Rasmussen (8/21, likely voters including leaners, 7/30 in parens):
Rick Noriega (D): 38 (39)
Big John Cornyn (R-inc.): 52 (50)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
The monthly installment from Rasmussen on the Texas Senate race shows little change, with Cornyn edging up slightly. Without leaners pushed, Cornyn leads 48-37 (again, barely changed from 47-37 on July 30).
Noriega is suffering from a big financial disadvantage against Cornyn. The DSCC might be able to tighten things up with a big investment… but with Dem odds heating up in races in North Carolina, Georgia, even Oklahoma, this one may be slipping further down their target list.
even remotely a wise thing for the DSCC to do?
I’m not willing to give up hope here yet. As a Texan, I can testify that there seems to be little campaigning so far. I’ve yet to see a Cornyn or Norriega ad, and very little mention of the race in newspaper or local TV. People simply haven’t begun paying attention to this race. As the challenger, that’s probably not a good thing for Norriega, who is still largely unknown, but at least it gives me reason to believe that the polling numbers are not written in stone.
To what extent must media buys and other DSCC support be committed to ahead of time? As it stands, I agree that many other races are better investments for the DSCC. But, I would hate to write this one off and not be prepared to invest in it if it tightens up.