Research 2000 for Daily Kos (7/28-30, likely voters):
Larry LaRocco (D): 32
Jim Risch (R): 42
Rex Rammell (I): 5
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The last poll that we’ve seen of this race, a Lake Research internal for LaRocco from late May, showed a 43-28-6 split. Voters in deep red Idaho still don’t seem to be taking much of a liking to Risch, despite him being the only candidate who has aired statewide ads for this race so far.
LaRocco will have a lot of work to do in order to pull even with Risch (and we can’t deny that he’s certainly been working hard), but the dynamics of this race — especially with right-wing independent Rammell hoping to play the spoiler — could give us something interesting to watch in the fall.
SSP has now added ID-Sen to its list of Races to Watch.
but I remember us all saying that about our 15% deficit in Nebraska and 9% in Kansas, both of which have slipped significantly against us. But that was during a huge Dem spike in the polls, this one is coming at kind of a low point in polls for many candidates (Franken, Allen, Hagan somewhat, Musgrove) so this certainly is an excellent place to be.
If Rex Rammell gets 15% of the vote, LaRocco can win this. Otherwise, I think Idaho’s just too blood-red for it to work.
Larry LaRocco has to be the luckiest politician in the country in this cycle.
Recall that he announced his run against an entrenched, popular, longtime incumbent, who, as it turned out, was busted for doing a tap dance in an airport mens room. And while the honorable incumbent is not gay, he said so, he subsequently decided not to stand for re-election for reasons related to the fact that he is not gay, or is widely perceived to be not gay, or not.
Now LaRocco is up for an open seat, going against a less popular candidate of the establishment. But there’s this third candidate, defecting from the majority party because he hates that candidate and aims to undermine his candidacy even if, he said, it means the Democrat is elected.
Not one but two imploding candidacies in a row! And LaRocco has done nothing to get his hands dirty during all this sordid business. He’s just “let go and let God” — innocently watching his enemies be smitten with Old Testament caliber plagues.
That’s damn good luck or divine intervention. Anyway, don’t bet against our man Larry: He’s on a roll!
And I’m looking for a dozen or so pick-ups in the Senate, like what we got in 1932 and 1958, or what the Repubs grabbed back in 1980.
from Red State Rebel on DailyKos, Boise State says the demographics are as follows:
So if we take that as the actual turnout (by no means am I saying that’s what will actually occur), then the adjusted figures from the R2K poll would be this.
Has the DSCC given LaRocco any money?
I know they are going to dump money in Oregon, Minnesota, Maine, Colorado, and Mississippi, but would spending $500,000 in Idaho really hurt the DSCC’s wallet? LaRocco has been running a pretty decent campaign, and Idaho Dems are surely thinking bold, so why not spend half a million or even a million in a cheap state to remind Idaho voters how much they dislike Risch and see what happens.
With a sleeper race in ID-01, it surely seems an opportune time to put a small bit of money in the state.