Rasmussen (7/30, likely voters, 7/17 in parens):
Mark Begich (D): 50 (50)
Ted Stevens (R-inc): 37 (41)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
In a testament to Stevens’ legacy in the state, 50% of voters still have a favorable opinion of the senator, and only 33% want him to resign. Still, his negatives, at 47%, are almost as high, and voters seem ready to turn the page.
So what would happen if Ted Stevens lost his primary? Rasmussen polls that scenario, too:
Mark Begich (D): 50
Dave Cuddy (R): 35Mark Begich (D): 55
Vic Vickers (R): 22
Cuddy, a former state representative who spent a considerable sum of his own resources on a 1996 primary challenge of Ted Stevens, has more residual name recognition and would be a stronger opponent than Vickers (a recent transplant from Florida). It appears that he would not exactly be a formidable opponent for Begich in the general election, although a full 30% of voters have no opinion of him, possibly leaving Cuddy with some room for growth.
The crosstabs have some more interesting numbers, including 44% who say that Stevens’ indictment makes them less likely to vote for GOP Rep. Don Young this fall. 41% say that it has no impact.
Also interesting, in the wake of “troopergate“: Gov. Sarah Palin’s approval rating is 64-36. Very high, but not quite as astronomical as it was in months past.
(1) At least immediately, Begich’s support is unchanged while four percent goes from Stevens to undecided. Stevens has a big well of support.
(2) That drop for Palin is pretty big. Keep in mind that she has polled consistently in the 80s (though I am not sure if any of those were Rasmussen polls). To drop that far, that quickly is good news for us as it may end up hurting Sean Parnell. At this point, I think Young is toast but I am holding out hope that the GOP primary turnout is small, and is dominated by Young loyalists.
In terms of the Senate, my initial reaction was Stevens would win the primary and then drop out to let the state party tap a replacement. It now appears that that thinking may be wrong. The big issue is: just who would or could tell Stevens to drop out? Answer: not only no one, but he is the last person on earth to listen to people. This is a guy who ran for re-election after his house was raided by the Feds for crying out loud! He does what he wants.
Love today’s round of polling.
Everybody in Alaska has pretty much known for years that Stevens is a crook but an effective crook in terms of getting the loot for Alaska. I saw something on the net where Stevens was quoted as saying that he lost a lot of money in the mini-crash on Wall Street in 1987 and since then his principal motivation was to get the money back and as much extra as possible.
The classic Stevens holdup was the trailers for Katrina refugees. A firm in Missippi offered them for $52,000 each but was turned down. Instead, the Stevens gang took over buying the same trailers for $52,000 and routing the transactions through a Native American Corporation in Alaska. The price was marked up $36,000 to $88,000 with a small amount going to the natives and most to the Stevens gang. Suffice it to say that the VECO payola is just the icing on the baked Alaska.
as well.
And the GOP primary for that matter.
I think its probably a mistake to poll how the other Republicans in the race would do against Begich. They suffer from the very thing that will have them lose the GOP primary; no one knows who they are.
If in some amazing turn of events say Cuddy were to beat Stevens I would expect the polls to tighten greatly.
it would be excellent to see a 5th seat leaning Dem take over in the new few weeks.
of like 20 points for Palin if Rass is using the same methodology as other pollsters.
Worst case scenario is that Stevens or someone wins and drops out to let the Alaska GOP put a clean person in (who that is I have no idea). Even then I would rate Begich as a slight favorite.
Cuddy would make it a race beacuse he’s rich and has a decent background but again I’d give a edge to Begich.
If Vickers wins it is clearly lean Begich. More so then Colorado or New Hampshire, maybe even New Mexico.
Best case is that Stevens wins the primary, stays on the ballot but gets indicted just before the election, late enough that they can’t replace him though.