Public Policy Polling (8/20-22, likely voters, 7/17-20 in parens):
Mark Warner (D): 55 (57)
Jim Gilmore (R): 32 (32)
(MoE: ±3.0%)
Nothing to see here, folks.
Bonus finding: Obama leads McCain by 47-45. PPP’s Tom Jensen looks at the numbers and lays out Obama’s path to victory in Virginia:
If blacks make up 20% of the electorate in the state as they make up 20% of the population, and Obama gets 90% of their votes he has 18%.
Assuming that another 5% of the electorate is other nonwhite voters, such as Asians and Hispanics, who tend to vote Democratic. If he gets 60% of those votes it’s another 3%, pushing him up to 21%.
That leaves the white population at 75%, and Obama needing another 29% of the vote to get to 50%. If he gets 39% support from white voters he’s there.
Obama is currently at 36% among white voters — three points short of Jensen’s magic threshold, with 12% undecided. Will he be able to bring it home?
If Obama performed the same way amongst whites already decided then he would get an 4.32 boost to Virgina’s total vote from whites. So Obama only has to get 25% of the remaining white undecideds to win. However how is Obama performing amongst blacks and other nonwhites? In order for this magic number to work the others have to fit as well. Obama in the PPP poll got only 89% of Blacks compared to 11% for McCain and 54% of other non white compared to McCain’s 36%. So in reality Obama would need to get more of the white vote because he is currenlty not getting 90% of Blacks and 60% of other non whites.
But the weird thing is that PPP cross tables are fucked up
Obama gets 89% of Blacks to McCain’s 11% but 1% is undecided, that equals 101%…So what the fuck?
The whole crosstables part is fucked up, on white, non whites blacks, and age. This poll is losing its creditability fast…
with Warner’s help.
He’s got like 30 offices open so far. He’s got a huge field game, is investing tons of money on paid media and is campaigning hard there.
I think Obama will win Virgina.
He does not need a majority to win. He needs 47-48%. Barr, Nadar, etc will get around 3-6%.