SurveyUSA (9/8-10, likely voters, 7/28-30):
Baron Hill (D-inc): 50 (49)
Mike Sodrel (R): 39 (42)
Eric Schansberg (L): 5 (4)
(MoE: ±4.1%)
Hill is still looking good in his fourth straight head-to-head against warmed-over Republican retread Mike Sodrel.
Blue Indiana offers some local color. Sodrel has been running an usually quiet and low-energy race, and is still struggling to scrape together some decent coin.
SSP currently rates this race as Lean Democratic.
Will it finally NOT flip this year?
It was one of our few seats I was worried about early in the cycle due to Hill having a track record of very close races as well as one loss. Guess the GOP convention bounce doesn’t extend to IN-09.
pull the 1.6 million it’s got reserved already.
Hill. Does. Not. Need. It.
Not that we’re completely out of the woods yet in the 9th, but it looks really good. After taking 3 red districts in 2006, and then having to deal with the circus that followed Julia Carson’s death, I never thought we’d be in this position, of not really having to viciously defend the 2nd and 8th. I think everone knew Ellsworth would be difficult to beat, but why the Repubs gave Joe Donnelly a free pass is beyond me (I mean, one of their top three candidates was a Nazi — like a real one!!).
With respect to the 9th, I really question whether Sodrel wants it all that badly. By this time in the previous three elections, he was aggressively hammering Baron Hill especially on social issues. Particularly the 2004 race was one of the ugliest political hatchet jobs I’ve ever seen. As long as the Republicans put up a funded and credible candidate, this district will always be a tough one to defend, but it looks good for this cycle!
Can’t help but to wonder how much the fact that Obama is running much better in Indiana than Kerry is helping Hill.