As we look toward the unsettled Senate race picture of 2008, one of the hot topics of discussion lately has been rampant will-they-or-won’t-they speculation surrounding the potential retirements of Republican Senators like Pete Domenici (NM), Thad Cochran (MS), and John Warner (VA). All three of these Senators have sent signals with varying degrees of certainty that they will indeed be running again in 2008. Cochran, for instance, has started to rev up his fundraising engines. But as we look at these three Republican geezers and others like them, keep in mind the familiar refrain from SSP hero Chuck D: Don’t Believe the Hype!
Senators can be annoyingly coy about seeking re-election, often issuing firm statements and strong signals that they’ll seek another term while postponing a formal retirement announcement. Let’s look at a few recent examples.
Halfway through his Senate term, Mark Dayton (D-MN) was firmly committed to his re-election prospects (at least publicly). He hired a new public relations firm and made plans to tour his home state more extensively to increase his visibility, while at the same time hiring top shelf talent to bolster his anemic fundraising (as of January, 2004, he had a scant $60,000 in his re-election coffers). A year later, he had already announced his retirement. While Dayton’s move was borne out of a desire to avoid a costly defeat (something that popular Senators Warner, Domenici, and Cochran probably don’t have to worry about), it does illustrate that plans do indeed change.
Take Republican Senator Fred Thompson of Tennessee, for instance. In 2001, he was heavily leaning towards retirement after he lost his chairmanship of the Governmental Affairs Committee when the Democrats took control of the Senate. However, on September 25 of that same year, he announced quite firmly that the gravity of 9/11 compelled him to seek another Senate term. It only took a few months before he reneged in March, claiming that he didn’t have “the heart” for another six years.
Or how about Ben Nighthorse Campbell (R-CO), who in June of 2003 was fundraising at a decent clip and making statements that he was indeed going to stay on for another Senate term? It was not until March of 2004 that he decided that another Senate term was not in the cards.
And how’s this for another example? Frank Lautenberg (D-NJ). After the 1998 midterms, he quickly promised that he would run for a fourth term. “I’ve said I’m going to run, and I intend to,” he told the New York Times that November. Three months later, in February 1999, he threw in the towel. (But as we all know, it’s funny how these plans go: Lautenberg was Torricelli’s emergency replacement in 2002, and is preparing another run for 2008.)
My point here is that I highly doubt that John Ensign and the NRSC will escape 2008 without dealing with at least one more retirement (Colorado Senator Wayne Allard has already jumped ship). With the 2008 and 2010 Senate race maps offering Republicans minimal obvious opportunities to reclaim the majority position, I suspect that we’ll see more retirements on their side of the aisle now that they’ve lost their swanky committee chairmanships and other trappings of power. They just might not be admitting it yet.
Can anyone think of similar examples of other Senators sending firm re-election signals, only to issue a surprise (or not so surprising) retirement notice?
UPDATE: In the comments over at the Dailykos discussion of this diary, kywddavid takes a look at some historical numbers:
From 1920 through 2006 (the years covered by Wikipedia for this), 215 Senators retired in 44 cycles. That’s an average of 4.88 Senate retirements per cycle. The number of retirements has never been lower than two (most recently in 1964) or higher than
eleven(1996) [thirteen, not eleven, Senators actually retired in 1996–James]. Over the last ten elections, the average was 5.7 but that included 1996’s eleven.Senate retirements played a huge role in 2004 as five southern Democrats retired and Republicans won all of those seats. Retirements have tended to run a tad higher in Presidential election years, maybe because it is [harder] to raise the cash needed to survive.
Even more evidence that lends weight to the theory that Allard probably won’t be the only retirement of the 2008 cycle.
Well I imagine there are a number of cases where a senator has a health scare and quickly chooses not to run – Paul Tsongas in 1984 would be one example.
And since you mention Campbell – was Hank Brown choosing to retire after only one term a “surprise”? It’s not something you see too often barring major personal life changes, or an 800 pound political gorilla announcing against you (which I’m guessing might have played a role in Paul Trible suddenly retiring at a very young age – in the face of Chuck Robb making a run).
I blogged on the fundraisers being a telling sign the other day.
The question is: who will actually retire and who might under the right circumstances.
My purely-gut-instincts at this point:
WILL retire:
1) John Warner of Virginia (ultimately doesn’t want to exert himself through a truly tough campaign)
2) Thad Cochran of Mississippi (just a feeling)
3) Chuck Hagel of Nebraska (I get the sense he’s tired of the machinations)
WILL retire IF:
1) Ted Stevens of Alaska IF there are any health flare-ups or IF his son’s legal problems implicate or even extend to him
2) Pete Domenici of New Mexico IF he has another embarrassing incident (a la the pajamas stroll) that calls into question his mental state
3) Larry Craig of Idaho IF any personal revelations that he might find embarrassing could leak out more broadly
WILL NOT retire:
1) Elizabeth Dole of North Carolina (too much ego)
2) Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma (needs his platform for misguided wrath)
3) Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
And, call it a hunch but, I think Colorado’s Wayne Allard has had enough.
Among Democrats.
Biden(DE),Harkin(IA),Kerry(MA),Levin(MI)and Rockefeller(WV)occupy committee chairmanships so They are staying.
Pryor(AR)is completing his first term. He is going seek re-election.
Durbin(IL),Landrieu(LA)and Reed(RI)will seek re-election.
The question marks on the Democrats are
1)Lautenberg(NJ)- age issue- does not occupy any committee chairmanships
2)Johnson(SD)- health.
Among Republicans
Stevens(AK),Roberts(KS),Cochran(MS),Domenici(NM),Dole(NC),Inhofe(OK),and Warner(VA)are over 70 years old.
I can only think of one matching the “announced then retired” label: Fred Thompson (R-TN) in 2002. He jumped on the GOP’s “9/11 exploitation” wave to announce his candidacy for re-election, then jumped off without warning less than a year later. After some scrambling on the GOP’s part, they replaced him with Lamar Alexander. (I keep forgetting Alexander’s technically a freshman when I think of ’08).
It seems to be something that’s happened a lot more often in the last couple of cycles than ever before.
Pete Domenici recently had his first fundraiser for his next run, which reportedly was very well attended in the big bucks category, including by a number of Dems.
A local blogger has pictures and video from a ground breaking Domenici attended this week in the southern part of the state and comments he looks strong and vital, contrary to the “rumors.” Check out this post on Heath Haussamen’s NM politics blog:
http://haussamen.blo…
There are also vague rumors circulating that Domenici may claim he’s running till almost the end, pretty much assuring he’ll get no Dem competitor of any strength, and then quit and have the state Repub party replace him with Heather Wilson. Who knows.
13 US Senators decided to retire.
1)Heflin(D-AL)
2)Pryor(D-AR)
3)Brown(R-CO)
4)Nunn(D-GA)
5)Simon(D-IL)
6)Kassebaum(R-KS)
7)Johnston(D-LA)
8)Cohen(R-ME)
9)Exon(D-NE)
10)Bradley(D-NJ)
11)Hatfield(R-OR)
12)Pell(D-RI)
13)Simpson(R-WY)
After 1996.- The number of open seats each cycle- 1998-2006
1998
1)Bumpers(D-AR)
2)Kempthorne(R-ID)ran for Governor
3)Coats(R-IN)retire rather than face a tough race from Bayh
4)Ford(D-KY)
5)Glenn(D-OH)
2000
1)Mack(R-FL)
2)Kerrey(D-NE)
3)Bryan(D-NV)
4)Lautenberg(D-NJ)
5)Moynihan(D-NY)
2002
1)Torrecelli(D-NJ)-resigned due to scandal
2)Wellstone(D-MN)-died a month before re-election
3)Helms(R-NC)
4)Thurmond(R-SC)
5)Arthur Branch(R-TN)
6)Phil Gramm(R-TX)
2004
1)Campbell(R-CO)
2)Graham(D-FL)
3)Miller(D-GA)
4)Fitzgerald(R-IL)
5)Breaux(D-LA)
6)Edwards(D-NC)
7)Nickles(R-OK)
8)Hollings(D-SC)
2006
1)Sarbanes(D-MD)
2)Dayton(D-MN)
3)Frist(R-TN)
4)Jeffords(I-VT)
In 2008.
Among Democrats.
6 out of the 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election occupy committee chairmanships
Biden(DE),Harkin(IA),Kerry(MA),Levin(MI),Baucus(MT),and Rockefeller(WV)- They are definetly going to run again.
The only Democratic US Senator who is over 70 years old does not occupy a committee chairmanship and is from a blue state is Lautenberg(D-NJ).
Among Republicans
The Republican Senators who are in their 70s
1)Stevens(R-AK)
2)Roberts(R-KS)
3)Cochran(R-MS)
4)Domenici(R-NM)
5)Dole(R-NC)-
6)Inhofe(R-OK)
7)Warner(R-VA)
Warner(R-VA)and Roberts(R-KS)lost their commitee chairmanships.