GOP fratricide over Iraq (with Poll)

the conduct of the Civil War in Iraq may assist the Democrats in unforseen ways in 2008.

The “Surrender Caucus” of GOP incumbents faces right wing primary opposition as Right wing activist Hugh Hewitt is launching a group dedicated to generating primary challenges over the roll call vote on the Iraq war resolution. 

If Hewitt’s group proves effective they could prove to be a good group for the Democrats to shadow hoping to pick off wounded GOP incumbents in 2008.

The potential target include:

-DEL at large Mike Castle: It would be an ominous development for Castle if a serious primary foe were to emerge. The DCCC has a great big bull’s eye on Castle already and he risks his seat if he panders too far to the political right.  Hewitt could be the Democrats Secret Santa in 2008 in Delaware.
-FL8 Rick Keller: Keller is already on the Democrats hit list after an anemic 52.8 – 45.7 re-election victory in 2006.
-IL10 Mike Kirk: Kirk is already vulnerable and a withering Democratic attack in 2008 is anticipated.  Hard to see how a primary challenge from the right boosts Kirk’s electabilty.
-MD1 Wayne Gilcrest: Easily re-elected in 2006.  Hard to see a credible primary foe making life very difficult for Gilcrest’s anticipated re-election in 2008.
-MD6 Roscoe Bartlett: Bartlett won with less than 60% of the vote in 2006.  If a serious GOP primary opponent emerges it behooves the Democrats to have a quality candidate in MD6 in 2008.
-MI6 Fred Upton: a McCain backer probably has little to fear politically from a primary challenge.  Given that the Dems need to compensate for their 2006 neglect of Michigan taking a shot at Upton forces the GOP to play defense on their turf and perhaps a contested primary might generate defectors to team blue.
-MN3 Jim Ramstead: Re-elected with almost 65% of the vote in 2008.  With Jack Coleman already a primary Dem target in 2008 it would help to build strength up and down the ticket.  If Ramstead faces a challenge from the right more effort should be made to secure a Democratic opponent in 2008.
-NY25 James Walsh: he is already near the top of the Democrats 2008 hit list and if he needs to fend of a serious primary opponent so much the better.
-NC3 Walter Jones: hard to see a serious primary contest here given Jones was one of the first GOP congressional critics of the war and he romped to re-election with a shade under 69% of the vote.  They didn’t care he was anti-Iraq in 2006, why would they in 2008?
-NC6 Howard Coble: the fact 2 NC Republicans are even on this list shows the times they are a changin in NC as a Democrat resurgence gains momentum.  If Coble is going to face a serious primary challenger we should make certain the Democrats have a better nominee than in 2006 when Coble won re-election with nearly 71% of the vote.
-OH14 Stephen LaTourette: the hits keep coming from the right as LaTourette replaced his wife with a PYT and that did not sit well with many values voters in the district.  A serious primary might well be in the works here. They could merge the values attack with the Iraq attack to question his very loyalty to Conservative values.  LaTourette was re-elected with 57.6% of the vote in 2006.
-PA3 Phil English: The Democrats are in the process of generating serious challenge here already.  If Phil English faces an attack from the right it plays into the Democrat’s hands.
TN2 John Duncan: Re-elected in 2006 with 78% of the vote.  Seems impervious to much mischief making from left or right.
-TX14 Ron Paul: it is hard to see him losing a primary challenge based on Iraq.  The district knows he is quirky and it has yet to cost him his seat.  Why would 2008 be any different?
-VA11 Tom Davis: Davis might retire  He might run for John Warner’s Senate seat.  So a Hewitt based primary insurgency seems problematic in 2008 as they may not have a target in VA11.

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