NC-Sen: Dole Leads By Nine in New Poll

Public Policy Polling (7/23-27, likely voters, 6/26-29 in parens):

Kay Hagan (D): 40 (37)

Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 49 (51)

(MoE: ±3.4%)

This is the second poll in a row to show Dole with a nine-point lead, and with neither candidate on the airwaves right now, I think we can assume that this race is moving into a holding pattern around this mark for now. The good news is that Hagan’s well within striking distance, and I expect this race to tighten up considerably in the fall.

Bonus finding: McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.

7 thoughts on “NC-Sen: Dole Leads By Nine in New Poll”

  1. hagan’s slide has stopped, which tells me that it was Dole’s ad campaign that moved the numbers. Soon both sides will be engaged, the polls will tighten and this will remain a top-tier race.

  2. getting closer . . .

    It seems Schumer is determined to have Hagen win as well, she’ll have every resource she’ll ever want to win the race. I expect a nail biting photo finish come Nov. here.

  3. McCain only leads Obama in the state by 47-44.

    If Obama wins as big a share of the white vote as shown in this poll (a big if), he’ll win North Carolina.  The PPP poll has the black vote on 82 O/8 M/5 B.  Obama will win 90% of the black vote.  Such an outcome, again holding the white vote the same, would have Obama winning in this poll.

  4. The poll included 77% white – 20% black breakdown.  The actual breakdown of registered voters as of 12/31/07 was 75% white – 23% black.

    If you add those black voters in, the races would be:

    Obama 46%

    McCain 45%

    Dole 47%

    Hagan 42%

    And even this ignores thousands of new voter registrations from 2008, when the contested presidential primary came to NC in May.

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