The light at the end of the tunnel is upon us: the last batch of primaries occurs during the first few weeks of September. While there’s only one last good shot at bouncing an incumbent (LA-02), there is still a wide variety of tasty races in this smorgasbord.
September 2
AZ-01: As Rick Renzi looks forward to his golden years in prison retirement, there are battles on each side of the aisle to replace him. On the Democratic side, the frontrunner is former state representative Ann Kirkpatrick. There haven’t been any polls, but Kirkpatrick has thoroughly dominated the fundraising chase. Two of her opponents can’t be ruled out, though, especially given their connections to the Native American community (Natives make up nearly one-quarter of this district which encompasses much of rural Arizona, by far the most of any congressional district): environmental attorney Howard Shanker, who has often represented the tribes in court, and former TV reporter Mary Kim Titla, who as an Apache would be the first-ever Native American woman in Congress.
On the Republican side, ultra-conservative mining industry lobbyist Sydney Hay somehow got stuck carrying the party’s flag after more prominent (and electable) recruits demurred. Hay’s fundraising has been sub-par, giving attorney/ex-State Dept. official Sandra Livingstone an opening to surprise her. The odds still favor Hay… which may favor the Dems this November, given Hay’s unlikeability, the narrow lean of the R+2 district, and the stench left behind by Renzi.
AZ-05: Freshman Democratic Rep. Harry Mitchell might have been endangered in this suburban R+4 district in a less Dem-friendly year, having drawn a slew of credible challengers in the Republican primary. Former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert seems to have the best shot, based on fundraising and having the largest constitutency. However, ex-city councilor Susan Bitter Smith, ex-state senator Laura Knaperek, ex-state representative Mark Anderson, and lobbyist Jim Ogsbury are all in this thing, and without a runoff, one of the lesser candidates could easily sneak by, if they have a more cohesive bloc.
September 6 (?)
LA-02: Here’s the big opportunity for Democrats to clean house, by ridding themselves of their most corrupt member, Bill Jefferson. In a purely one-on-one race, Jefferson might be facing some long odds (although maybe not, given Louisiana residents’ tendency to be a little more forgiving of their pols’ indiscretions than in most places). Unfortunately, Jefferson faces an extremely crowded field, with the anti-Jefferson vote split among six other candidates (some of whom might actually be pro-Jefferson Trojan horses?): state representative Cedric Richmond, Jefferson Parish councilor Byron Lee, New Orleans city councilor James Carter, former New Orleans city councilor Troy Carter, Ray Nagin aide Kenya Smith, and former TV anchor Helena Moreno. Jefferson also has the edge in very cold, very hard cash on hand, although his pre-primary numbers showed slackening fundraising.
The good news is, what with a corrupt incumbent and a raft of challengers, this is almost certainly going to a runoff (which will be held October 4). I have absolutely no idea who will be opposing Jefferson in the runoff… and remember that the runoff didn’t work so well in 2006, when then-state representative Karen Carter Peterson lost to Jefferson despite the corruption allegations having surfaced (prior to his indictment, however). The runoff is the de facto general in this D+28 district.
LA-04: There’s a three-way fight among the top-tier Republicans in this battle to replace the retiring GOP Rep. Jim McCrery in this Shreveport-based R+7 district. The fundraising advantage seems to go to former Bossier Chamber of Commerce president Jeff Thompson and to self-funding trucking company executive Chris Gorman. However, several internal polls give a sizable edge to physician John Fleming.
The good news (for us) is that each of these guys is a relative unknown, and going up in November against Paul Carmouche, who has been the district attorney in Caddo Parish (home of Shreveport) for literally decades, and who faces only token primary opposition. With the likelihood of none of the three GOPers hitting 50%, and the nastiness getting dragged out for another month till a runoff, Carmouche looks to be in the catbird’s seat.
September 9
DE-Gov: The main event in Delaware is the Democratic primary in the governor’s race, between Lt. Gov. John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell. (Either one is expected to coast in November, against retired judge Bill Lee.) Both seem like solid Dems; Carney is more associated with labor and party insiders, and Markell is considered more of a ‘fresh’ face, despite an endorsement from the DLC last year. This becomes more interesting when considering that the winner may be the one who appoints Joe Biden’s successor (although that could also be Ruth Ann Minner’s last act), and the gubernatorial loser may be the one who gets to be the next senator.
DE-AL: On paper, this should be a competitive race; at D+6, it’s the most Democratic-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (Mike Castle). Barring something weird happening, though, Castle will continue to occupy this seat for at least the next two years. This is worth mentioning mostly because this primary gets a lot of netroots focus; veterinarian and Kossack Jerry Northington is running, as well as ’06 independent candidate Karen Hartley-Nagle and accountant Mike Miller.
MN-Sen: Al Franken pretty much locked this nomination down long ago at the DFL convention, which is ordinarily the end game in Minnesota. However, attorney Priscilla Lord Faris is hanging around the margins, raising arguments about Franken’s electibility and otherwise trying to bleed him to death with paper cuts. Don’t look for Faris to come close to winning, but Franken’s numbers in the primary might help us gauge just how vulnerable he is to the whole ‘juicy porn’ line of attack in the general.
MN-01: There’s still a duel going on in this R+1 Rochester-based district for the right to get flattened by freshman Dem Tim Walz. State senator Dick Day seemed an early favorite for the GOP nomination, but Mayo Clinic physician Brian Davis has run an aggressive campaign well to the right of the affable Day, and with his sizable fundraising edge (much of which may be out of his own pocket) may shoot past Day. Either way, the nasty primary only serves to bolster Walz, who’s on the verge of securing this seat for good.
NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter was one of the biggest Democratic upsets in the 2006 cycle, and with mediocre polling numbers, a desire to hold the DCCC at arm’s length, and a potential rematch against the narrowly-defeated ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, she may be one of this cycle’s most endangered Dem incumbents. However, the good news is that Bradley has been stumbling around in his own primary, against former New Hampshire Health and Human Services Director John Stephen. Stephen has been hitting the more moderate Bradley hard from the right, and has drawn even with him in fundraising. Both lag Shea-Porter’s cash stash (for a woman who hates to raise money, she sure raises money). Even if Bradley makes it through the primary, his empty wallet and mud-spattered suit will complicate efforts to retake this D+0 seat.
NH-02: Of the two new New Hampshire representatives from 2006, conventional wisdom has always viewed Paul Hodes as the safer one. Talk radio host Jennifer Horn is the challenger who’s probably drawn the most attention from the rest of the right-wing punditsphere (gee, I wonder why?), and she leads the fundraising chase. State senator Bob Clegg and former congressional aide Grant Bosse are still in the mix. Between the seat’s D+3 lean and Hodes’ huge cash advantage, though, any of them are likely to be no more than a speed bump for Hodes (as seen by our recent upgrade of this race to Safe Dem).
NY-10: At D+41, in this mostly African-American seat in Brooklyn, the primary is the main event. Edolphus Towns, who has held this seat since 1982, survived a three-way challenge in 2006, giving him the whiff of vulnerability. (Indeed, he’s seen stiff primary fights in other years as well.) This year, he faces another spirited challenge, this time from writer and community organizer Kevin Powell (best known for playing the role of ‘angry black guy’ on the very first season of MTV’s The Real World back in 1992). Towns has survived higher-profile challenges before, but with his checkered past (voting for bankruptcy reform and CAFTA, snuggling up to black Republican J.C. Watts) and Powell’s celebrity-fueled run, this is one to watch.
NY-13: This race has been an SSP staple since May. Rather than give you a blow-by-blow recap, I’ll simply redirect anyone not familiar with this race to SSP’s Timeline of GOP Disasters, as this race seems to make up a large portion of that epic work. Starting with Vito Fossella’s retirement upon his admission of his affair and love child, the GOP has with each subsequent incident fallen deeper and deeper into a rabbit hole of embarrassing absurdity.
As it stands, there is still an ostensibly competitive primary on each side of the aisle in this D+1 seat. On the Dem side, city councilor Mike McMahon is poised to win over attorney Steve Harrison. (McMahon is considered more conservative than Harrison, and Harrison has the advantage of being the ’06 candidate, but McMahon has the gigantic advantage of being from Staten Island, unlike Brooklynite Harrison, which is key in this parochial SI-based district.) McMahon has a large cash edge and DCCC backing.
On the GOP side, after every credible candidate (and some incredible ones as well) passed on the race, we’re down to a primary between Manhattan resident Robert Straniere (always referred to as “ex-Assemblyman/hot dog restauranteur”) and Jamshad “Jim” Wyne, treasurer of the Staten Island GOP. Both Straniere and Wyne are widely detested, have no money, and to make matters worse (for them), are now bashing each other incessantly.
NY-21: This race is a little reminiscent of CO-02: a big slate of liberal Democrats vying to take over a safe Democratic (D+9) seat being vacated by long-timer Mike McNulty. There are at least four credible candidates here: ex-Assemblyman Paul Tonko, former Hillary Clinton aide Tracey Brooks, Albany County Legislator Phil Steck, and former congressional aide Darius Shahinfar. Steck received the endorsement of the Albany County Democratic Committee, but Tonko seems to have a big edge in name recognition, based on an internal poll giving him a sizable lead. Tonko has key labor endorsements such as the SEIU; Brooks has the NOW endorsement; Steck and Shahinfar are endorsers of the Responsible Plan. In other words, we have four pretty solid progressives; just pick the flavor you like.
NY-26: This R+3 open seat in the Buffalo suburbs, left vacant when Tom Reynolds decided to hit the eject button, looked to present one more easy pickup for the New York Dems. Charismatic Iraq War vet Jon Powers quickly moved to grab the endorsement of all the Democratic Party organizations in each county. However, there’s one huge obstacle between Powers and the nomination: crazy tycoon Jack Davis, who, with his single-minded focus on fair trade and illegal immigrants, was possibly the only person who could have wrested defeat from the jaws of victory against Reynolds in 2006 at the height of the Mark Foley scandal. Davis, if you’ll recall, was the vanquisher of the Millionaire’s Amendment, freeing him to spend willy-nilly to buy this race. He was last heard from worrying about how immigrants will lead to the Second Civil War.
Although Powers has been a strong fundraiser, Davis has still been outspending Powers lately, purely out of his own pocket, and pummeling Powers over the alleged inefficacy of Powers’ charitable efforts for Iraqi kids. Either outcome doesn’t look good: Davis buying the primary and being cannon fodder in the general against the well-funded and uncontroversial Republican businessman Chris Lee, or a wounded and depleted Powers staggering into the general. (There’s a third candidate, “environmental” lawyer Alice Kryzan, but it doesn’t seem she has enough of a base to sneak unnoticed past the other two.)
Thats Mary Kim Titla in AZ-01
http://www.marykimtitla.com/
From what I am reading on AZ-5 the GOP primary has devolved into a mud throwing contest between David Schweikert and Susan Bitter Smith. The thinking is that Jim Ogsbury may be able to come from behind to an upset win based on the bitterness between the feuding front-runners.
The only reason Russ Feingold won his US Senate Seat was a similar scenario where the two front runners annihilated each other allowing Russ to come out of nowhere to win the Democratic primary by remaining above the fray.
Ogsbury is running a similar strategy, will be interesting to see if he has similar results.
Any thoughts on the preferred foe for Harry Mitchell? I personally have no clue who Mitchell would prefer to run against given his druthers.
I would bet Biden resigns early and Minner appoints successor early to give edge in seniority in freshmen class.
This used to be very common practice, though usually after newbie elected in state with same-party governor. But, with the TO expected this year, such a move will give Del’s bew Senator a big edge over a lot of newbies. Whomever is appointed is nearly certain to win the special for unexpired anyway.
has dumped a few hundred thousand of his own dollars in too. That’s the only reason Thompson, endorsed by the establishment, probably won’t win in LA-04. They’re all unknowns, and while Thompson is the only one legitimately funded by individuals, the rest are self funding themselves and from both polls I’ve seen have put them selves way ahead. It’ll be a battle between Gorman and Fleming, and I feel Fleming will win our very very late runoff, with no money, and not much more to self-fund with, while the very well known Carmouche, a popular conservative law and order Democrat who does well among the white vote in Bossier and Caddo Parishes, which contain probalby more than sixty percent of the districts population, and you have a race that Carmouche easily wins. Also take into account heavily Democratic oasises in the rural portions of the district, including a county that did not even give Jindall a plurality of the vote in 2007, and the Louisiana portion of Texarkana, and you have something that’s Carmouche’s to lose.