Democratic voter registration is up sharply in southwestern Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District, and political analysts said Friday that Republican U.S. Rep. Christopher Shays may face the toughest challenge of his career.
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Since Jan. 1, 11,329 new Democrats have registered in the 17-town district. Only 3,462 Republicans have signed up so far this year and only 8,299 unaffiliated voters.
Shays beat 2006 Dem nominee Diane Farrell by 7,060 votes. According to this article, new Dem registrations outstrip Republican sign-ups in the district by 7,867. Keep in mind, though, that during the last presidential election, Shays beat Farrell by double his 2006 margin, or 14,160 votes.
Nonetheless, this is troubling news for Republicans and good news for us. Combined with a potential spike in African American turnout (blacks make up 11% of the district’s population), this could finally spell the end for Chris Shays.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
CQ politics just moved this race from Leans Republican to No Clear Favorite. I think this is the perfect time to take Shays out we should focus the energy Obama has in Connecticut towards Jim Himes. Connecticut doesn’t really have any other federal races that aren’t predetermined so the CDP and a super majority of Connecticut Democratic volunteers should be sent out to CT-04.
Delta Dem voter registration is up ~20K over the Repubs in NV-03 since 2006 election. We are looking good in NV-03.
But this race leans Democratic right now, NOT Republican. Shays is like Connecticut’s version of Nick Spano, the ex-NY State Senator from Yonkers, who hung on for cycle after cycle before the demographics and ideology of his district finally doomed him two years ago.
Himes IMO is a 2-1 favorite to turn New England’s House delegation 100% Democratic.
As a resident of the district I can tell you that Shays is in trouble, yet it has nothing to do with a higher African-American voter turnout in Bridgeport (of all places). Bridgeport has consistently had one of the lower voter turnouts in the state. In fact, other cities which are much smaller have higher voter turnout than Bridgeport (Greenwich, Norwalk, and Fairfield). Shays problem may be with Hispanics who compose 13% of the electorate here. In Bridgeport most are Brazilian or Puerto Rican. Stamford and Norwalk most are Central American. Shays has adopted a radical approach toward the immigration issue, even wanting to make it a felony to be in the county illegally (of coure….tax cutting Republicans want to make it a felony, so I could only wonder who would be paying for new jails).
However, I have constantly argued that Himes is too liberal for the district. Lamont did not even win here (actually Lamont didn’t win any congressional district in CT). If elected, Himes will have a battle on his hand come 2010. I have changed my rating from Leans Dem to Too Close to Call for two reasons:
– Himes has begun running ads on television introducing himself.
– Himes fundraising has been very competitive with Shays.
**Tomorrow I will be posting my most competitive house races from Alabama-Montana. Unfortunately, I have done a much thorough research process than some of these other pundits. Lots of surprises in the works. Look forward tomorrow. Lots of Republican seats are on the burner.