The Final Oregon Ballot: Game On!

Yesterday was the deadline for submitting minor party candidates and replacing withdrawn major party candidates for the Oregon ballot this fall.  Below you will find my review of the races from the statewide elections to ballot measures and all the way down to state legislative races.  Take a break from convention coverage and read on!

Cross-Posted from Loaded Orygun: http://www.loadedorygun.net/sh…

Data Sources:

The Most Recent Voter Registration Data is at: http://www.sos.state.or.us/elections/votreg/jul08.pdf

Candidate information comes from ORESTAR: https://secure.sos.state.or.us/eim/jsp/CEMainPage.jsp?CONTENT_PAGE=cf/CFSearchPage.jsp

The Statewide Layout:

Total Registered Voters: About 2.05 Million.

Democrats: 42% (+210k vs. Republicans)

Republicans: 33%.

Nonpartisan/Others: 25%.

Key:

Size of Districts:

State House: Aprox. 55k.

State Senate: Aprox. 110k.

The incumbent is always listed first, or failing that, the incumbent party.  All minor parties are listed after the two major parties.

Party Key:

D=Democratic

R=Republican

G=Pacific Green

C=Constitution

L=Libertarian

I=Independent Party (This IS a political party, NOT those running as independents).

Other Notes:

There is currently a lawsuit pending to require the SOS to list if candidates have been nominated by multiple parties.  For example, Jeff Merkley would appear as (D,I) since he has been nominated by both the Dems and the Independent Party.  I list any cross-nominations as they are posted in ORESTAR.

Ratings:

Tossup-Margin less than 3%.

Lean-3-10% margin.

Likely-11-20% margin.

Safe-More than 20% margin.

Inc=Incumbent, Int=Interim Incumbent (Someone appointed to fill a seat until the next election due typically to resignation of the previous holder.  State law allows the party which held the seat to essentially appoint the replacement.  For example, when my State Senator resigned to take a job as the leader of a moderate Business Lobbying group, as a Precinct Committee Person I was entitled to vote for his replacement, which was then ratified by the County Commission).

Statewide Races:

US President

Candidates: Sen. John McCain (R) vs. Sen. Barack Obama (D), Ralph Nader (P), Cynthia McKinney (G), Bob Barr (L) and Chuck Baldwin (C).

Summary: The fact that McCain isn’t even trying to contest Oregon says a lot.  It would be a reach for him at best.  Obama, on the other hand, sent a bunch of the Obama fellows here a few weeks ago and is ramping up for the fall.  I really don’t think Nader, who snuck on the Oregon ballot through the back door, will have much impact.

Rating: Leans to Likely Obama.

US Senate

Candidates: Sen. Gordon Smith (R-inc) vs. Speaker of the OR House Jeff Merkley (D/I) and David Brownlow (C).

Summary: Smith is at best slightly ahead but is clearly struggling.  Forced already to blow A LOT of cash on what I refer to as “Furnituregate”, I don’t know if he made that much of an impact.  Merkley is running about the best campaign I’ve ever seen anyone run in this state.

Rating: Tossup.

Secretary of State

Candidates: State Senate Majority Leader Kate Brown (D) vs. Eugene TV Reporter Rick Dancer (R) and Seth Allan Wooley (G).

Summary: Kate Brown is going to absolutely kick the crap out of Dancer.  Dancer isn’t even that good of a candidate.  On an early appearance on Lars Larson’s talk radio program (he’s a well known conservative for those who don’t know), he seemed unaware of much of what the SOS actually does.

Rating: Likely to Safe Brown.

Attorney General

John Kroger (D) faces only minor party candidates and should cruise.

State Treasurer

Candidates: State Senator Ben Westlund (D/I) vs. former Kulongoski staffer Allan Alley (R) and Michael Marsh (C)

Summary: It is always so fan to see the Republicans go after Westlund, who used to be one of them until he saw the light.  Ben has the support of those on both sides of the aisle and should cruise to an easy victory here.  Not to mention Alley’s own problems as well…

Rating: Likely to Safe Westlund.

Labor Commissioner (Technically a nonpartisan race, 2 year vacancy filling election)

Candidates: Former State Senator Brad Avakian (D-inc.) vs. Founder, Instructor/Provider of a physical and mental fitness program Pavel Goberman (D) and Losing CD1 Candidate Mark Welzycko (D).

Summary: Avakian should have little trouble, given his status as a well known figure in state politics.

Rating: Safe Avakian.

Ballot Measures:

Measure Type:

C-Constitutional.

S-Statutory.

Legislative Referrals:

Measure 54 (C):

Summary: This corrects a bizarre flaw in the state constitution that prohibits citizens under 21 from voting in school board elections (a provision which is, of course, not in effect but should be removed anyways).

Known Opposition: None.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 55 (C):

Summary: Minor fixes to the state’s redistricting process.

Known Opposition: None.

Outlook: Safe Yes.

Measure 56 (S):

Summary: Partially repeals the Double Majority law requiring that 50% of registered voters cast ballots in an election for a bond measure to pass for May and November votes.

Known Opposition: Taxpayer Association of Oregon (Far Right), Bill Sizemore (Sponsor of all things extremely libertarian).

Outlook: Likely Yes, the legislature’s approval should allow this one to win pretty easily.  The game is clearly on over this measure but I doubt it’ll have trouble.

Measure 57 (S):

Summary: Proposes an alternative to Kevin Mannix’s (R-Of Course) property crime sentence minimum initiative.  Focuses state policy on treatment rather than prison for low level drug and property crimes.

Known Opposition: Kevin Mannix and his crew.

Outlook: Leans Yes, my guess is that with both on the ballot, Mannix’s extreme measure will fail when compared to this one.

Citizen Constitutional and Statutory Measures:

Measure 58 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore.

Summary: This measure would require English immersion rather than ESL for children for whom English is not their primary language.

Known Opposition: I would think a lot of progressive groups will mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I think the racist anti-immigrant folks will discover that they have limited political power after this one fails.  However, it is impossible to know exactly how this will turn out because this is the first immigration measure to make the ballot here.

Measure 59 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This is at least the third time that Sizemore and his gang have proposed this measure, which makes federal income taxes fully deductible on state returns.  This measure largely benefits high wage earners and would blow a huge hole in the state’s budget.

Known Opposition: A leading coalition of progressive groups will once again mobilize against this one.

Outlook: Likely No, the good news is that although Sizemore can qualify measures, he can’t pass them.  This proposal has failed by increasingly wider margins every time it’s been proposed.

Measure 60 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: This would require “merit-pay” for teachers in public schools.

Known Opposition: The Oregon Education Association will doubtless go all out against this measure.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, in 2000 a similar measure was rejected with 65% of the vote.  Given the more favorable political climate for education since then, this one will likely fail.

Measure 61 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix

Summary: This is Kevin Mannix’s draconian sentencing measure for property and low-level drug crimes.

Known Opposition: Most of the Legislature for one (See Measure 57) as well as most of the moderate and progressive groups in the state.

Outlook: Leans No, with the competing measure by the legislature, this one may go down, which is good because without the legislative measure it would likely pass.

Measure 62 (C):

Chief Sponsor: Kevin Mannix.

Summary: Dedicates 15% of Oregon Lottery proceeds to crime fighting/prevention efforts.

Known Opposition: The current groups that receive lottery funds, schools and parks, have opposed this.

Outlook: Tossup, IMHO a bad idea but measures like this have fared pretty well in the past.

Measure 63 (S):

Chief Sponsor; Bill Sizemore

Summary: This measure would allow minor building changes without a permit.

Known Opposition: None but anything Sizemore proposes won’t stay without opposition for long.

Outlook: Leans to Likely No, I don’t get this one but Sizemore’s name on the measure should be good enough to kill it.

Measure 64 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Bill Sizemore

Summary: Sizemore brings back an old and twice-failed idea to ban public-employee unions from using dues for political purposes.

Known Opposition: The progressive movement in this state will mobilize to kill this one.

Outlook: Likely No, Sizemore=without power, Public Employee Unions=Powerful, enough said.  

Measure 65 (S):

Chief Sponsor: Former SOS Phil Keisling (D)

Summary: Creates a Top-Two Open Primary in which all parties run their candidates on the same ballot and the top two, regardless of party affiliation, advance to the general election.

Known Opposition: Both the Oregon D’s and R’s oppose this strongly.

Outlook: Leans No, the state parties will spend a lot of $ to kill it, so I’ll list it as leans no for now.  Also the Oregonian is endorsing it, which typically means it’ll lose (the Oregonian has a history of endorsing losing candidates/propositions).

Congressional Races:

District 1: Wu (D-inc) will cruise.

District 2: Walden (R-inc) will have little trouble.  If the margin is under 10% that’s a victory for the Ds.

District 3: Blumenauer (D-inc) is well-loved in this district and for good reason.

District 4: DeFazio (D-inc) is unopposed.

District 5

Candidates: State Senator Kurt Schrader (D) vs. Businessman and 2006 R Nominee Mike Erickson (R).

Registration Info: 165k Ds, 144k Rs, 88k NP/Others.

Summary: Time was this was considered one of the most contentious house races in the country.  Then three things happened.  First, the Obama registration boost changed this district from one with a very slight D edge to a somewhat substantial one.  Second, Kevin Mannix, who lost the R primary to Erickson, accused Erickson, who had claimed he was pro-life, of paying for a former girlfriend’s abortion.  This assertion was proven to be at least somewhat true and the resulting turmoil, along with some other recent discoveries has knocked Erickson well behind the pace. Then, to add to Erickson’s pain came the discovery that he had made a trip to Cuba that appears to be nothing more than a glorified vacation.  If this were Florida he’d be done but it’s not and he can self-finance enough to make this competitive, meaning I’ll leave it in the “Lean” category for now.

Rating: Leans Schrader.  

Oregon Legislature:

Oregon Senate

Current Composition: 18D, 11R, 1 I.

Projected Composition: 18D, 12R (1 I to D and one D to R).

Ratings changes since last update:

Dist 9 and 12 from Likely/Lean R to Lean R.

Dist. 14 to noncompetitive because this is my district and I have yet to see any campaign by the Repub.

Safe Races:

1 (Roseburg)-Kruse (R).

2 (Central Point)-Atkinston (R).

5 (Lincoln City)-Verger (D).

14 (West Slope/Beaverton)-Hass (D).

18 (Tigard/SW Portland)-Burdick (D).

21 (SE Portland)-Rosenbaum (D).

22 (Portland)-Carter (D).

23 (NE Portland)-Dingfelder (D), this is technically a net pickup of 1, as Avel Gordly is an I.

25 (Gresham)-Monnes Anderson (D).

28 (Klamath Falls)-Whitsett (R).

29 (Pendleton)-Nelson (R).

30 (Ontario)-Ferriolli (R).

The following districts are competitive, or at least potentially competitive.

9 (Stayton)

Candidates: Fred Girod (R-int) vs. Bob McDonald (D).

Registration: R+4k.

Summary: The fact that this race is even competitive ought to really scare the Rs.  Girod still has the edge though.

Outlook: Leans Girod.

12 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Brian Boquist (R) vs. Kevin Nortness (D).

Registration: R+2.5k

Summary: The Rs had to scramble to get Boquist to run for this fairly safe seat.  This district is certainly changing but I don’t know if it is changing fast enough or if Nortness is a good enough candidate to replace the well-known Boquist.

Outlook: Leans Boquist.

27 (Bend)

Candidates: Marien Lundgren (D) vs. Chris Telfer (R).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: This is Ben Westlund’s seat and it would be a huge accomplishment to hold it (he won it twice running as a Republican).  That being said, I think its far more possible that a hold could occur now given the blue trend of Deschutes County, the center of this district.

Outlook: Leans Telfer.

Oregon House:

Current Composition: 31 D, 29 R.

Projected Composition: 32 D, 20 R, 8 Tossups (all Rs) and it could be a lot worse for the Rs.

Ratings Changes since last update:

District 29 (Riley) moved to noncompetitive due to disqualification of his Republican opponent on the grounds he did not actually live in the district.

District 35 (Galizio) moved to noncompetitive because his Republican opponent has turned out to be a complete loser.

District 38 (Garrett) moved to noncompetitive because although Steve Griffith is a personal friend of mine and in a normal year might have a shot in this blue district running as a moderate to liberal R, the registration disadvantage he faces is simply too big for him to overcome.

District 51 (Flores) moved from Lean R to tossup because of her Democratic opponent’s fundraising advantage…

The following seats are rated either safe or likely:

1 (Gold Beach)-Krieger (R).

2 (Myrtle Creek)-Freeman (R).

3 (Grants Pass)-Maurer (R).

4 (Central Point)-Richardson (R).

5 (Ashland)-Buckley (D).

8 (Eugene)-Holvey (D).

10 (Newport)-Cowan (D)-She won this seat by all of 750 votes two years ago and the Rs couldn’t find an opponent for her.

11 (Eugene)-Barnhart (D).

12 (Springfield)-Beyer (D).

13 (Eugene)-Nathanson (D).

14 (Eugene)-Edwards (D).

16 (Corvallis)-Gelser (D).

21 (Salem)-Clem (D).

25 (Keizer)-Thatcher (R).

27 (West Slope, my district!)-Read (D).

28 (Beaverton)-Barker (D).

29 (Hillsboro)-Riley (D).

31 (Clatskanie)-Witt (D).

32 (Cannon Beach)-Boone (D).

33 (Portland)-Greenlick (D).

34 (Beaverton)-Harker (D).

35 (Tigard)-Galizio (D).

36 (Portland)-Nolan (D).

38 (Lake Oswego)-Garrett (D).

40 (Oregon City)-Hunt (D).

41 (Milwaukie)-Tomei (D).

42 (Portland)-Koppel-Bailey (D).

43 (Portland)-Shields (D).

44 (Portland)-Kotek (D).

45 (Portland)-Dembrow (D).

46 (Portland)-Cannon (D).

47 (Portland)-J. Smith (D).

48 (Happy Valley)-Schaufler (D).

53 (Sunriver)-Whisnant (R).

55 (Medford)-Gilliam (R).

56 (Klamath Falls)-Garrard (R).

57 (Heppner)-G. Smith (R).

58 (Pendleton)-Jenson (R).

60 (Ontario)-Benz (R).

The following seats are competitive:

6 (Medford)

Candidates: Sal Esquivel (R-inc.) vs. Lynn Howe (D).

Registration: R+3k

Summary: No one believed me two years ago when I said this seat would be competitive, and then Esquivel barely eked out a win.  My guess is that he won’t be caught napping this time, though.

Outlook: Leans Esquivel.

7 (Roseburg)

Candidates: Bruce Hanna (R-inc) vs. Donald Nordin (D).

Registration: R+1.4k

Summary: This would be my shocker of the year if an upset happened.  This district, which has been solidly red for decades, or so it seems, has seen a huge drop in the Republican registration edge.  Hanna is also not the greatest politician in the world to begin with but still has an edge here.  He also has a huge cash edge as the minority leader from the OR House.

Outlook: Leans Hanna.

9 (Coos Bay)

Candidates: Arnie Roblan (D-inc.) vs. Al Pearn (R).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: This 2006 rematch should not be any different than the last one.  Roblan has a good read on this district and should win his easiest battle yet.  

Outlook: Leans Roblan.

15 (Albany)

Candidates: Andy Olson (R-inc.) vs. Dick Olsen (D).

Registration: D and R even

Summary: This district was not on anyone’s list but mine two years ago as potentially competitive.  Now with an even registration mix, a chance for an upset is there.  Olson, a former State Policeman, has the edge at this point though.

Outlook: Leans Olson.

17 (Scio)

Candidates: Sherrie Sprenger (R-int.) vs. Dale Thackaberry (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Following a bloody and divisive R primary, Thackaberry has a real chance to pull an upset.  Add to that the fact that Sprenger has never won a general election here.  Still, this is definitely a district with an R tilt, so it’ll be an uphill battle.

Outlook: Leans Sprenger.

18 (Silverton)

Candidates: Vic Gilliam (R-int.) vs. Jim Gilbert (D/I).

Registration: R+2.2k

Summary: Jim Gilbert is back for another attempt at an upset here.  This is clearly his best chance yet but it won’t be easy.  If the Repubs lose this district, it will have been a big night.

Outlook: Leans Gilliam.

19 (Salem)

Candidates: Kevin Cameron (R-inc.) vs. Hanten (HD) Day (D).

Registration: R+ less than 1k

Summary: This is a district that should be more competitive than it has in the past.  With a lack of need to defend their own seats, this may become a democratic target, making an upset possible.

Outlook: Leans Cameron.

20 (Independence/Monmouth)

Candidates: Vicki Berger (R-inc./I) vs. Richard Riggs (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: Berger is one of the last remaining liberal Republicans that Oregon used to develop like crazy.  She’s in for fight for her life this time due much more to both the state of the Republican party and the slight D registration edge though.

Outlook: Tossup.

22 (Woodburn)

Candidates: Betty Komp (D-inc.) vs. Tom Chereck (R).

Registration: D+2k.

Summary: I have to put this as competitive because its Woodburn.  However, Komp has really done a great job in this district and should win pretty easily.  Interestingly, this district has the lowest number of registered voters in the state, likely due to the large number of undocumented workers living here.

Outlook: Leans Komp.

23 (Dallas)

Candidates: Jim Thompson (R) vs. Jason Brown (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: This open seat battle could be one for the books.  That being said, I have to give the edge to Thompson for now because it is an R-leaning district.

Outlook: Leans Thompson.

24 (McMinnville)

Candidates: Jim Wiedner (R) vs. Bernt Hansen (D).

Registration: D and R even.

Summary: This was the seat that Kossack Sal Peralta almost won in 2006.  If Hansen can run a good campaign, a win is definitely possible here.  Call it a tossup.

Outlook: Tossup.

26 (Wilsonville)

Candidates: Matt Wingard (R-int.) vs. Jessica Adamson (D).

Registration: R+2k

Summary: Sometimes the opportunities just fall into your lap.  In this case, it turns out that Wingard has been arrested for hitting his children before.  The Repubs were panicked enough that incumbent Jerry Krummel resigned so that Wingard could go in as the “incumbent”.  This is still Wilsonville though, so it’s an R lean for now.

Outlook: Leans Wingard.

30 (Hillsboro)

Candidates: David Edwards (D-inc.) vs. Andy Duyck (R).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: The Republicans are all excited that Duyck is going to be their candidate here.  The well-known Washington County Commissioner is a solid candidate but this is not the Hillsboro that existed ten or even five years ago.  It has taken a solid blue turn and add to that the fact that Edwards survived some of the most vicious smears of any candidate in 2006 and still won to give him a slight edge.

Outlook: Leans Edwards.

37 (West Linn)

Candidates: Scott Bruun (R-inc.) vs. Michele Eberle (D).

Registration: D+ less than 1k.

Summary: Bruun is a well-known figure in this district; his family has run a construction business for over 100 years in the area.  Still, this year he will have to fight hard to keep this swing district, which now has a very slight D edge.

Outlook: Tossup.

39 (Canby)

Candidates: Bill Kennemer (R) vs. Tony Forsberg (D).

Registration: D+ 1k

Summary: Kossack Mike Caudle almost pulled off a major upset here in 2006 against the then R-leader Wayne Scott. As an open seat race, this one is too close to call.  Both candidates are well known and respected in the community.

Outlook: Tossup.

49 (Gresham)

Candidates: John Nelsen (R) vs. Nick Kahl (D).

Registration: D+4.5k

Summary: Two years ago about the only major disappointment I had was Minnis winning this district.  Republicans think Kahl is a lightweight because he’s young and relatively inexperienced.  They’re wrong, he’s a great candidate, especially with the youth voter empowerment machine known as the Oregon Bus Project (http://busproject.org/) on his side.  With Mannix out of the picture, this should be a D pickup, especially with the substantial D edge in this district.

Outlook: Leans Kahl.

50 (Fairview)

Candidates: John Lim (R-inc.) vs. Greg Matthews (D).

Registration: D+3k

Summary: How Lim keeps winning here is a mystery.  He should be in for the fight of his life this year with this district clearly trending blue.

Outlook: Tossup.

51 (Clackamas)

Candidates: Linda Flores (R-inc.) vs. Brent Barton (D).

Registration: D+1k

Summary: How I would love to get rid of the racist Flores.  Barton has as good a chance as anyone and has huge financial backing.  I’m moving this race to tossup for that reason alone.

Outlook: Tossup.

52 (Corbett)

Candidates: Matt Lindland (R) vs. Suzanne VanOrman (D).

Registration: D+2k

Summary: In case you’re wondering, yes Matt Lindland is indeed otherwise known as UFC fighter Matt “The Law” Lindland.  This is a dead tossup district this year and should be fun to watch.

Outlook: Tossup.

54 (Bend)

Candidates: Chuck Burley (R-inc.) vs. Judy Stiegler (D).

Registration: D+1.5k

Summary: This district has been trending blue over the past several years.  This could well be the year Stiegler, who barely lost to Burley in an open seat race here four years ago, breaks through and wins it.

Outlook: Tossup.

59 (The Dalles)

Candidates: John Huffman (R-int.) vs. Mike Ahern (D).

Registration: R+1k

Summary: This was the district that shocked everyone in 2006 as it was almost a D pickup.  However, I think Huffman will not be caught unaware as a result, though an upset is possible.

Outlook: Leans Huffman.

Well that’s it, let me know what you think.