This one has been making the rounds today, but we finally have the opportunity to cut ‘er open and take a peak at its innards. SurveyUSA (8/13-14, likely voters, 7/11-13 in parens):
Al Franken (D): 39 (39)
Norm Coleman (R-inc): 46 (52)
Other: 11 (n/a)
(MoE: ±3.8%)
A 13-point gap turns into a 7-point gap, but what’s the X factor here? The Independence Party, who have fielded seven candidates in their primary field, including Dean Barkley (whose 15 minutes expired five and a half years ago). “Other” wasn’t an option in the July poll, and the change in methodology, it seems, has helped shave a few points off Coleman’s hide.
SUSA’s age breakdowns have attracted some skepticism in their prior polls, and Coleman continues to hold a 48-36 lead among 18-34 year-olds, but that’s down sharply from the 58-31 lead he held in the July poll.
Bonus finding: In the presidential race, Obama edges McCain by a mere two points. However, SUSA is finally showing Obama with a clear lead among younger voters; he holds a 51-43 lead among the 18-34 bracket, which seems more reasonable than the 48-48 tie among these voters in SUSA’s June poll of Minnesota.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Republican.
They are terrible at polling generals because they don’t weigh anything. Their sample size of D/R/I changes every time so there’s no real trend line.
They keep showing Oregon as a three or four point race while Rasmussen has Obama 11 or 12 points ahead. And they had McCain tied with him in Massachusetts in February.
Why does everyone treat them as the gold standard? Because they got a couple of primaries right? Well, they also got a couple way wrong (Alabama, Missouri, Indiana, North Carolina).
All three major pollers Rass, Quin. and USA used to have polls with Obama ahead by high double digits now its now single digits. What is happening; how can Obama’s lead fall by around 14% in the course of a month?
There’s no way Franken and Obama are behind there, let alone doing worse there than they do in the rest of the state.
Some shift to the GOP among young people going on in MN? I don’t know how else to explain some of these results. Kerry won 18-29 year old voters by 16, and you would think Obama would be atleast close to that, if not passing it. The 2002 MN-SEN race didn’t have exit polls so I can’t see that, but does Norm Coleman have some sort of cross-party appeal among young voters, because Klobuchar won them by 20, and you would think Franken would be ahead by 8-12