Greg Smith and Associates (8/18-22, likely voters):
Larry LaRocco (D): 29
Jim Risch (R): 41
Rex Rammell (I): 3
(MoE: ±4.0%)
This pretty much confirms Research 2000‘s poll of this race for the Great Orange Satan, which pegged the race at 42-32, with Republican-turned-Independent Rammell picking up five points. At this point, the disgruntled rancher doesn’t appear to be much of a factor.
It seems telling that Risch can’t soar much above 40% in a state that Bush won twice with 67% and 69%, respectively. However, it’s not going to be incredibly difficult for him to push what are undoubtedly conservative-leaning undecideds onto his side of the fence come election day.
Still, Risch’s continued mediocrity makes this race worth keeping an eye on.
LaRocco needs to make some movement. The majority of undecideds are probably going to veer towards Risch to put him at least around 50%. Rammell isn’t making enough waves to be effective or reliable… If the equation of the race doesn’t fundamentally change, it’s going to slowly veer off the map.
The last poll had 17% undecided. This one has 27% undecided. It seems voters prefer neither candidate at this point.
What would it take to move the undecideds more to LaRocco’s column?
Politics1 says they are.