Rasmussen (7/28, likely voters, 6/23 in parens):
Scott Kleeb (D): 34 (33)
Mike Johanns (R): 60 (60)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
I’ve included “leaners” in the above numbers (because, really, there’s no point in not doing so). The story lies in the favorability numbers, where Johanns has a monster 70-27 rating. Kleeb’s numbers, not surprisingly, are much lower: 48-37.
It’s going to take some serious dynamite to shake up this race.
Not buyer’s remorse, because I never bought the notion that Kleeb should run statewide so soon after his close race for the House. I think he needed some seasoning, perhaps time to add office-holding to his CV or something. But some overeager posters appeared to create a commotion on the blogs. And now here we are.
It’s painful to see this race with Johanns given a 100% probability of winning on Five ThirtyEight.com. And much money and energy were spent in a primary against a self-funder, IIRC. Take half that money and put it into Andrew Rice’s race in Oklahoma … well, not my money, so not my call. But I’m sorry to see an open seat opportunity in a wave year, realigning election fizzle out like this.
Is probably a 56-44 loss for Kleeb. More likely though it’s probably gonna end up around 58-42 or 60-40.
is not an incumbent, though he may feel like one given his history.