Selzer & Co for the Indianapolis Star (9/14-16, likely voters, 4/20-23 in parens):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 42 (43)
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 46 (44)
(MoE: ±4%)
Hot diggity dog! A close race? Could it really be?
Well, not if you ask Rasmussen (9/17-18, likely voters):
Jill Long Thompson (D): 40
Mitch Daniels (R-inc): 56
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Yeah, not so much.
Interestingly, both polls show an incredibly tight Presidential race: Selzer has Obama up 47-44, while Rasmussen has McCain leading 49-47. Is it time for John McCain to start taking the voters of Indiana seriously instead of giving them a perpetual brush off?
UPDATE: Mitchie D has his own internal (9/11-16, likely voters): 52-31.
(H/T: Blue Indiana)
There is no question that negative news on the economy (and we’ve had both national and state-level news here) help Democrats. I think JLT has made up some ground, but is not within a few points/a margin of error.
As I have suspected for a long time, there is going to be significant ticket-splitting in this election. The Selzer/Indy Star Poll (and I would be stunned if the Star does not endorse Daniels for re-election) found that 20% of Obama voters planning to vote for Daniels, while 16% of McCain voters are planning to vote for Thompson.
If I had JLT’s ear for a few minutes, the main thing I would encourage her to do is step it up in Indianapolis. I understand her focus on rural and small town areas, and it could pay off — but she also can’t completely ignore us here in the capital city.
Rasmussen and SUSA’s most recent polls are almost identical. Selzer seems to be the obvious outlier. I just cannot see anyway we scan still win this one quite honestly.
for an increased amount of young and African-American voters. I haven’t looked closely at the Rasmussen poll yet, but the previous SUSA poll inexplicably showed a decrease in the African-American vote.
I haven’t been able to find any details on the crosstabs for the Selzer poll, but here’s the Indy Star’s article explaining the adjustments made in the Selzer poll. It’s basically the same adjustments they made that let them accurately predict Obama’s lead in Iowa in the caucus.
I don’t know if it’s as close as the WTHR/Star/Selzer poll indicates, but I do think it is closer than Rasmussen/SUSA shows.