Capital Survey Research Center (likely voters, date unknown 8/18):
Joshua Segall (D): 33
Mike Rogers (R-inc): 54
(n=468)
No word yet on when this poll was taken, but I’m assuming it was around or during the same time frame of the CSRC’s AL-02 poll (8/6-7,11), which showed Democrat Bobby Bright leading Jay Love by 10 points.
This district was drawn by the Alabama legislature to elect a Democrat, but after a close loss in 2002, no Dems have been able to wage a viable campaign against Rogers, and this R+4.3 district has quickly fallen way down on the target list. However, attorney Joshua Segall is making a go of it this year, and he’s raised a respectable amount so far.
It will be a very tough climb for him to pull even with Rogers this year, but Segall has put together enough resources to merit watching. Over at Doc’s Political Parlor, Danny contends that Segall will have an especially tough time, because the district is split between three media markets and is therefore considerably expensive for a candidate to raise his name ID. While there is some truth to that, SSP’s Bang-for-the-Buck Index shows that AL-03 is roughly in the middle of the pack of targeted races when it comes to the expense of TV buys. And while it’s certainly not as dirt cheap as AL-02 is, the 3rd CD is a far cry from more expensive targets in Flordia, Texas, and Illinois.
On another note, many GOP partisans questioned the veracity of the CSRC’s AL-02 poll (given that they poll for the Alabama Education Association, a staunch Dem ally), but I’m sure that these same hacks have no complaints with their work in the 3rd CD. It’s all or nothing, fellas.
Well, it could have been back in 1975 or ’80. But since God has given us cable TV, it’s only one media market, almost coterminous with the district lines.
Cable TV can allow an advertiser to buy delivery by zip code. O.K., maybe the cable systems in Alabama aren’t quite that sophisticated. Maybe a campaign there has to buy each county, or each cable system, whole and entire. In that case it looks from the map like they’d have to waste a few bucks buying part of the city of Montgomery and part of the town of Tallahassee, the parts not in the district. But even that kind of cable buy would be far cheaper than buying any over-the-air time in three different broadcast TV markets with signals that wastefully spill into neighboring districts and states.
In this day and age, any campaign that is buying broadcast TV when they could be buying cable TV actually deserves to lose.
Is that Segall has gained since the last poll on this race. The last poll showed Rogers ahead 54%-26% with 20% undecided. Segall gained 7% and Rogers stayed at 54%. The poll numbers are still bleak for Segall, but at least he gained 7% and that is pretty important.
What is troubling is that he is still polling 21% points behind Rogers although he has been running a strong campaign. Segall is running a much more serious campaign than the 2004 and 2006 challengers who spent little and ran disastrous campaigns. Rogers is having to run hard this year so perhaps that is why the gap is not smaller.
Regardless, I cannot imagine that Rogers would win by any more than 5 points under the best case of circumstances.
Just this week some information came to light on Rogers leadership PAC being funding by an individual who owns a chemical company that produces Compound 1080, a dangerous poison. There is legislation pending in Congress that would ban Compound 1080 and hence part of the controversy.
We cannot give up on this race. We just need to help Segall hit Rogers harder
Segall hasn’t been on broadcast OR cable yet. His name ID is probably 15%. To be down 20 at this point is fantastic.
Also, you should ask what the african american vote looks like in the poll. Segall will get at least 90% of that vote. I bet that’s not how it polls though…
SEGALL WILL MAKE THIS RACE INTERESTING. HE IS A REAL BRIGHT SPOT IN THE FUTURE OF ALABAMA POLITICS