The polls just won’t stop today. SurveyUSA (7/28-30, likely voters, 6/16-18):
Baron Hill (D-inc): 49 (51)
Mike Sodrel (R): 42 (40)
Eric Schansberg (L): 4 (4)
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Not much movement here since June, which is not surprising. Hill is the only freshman Democrat in Indiana who is expected to have a competitive race this year, but Sodrel hasn’t really been lighting many fires so far. By November, I think he might come to regret wasting yet another year of his life campaigning against Baron Hill.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
I am already looking forward to the 2010 rematch! (or if Long-Tlompson does not win the governorship, the 2012 rematch that will occur due to redistricting).
IN-9 is a headache.
THE FIGHTING 9TH!!!
I think Hill ends up winning this by around 5 points or so. The worst thing Sodrel did for himself for this campaign was actually serve two years in Congress — and had to come home and explain votes for trade measures that hurt the district and against expanding veterans benefits. Further, after he lost, like a spoiled child he essentially shut his office down and stopped doing the necessary constituent service things that are part of his job. The only song he can sing in response seems to be that Baron Hill is for flag burning illegal gay arabic speaking immigrants who want to abort their children. No one in the 9th can’t say they know exactly who these two are — and especially comparing the jobs they’ve done in the actual job they are running for can only help Hill.
Looks like Sodrel and Darcy Burner are in about the same situation right now.
Both candidates have near universal name recognition. The end result of this race is unlikely to change much between now and November. The high single digits is probably what Hill will win by.