NV-02, NV-03: Paint That Mother Blue

First, some numbers to chew on from 2006:

Jill Derby (D): 104,593

Dean Heller (R): 117,168

Tessa Hafen (D): 98,261

Jon Porter (R): 102,232

Now, some more numbers to chew on. Let’s compare the voter registration numbers from Nevada in November 2006 and August 2008. In the chart below, let’s tally the Democratic and Republican registration advantages in all three of Nevada’s congressional districts from both time periods, with blue indicating a Democratic registration advantage and red indicating a GOP advantage. Here’s what we get:































District Nov. 2006 Aug. 2008 Change
NV-01 40,671 65,679 25,008
NV-02 47,718 29,405 18,313
NV-03 2,882 25,445 22,563
Total 4,165 61,719 65,884

Statewide, Democrats have turned a voter registration deficit of 4,000 into an advantage of 62,000 in less than two years. The biggest shift is in Clark County, where Democratic Rep. Shelley Berkley’s 1st District is getting even bluer, and where the ground is shifting rapidly under GOP Rep. Jon Porter’s feet in the 3rd District. Porter is going to have his work cut out for him against Democrat Dina Titus this fall.

It’s also not hard to see why Jill Derby was tempted to make another run in the 2nd District: the reduction of the GOP’s voter registration advantage is bigger than her losing margin in 2006. However, with the increased turnout of a presidential year, she’s going to have a heck of a challenge persuading the big chunk of independent voters that she’ll need to close the gap.

Overall, these are very encouraging signs for Democrats up and down the ballot this fall.

20 thoughts on “NV-02, NV-03: Paint That Mother Blue”

  1. If you assume turnout will be doubled in a presidential year, then looks like Dina Titus is on her way to winning, because double 2006’s margin is still only about 6000 votes.  But Derby’s gonna have to work harder because double her margin is 26000 votes and she’s only got 18000 new voters to work with.

  2. D.on’t

    A.ssume

    R.eader

    K.nows

    That timeless advice from my old editor applies in triplicate when you garble your test.

    The results from ’06 are not labelled by district. Y.O.Y.O.

    Then the paragraph beginning “Statewide” says Porter/Titus is the 2nd District.

    Finally the paragraph beginning “It’s also not hard to see” says Jill Derby is running again “in the 2nd District.”

    Damn. The second district sure is crowded with candidates!

    Sorry. Too early in the day for me to sort it all out.

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