Race Ratings
(Alabama – Montana)
Dem Favored
AZ 5 – Mitchell (D)
CT 2 – Courtney (D)
IL 8 – Bean (D)
Likely Dem
AL 5 – Open Seat (Cramer – D)
AZ 1 – Open Seat (Renzi – R)
CA 11 – McNerney (D)
CT 5 – Murphy (D)
IL 14 – Foster (D)
KY 3 – Yarmuth (D)
MN 1 – Walz (D)
Leans Dem
AZ 8 – Giffords (D)
FL 24 – Feeney (R) **
GA 8 – Marshall (D)
IL 11 – Open Seat (Weller- R) **
IN 9 – Hill (D)
KS 2 – Boyda (D)
KS 3 – Moore (D)
LA 4 – Open Seat (McCrery – R) **
MI 7 – Walberg (R) **
MS 1 – Childers (D)
Too Close to Call
CT 4 – Shays (R)
FL 16 – Mahoney (D)
FL 21 – Diaz-Balart, Lincoln (R)
KY 2 – Open Seat (Lewis – R)
LA 6 – Cazayoux (D)
MD 1 – Open Seat (Gilchrest – R)
MI 9 – Knollenberg (R)
MN 3 – Open Seat (Ramstad – R)
MO 6 – Graves (R)
Leans Rep
AL 2 – Open Seat (Everett – R)
CA 4 – Open Seat (Doolittle – R)
FL 25 – Diaz-Balart, Mario (R)
ID 1 – Sali (R)
IL 10 – Kirk (R)
IL 18 – LaHood (R)
Likely Rep
AL 3 – Rogers (R)
AZ 3 – Shadegg (R)
CA 50 – Bilbray (R)
CO 4 – Musgrave (R)
FL 8 – Keller (R)
FL 13 – Buchanan (R)
FL 18 – Ros-Lehtinen (R)
IL 6 – Roskam (R)
IA 4 – Latham (R)
LA 7 – Boustany (R)
MN 6 – Bachmann (R)
Rep Favored
CA 3 – Lungren (R)
CA 26 – Dreier (R)
CA 41 – Lewis (R)
CA 46 – Rohrbacher (R)
CA 52 – Open Seat (Hunter – R)
CO 5 – Lamborn (R)
FL 5 – Brown-Waite (R)
FL 9 – Bilirakis (R)
FL 10 – Young (R)
FL 14 – Mack (R)
FL 15 – Open Seat (Weldon – R)
IL 13 – Biggert (R)
IN 3 – Souder (R)
IN 4 – Buyer (R)
MN 2 – Kline (R)
**Ratings for Alaska – AL are not included (dependent more or less on whether Young survives an inter-party challenge). Ratings for MO – 9, an open seat, are also not included (dependent on whom is the Democratic nominee).
Dem Seat Gains – Feeney, McCrery, Renzi, Walberg, and Weller.
Dem Seats most at Risk – Cazayoux and Mahoney.
***Details for each race are explained on an additional diary following this one.***
I would also like to mention three Democratic candidates that I feel have been underestimated, either due to low fundraising on their part or a lack of analyzing specific races. In analyzing the district and candidate against the incumbent, I have determined that these could indeed be far more competitive races than currently noted by most experts. These races are in the following districts:
FL 15 – Open Seat (Weldon)
IN 4 – Buyer
IA 4 – Latham
**If you have any questions or disagreements regarding any of these predictions then please note them on the message board and I will follow up to explain what was my determing factor.