM Senate Seat in a landslide, can we? Looks like the answer is “yes we can”!
in NM-01 and NM-02.
Likewise, it sure would be great if Mark Warner spent heavily on turnout in VA-05 and VA-02, although in Virginia the presidential race is probably the more important focus.
Hopefully McCain’s campaign will have collapsed by the end of the third debate, but one can’t really count on that.