Public Opinion Strategies for Melissa Hart (8/17-18, likely voters):
Jason Altmire (D-inc): 49
MelissaJoanHart (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Hart held this district for three terms before the socially conservative, economically moderate Altmire took the shine out of her rising star in 2006. Despite the close margin, it’s hard for me to imagine the voters of this R+2.6 district deciding that they made a mistake in firing her, especially with Hart getting badly beaten in the money race so far.
Bonus finding: The poll shows McCain smacking Obama by a 52-39 margin in this district. Bush beat Kerry by 54-45 here in 2004.
SSP rates this race as Lean Democratic.
I see that this is an internal poll from the Hart campaign. Hart has had a bad history with inflated numbers in her internal polls. One poll in 2006 had her up by 12 and she ended up losing by 2.
I do not think that the people of PA-04 are ready to go back to Hart.
If the Hart internal polls are showing Altmire up by 5 when they were done during the “McCaain bounce” I think it is reasonable to believe that Altmire is actually much further ahead.