Boyda wins… sort of. From the Topeka Capitol-Journal:
U.S. Rep. Nancy Bodya, D-Kan., said today the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee complied with her request to withdraw plans for $1.2 million in campaign commercials in her district.
She expressed concern recently the influx of independent advertising in her 2nd District campaign against Republican Lynn Jenkins might too heavily influence the outcome.
“This is terrific news for anyone who believes that Kansas voters should control Kansas campaigns,” Boyda said. “By canceling their ads, the DCCC has given Kansas the chance to run our election without Washington interference.”
Reid Wilson has more:
But the real winners could be State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins and national Republicans. Boyda represents one of the most Republican seats held by a Democrat, and Jenkins, who won the GOP primary on Tuesday, is seen as a moderate with a better chance of winning than her more conservative primary opponent. Now, Democrats are passing up the opportunity to use the advertising money to define Jenkins as she reloads from the costly primary.
The National Republican Congressional Committee deserves credit too, having stayed on Boyda over the past several weeks and making a big deal about her association with her party nationally, and GOP strategists gloated about Democrats’ decision to pull the money.
I’m of two minds on this one. On the one hand, some of the DC Dems that I’ve talked to are actually glad that Jim Ryun lost the GOP primary on Tuesday, as they considered him (and his name recognition) to be the more formidable opponent rather than the “moderate” Jenkins. Indeed, the lone poll we’ve seen of this race showed Boyda in better shape against Jenkins (although she’s probably received a primary bump by now). So the DCCC could be canceling its reservation at least in part because they feel that Boyda is less vulnerable.
On the other hand, Republicans in Kansas have made the DCCC’s assistance an issue only because Boyda clearly chafes at the idea of DC operatives getting involved in her campaign. But Boyda’s distaste for the DCCC’s money didn’t stop the committee from spending heavily on last-minute ads for this race in 2006, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they pulled a similar move (if they felt it necessary) this year. The DCCC could be canceling its planned buy for now only to clear a “distraction” for Boyda off the table, but are likely monitoring the situation closely in case they have to intervene later. But that’s all just speculation on my part.
Good for her! One can only imagine the tangle of strings attached to that $1.2 million..
I would take those polling numbers with a big handful of salt because polls showed Ryun beating Jenkins, and Jenkins won. I believe Ryun would have been the weaker candidate because the ’06 results were as much a rejection of Ryun (an extreme conservative and airhead to boot) as anything else. But with Jenkins as the candidate (guaranteed to be well-funded), Boyda’s chances are probably at best 50-50.
Ryun decisively had the money. He outrasied Boyda by nearly a factor of two last quarter; Boyda outraised Jenkins by nearly a factor of two. I’d assume that Jenkins just burned through all of her cash, so expect Boyda to have to a CoH advantage in the neighborhood of $1 million.
I think Boyda’ll be fine, and this means that $1.2 million can go towards picking up another couple seats…
Arizona-01
Lean D <— Toss Up
New York-13
Likely D <— Lean D
New York-25
Likely D <— Lean D
New York-26
Toss Up —> Lean R
and i think davis has opened his bullshit cannon and started firing at jon powers. there’s no way davis wins this primary, but he could spew enough crap to help the R’s win the seat. i guess that’s what the cook report thinks.
there was a reason that davis, that worthless fuck, overturned the millionaire’s amendment.
i just went over ot the albany project to check it out and it looks ugly.
Boyda’s 2nd Congressional District in Kansas differs significantly from other Congressional Districts throughout the United States, as well as the other three Congressional Districts in Kansas. For example, it was Ross Perot’s 2nd best Congressional District in 1992. Perot defeated both Bush Sr. and Clinton in some 2nd Congressional District counties. Any successful 2nd Congressional District Democrat cannot rely on Democrats plus moderate Republicans, the formula that works elsewhere in Kansas. For in Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District, Democrats plus moderate Republicans does not get 50%. A successful Democrat must instead rely on Democrats and a bloc of voters that often moves en masse; a bloc that simultaneously distrusts big business and big government; a bloc with hair trigger sensitivity to betrayal. Boyda has not pandered to this bloc, but she deeply understands that she must not stray in a fundamental way from who she has held herself out to be or she will certainly lose them. Thus DCCC participation would sink her ship. Moreover, in her landslide loss in 2004 she did rely on DCCC. She has run campaigns both ways. She knows that Democrats in Washington do not understand Kansas’ 2nd Congressional District and that they will never, ever get it. Contributions to Boyda are used in lean, disciplined, and efficient campaigns that Washington Democrats will never understand.
during the special election, I can understand how she feels. In this masterpiece of GOP gerrymandering, there was no way that the GOPer could be beaten, but it became such a circus that I hope that we haven’t turned off swing voters for years to come. It also raised false hopes amongst some naive progressives, which of course got crushed on election night. It was a textbook case of how to spend MILLIONS of dollars (from both sides) and change the outcome by about a point… Truly, “a tale of sound and fury… signifying nothing.”
BTW, Ryan’s defeat is one more indication of the waning influence of REALLY hard core evangelicals on the GOP and politics in general. Most people outside of Kansas remember Ryun for his athletic achievement but he was also one of the hardest of the hard core evangelicals. He was (is?)part of a scary Christian cult and commune.
2004 was the evangelicals high tide. Now it’s all downhill. And it’s they’re own fault. Anybody who thinks that Rove and Cheney have an ounce of genuine spirituality between the two of them is crackers. Denial only works for so long…
I live in the KS 2nd District and know first hand how well Nancy has been received all across the district since she assumed this seat in January 2007. Jenkins may be a tougher opponent in that she is a moderate, but Nancy will out campaign her all over the district, out raise her in money, and out debate Jenkins whenever they debate. Lynn is a light weight when it comes to national politics, and she will toe the Republican party line. Historically, since 1971 (37 years) this seat has been Democrat control 22 years (Roy 4, Keys 4, Slattery 12 and Boyda 2). This is not a solid Republican seat as some suggest, but more of a swing district. Nancy should be able to hold this one as long as she stays focused and grounded on the issues facing the 2nd District and our country.