Franklin & Marshall College Poll (9/9-14, registered voters):
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 35
Lou Barletta (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.2%)
Now, there’s not much that I know about this poll’s sample breakdown or its crosstabs. The Franklin & Marshall College Poll (formerly the Keystone Poll) is a respected survey in Pennsylvania, but it’s hard to judge a poll like this without seeing its innards. Hopefully we’ll get some more information on this one shortly. (UPDATE: Full polling memo available below the fold.)
Still, with three polls showing Barletta leading (albeit, two of them were Barletta internals) and no other polls to inform us otherwise, it’s getting increasingly difficult to give Kanjorski the benefit of the doubt here. He’s in serious trouble.
UPDATE: Perhaps sensing trouble, the DCCC releases a poll of their own. Grove Insight (9/14-15, likely voters):
Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 48
Lou Barletta (R): 39
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Even those aren’t exactly rock-solid numbers, but they’re much better than anything else we’ve seen so far.
This may well just be wishful thinking on my part, but I have a hard time believing Kanjorski is really that far down, if he’s down at all. He beat Barletta reasonably comfortably in 2002 and has otherwise not had a tough race in 20 years, and nothing has changed fundamentally in that neck of the woods in decades, much less in the past six years.
I would almost like to believe this was just Kanjorski’s chickens coming home to roost after years of voting well to the right of his party, but it probably isn’t. There are an awful lot of right-wing Democrats in Wilkes-Barre and Scranton, and Kanjorski really is quite representative of the area in general.
(Full disclosure: I interned for Kanjorski in the summer of 1994. I loved DC – well enough to move back for good after I finished college – and I loved working on the Hill. But I did not care for Kanjorski’s voting record or his office atmosphere, which definitely carried a whiff of Northeast Pennsylvania with it. We’re talking exactly the sort of place Obama got into so much trouble for calling bitter…but he was right, folks there ARE bitter.)
is down by 9 points and only clocking in at 35%.
However, at best I’d say this race is tied. I’m not sure how we continue to justify dumping so much money into a slightly corrupt long-term congressman just because he’s forgot how to run a serious campaign. Maybe DCCC told him that they’d bail him out now, and next cycle he can retire with pomp and dignity and let a Dem who can deal with the fact that this is now a swing district take a crack?
of 2008.
A non controversial long time Democratic Congressman from a Democratic leaning Congressional District who lost reelection due to local issues.
Sam Gedjensen narrowly lost his seat in 2000 to Rob Simmons who lost his seat to Joe Courtney in 2006 during the 2006 Democratic wave.
The Democrats could let Kanjorski narrowly lose his seat. and in 2010- they can recruit a strong candidate like Patrick Casey – brother of US Senator Bob Casey Jr. who ran in the Republican leaning PA 10 CD ten years ago narrowly losing to Don Sherwood before the choking scandal to defeat Barletta in 2010.
People have absolutely no rhyme or reason to how they vote sometimes and they will just throw out an 11-term congressmen who represents their interests and ideology well for absolutely no reason. The American electorate is vastly stupid and extremely interesting.
http://dccc.org/blog/archives/…
Kanjorski 48
Barletta 39.
Still not fantastic numbers for Kanjorski…but certainly better…
Does ANYONE here believe Barletta is going to get nearly 30% of self-Identified Democrats voting for him on election day? Anyone believe he’s going to win 55% of Independants? That’s absurd. Period. It’s a God-Awful poll.
It has Obama-Biden leading McCain-Palin by 3 points in a district that voted for Kerry by 5 points and Gore by 10 points? Piss poor poll. End of story. I’d love to see internals on the DCCC poll before I give it any credit.
This is a Democratic seat that went for John Kerry by six poins and Al gore by 11. Barack Obama should pull Kanjorski over the finish line here.
Ranking the most vulnerable Bemocrats, greatest likelihood of flipping:
1. PA-11
2. TX-22
3. PA-10
4. KS-02
5. NH-01
6. FL-16
Yes, two seats in Pennsylvania. Culturally, Carville was right about this state. That’s why Obama’s having a hard time with this state.
I think the DCCC is throwing good money after bad in PA-11,
there are many other more worthy races (including CA-46 and CA-50).
Gedjenson was on the wrong side of some hot-button local issues, and without casting stones, I think there have been some allegations of impropriety lodged at Kanjorski. Not sure either can qualify as “non controversial”.