Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/Democracy Corps (8/20-26, likely voters):
Kay Hagan (D): 50
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±3.4%)
Damn, son. Those are some great numbers for Kay Hagan, and this is the second poll in a row to show her with a lead over Liddy Dole. In fact, the Pollster.com graph is looking downright exciting as of late.
Now, Hagan and the DSCC have landed several weeks worth of unanswered hits on Dole, and the NRSC has only started to fire back this week. The Democratic attacks on Dole (e.g. on her effectiveness, her weak relationship with her state, and her lockstep record with George Bush) have been hitting at all the right targets. I really like this trend, and am hoping that the post-Labor Day polls confirm what we’re seeing here.
Bonus findings: The same poll also finds McCain leading Obama by 47-44, and McCrory and Perdue tied at 46-46 in the gubernatorial race.
North Carolina doesn’t usually like incumbent senators – Jesse Helms was the sole exception. No other senator has won re-election from NC since 1968!
One interesting thing is that when the people polled were asked whom they voted for in 2004, they said Bush by a 13 point margin, right in line with the actual results. Yet this group favors Hagen and is very closely divided between McCain and Obama. So very typical NC voters are clearly moving strongly towards the Blue team.
I saw it last night during the 11 PM local news. Some kind of BS about Kay getting a gold medal at being a tax & spend liberal.
The polls are definitely encouraging, but I have ended up disappointed by so many NC senate races, I will not get excited. This thing is gonna be tight, and it is going right down to the wire.
1. Virginia
2. Alaska
3. New Mexico
4. New Hampshire
5. Colorado
7. Minnesota
8. Oregon
9. Mississippi
And two of the following:
* Maine
* Kentucky
* Texas
* Georgia
* Oklahoma
* Idaho
An eleven seat gain would be a good cycle, right?
Dig down into the poll details, and the Perdue-McCrory race for NC governor is tied. Not a good sign.
It was above 50% just two months ago but his support among BOTH Ds and Indies is about half now what it was then…