Elon University (9/15-16, residents):
Kay Hagan (D): 35
Elizabeth Dole (R-inc): 35
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Bev Perdue (D): 35
Pat McCrory (R): 37
(MoE: ±4.9%)
First off, this is a strange poll, from a pollster I’ve never heard of before: a poll of North Carolina residents, with no regard to voting likelihood or registration, with a 4.9% MoE, and, judging by the very low numbers, little interest in pushing leaners. (UPDATE: Nor does the poll even give the names of candidates, only asking whether respondents are voting Democratic or Republican in each race!)
On the other hand, the numbers seem quite consistent with what we’ve seen recently: a tied race in the Senate, and a governor’s race moving in the last month from a slight Dem lean to a slight GOP lean. McCain leads Obama 41-35, also plausible.
Elon is a university in NC, and this Republican pollster puts out nonsense every few months. They never institute a likely voter screen, heck, they dont even ask if people are registered to vote.
They also do fun things like saying they werent going to poll NC-08 in September of 2006 because “Its not a close race and isnt going to be a close race.” The guy in charge is a hack, and their polls have zero bearing on actual voting.
I’m not saying the other commenters are wrong that this pollster is useless, but the other polls show close races too. Maybe, just maybe, North Carolina has become a purple state. Am I right? If so, have there been demographic changes?