105 thoughts on “Weekly Open Thread: What Races Are You Interested In?”

  1. on which Dems I should donate to in the House races across the country.

    I am a new subscriber here but have been reading the blog for about 6 months now.  I respect the opinions of all the posters and commenters a great deal and I like that your blog is updated regularly but also that you guys are not like some of the other larger, left-leaning blogs amidst the blogosphere.  Anyway, down to business.

    I will have about $500 to donate this cycle and though I have given to Obama a couple times already (and will likely do so once more), I want to spread about $20-$25 to about 25 candidates.  I want to donate to those who have a better than average chance of winning and where my, albeit small, dollars will have some impact.  I need everyone’s expertise on where I should spread my dollars.  Below is a list I have compiled but please tell me where I went wrong and the direction I should be pointed towards.  Thanks.

    AK-AL

    CA-04 (I am a Californian and I like Brown)

    NV-03

    CT-04

    LA-04

    LA-06

    LA-07

    MI-07

    MI-09

    MS-SEN-B

    MO-06

    MO-09

    MD-01

    NM-01

    MN-03

    ID-01

    AL-02

    KY-02

    WV-02

    TX-22

    NJ-03

    NJ-07

    Any suggestions?  I could probably strecth my wallet a bit past $500 but like everyone else I gotta pay the bills.  Let me know what you think.  Also, with the exception of the MO races, KY race and NV race listed above I dont remember seeing much polling recently from the remainder of the races so that would be cool.  Thanks.

     

  2. If you read FiveThirtyEight.com, you know that CO and VA are the places to be this year!

    Also, a group of volunteers just launched a site called ObamaTravel.org that puts volunteers who want to travel to swing states in touch with financial sponsors and swing state host families, and allows the sponsor to track the progress and on-the-ground numbers of the volunteer they’ve sponsored.

    It’s sort of a political hybrid of Craig’s List and Team-in-Training and a pretty cool concept – check it out here: http://ObamaTravel.org/

    And the Facebook group is here:

    http://www.new.facebook.com/gr…

  4. Yesterday a Wall Street Journal article featured Judy Baker. General Wesley Clark’s PAC also started fundraising for her on ActBlue yesterday.

    So far I still lead Wesley Clark in online bundling for Baker, but I think star power is on the good General’s side 😉

    My page:

    http://www.actblue.com/page/wa…

    Wesley Clark is gaining ground!!

    http://www.actblue.com/entity/…

    Judy Baker’s opponent Blaine Luetkemeyer was featured in a Missouri Democratic Party web ad because he has said repeatedly that the MO-09 district does not need change and that the country is headed in the right direction and we don’t need to change direction.

    Blaine Luetkemeyer says we don’t need any change?? Here it is:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…

    Apparently Luetkemeyer didn’t get the memo that this is a change election.  

  5. I haven’t heard as much about these Midwest races as I have the other races that tickle my fancy, so I want to shake it up here tonight & move up to the Heartland!

    IL-11: How goes Debbie Halvorsen?

    MI-09: How goes Gary Peters? Is there any “Obama effect” that’s helping or hurting us here?

    OH-15: I remember being heartbroken here in 2006, so I want to see if anything’s different this year. How’s Mary Jo Kilroy been?

    MO-06: Any updates on Kay Barnes? Again, is there any “Obama effect” helping or hurting us?

    MO-09: What about Judy Baker?

    IA-04: How goes Becky Greenwald? I hear EMILY’S List is getting involved.

    🙂

  6. The Progressive Electorate’s Two for Tuesday

    Our Congressional Picks

    AL-03 – Josh Segall – darkhorse, but on emerging races and is only a R+3; great young candidate

    IL-10 – Dan Seals

    NM-01 Martin Heinrich

    TX-04 Glenn Melancon – a friend is working on this race; a long shot

    **NC-10 Daniel Johnson –  You will just feel better by donating to Johnson. Patrick McHenry is the worst in Congress and Daniel Johnson is a feel good story. Veteran. Double amputee. Worked for Max Cleeland

    CA-04 Charlie Brown – nuff said

    WA-08 Darcy Burner – Obama just endorsed her

    KY-01 Heather Ryan – longshot , but she stood up to McConnell about Iraq and he got her fired; a fighter

    IA-04 – Becky Greenwald – District will go for Obama

  8. Frank Kratovil is a great candidate and Harris is a loon.  I really think Kratovil has a great chance in this race.  The endorsement by Gilchrest is going to be a huge boost for him.

  9. 1. WA Gov – this should have been in our pocket. Instead it is giving me heartburn.

    2. NoVa – this region is not doing well for Obama – is this a “Tom Bradley” effect? The liberal blogs in the area frittered away much of their credibility in a nasty (and pointless) attack on Gerry Connolly in the VA-11 primary. Will that hurt us? At what levels?

    3. Kanjorski – I really would like to see this guy tarred and feathered. Unfortunately, that would mean giving up a seat.

    4. OR senate – I want it badly. I wish the primary had not been so keenly fought.

    5. The Hayes-Kissell fight in NC. What are our chances?

    6. NY-26 – Kryzan’s seat

    7. MN-03

    8. How are we doing in Ohio and PA in general? If we are doing well, that bodes well for Obama too.

    I would like to point out that CA-50 is bedrock Republican and will not change hands in this election.  

  10. I think we all know the most competitive House seats. Here are some I hope we can bring around before election day:

    AL-02: This race has been quiet. It be great if we picked up this one.

    WY-AL: Like to win this one. Gonna be tough in a a prez election year.

    NC-10: The SSP has this as Safe Republican? Strange to see it on the R2B.

    NM-02: Teague is running well. A poll would be nice. How ’bout it kos?

    AZ-03: If not this year, Lord should come back next year.

    CT-04: Himes can get this one.

    FL-21, FL-25: Either one of these would be great.

    MD-01: Good news all around.

    It’d be great if we could move up at least a couple of these into toss-up.

    In the Senate, I don’t think that Allen has a chance to win in Maine. The DSCC should move money over to NC and OR. I still don’t think Franken will beat Coleman. Musgrove deserves to win. I’d be happy with 7-8 Senate pick-ups. Talk about a great year.

  11. MN-03 (Madia) – This race hasn’t been garnering much attention in the blogosphere but it’s my personal must-watch race of the election

    NJ-07 (Stender) – I grew up a stone’s throw away from this district and I know it’s itching to flip blue.

    NY-13 (MacMahon) – I think the better question is who ISN’T enthralled by this race?

    NY-26 (Kryzan)

    CO-04 (Markey)

    AK-AL (Berkowitz)

  12. http://www.politico.com/blogs/…

    Last month, the DSCC spent about $13.7 million, primarily on advertising, in competitive Senate races in Oregon, Colorado, Mississippi and North Carolina. The National Republican Senatorial Committee spent just $3 million, conserving most of its warchest for later on in the election cycle.

    But given the Democrats’ spending spree, the NRSC closed the money gap considerably as the election heads into the final stretch. The NRSC outraised the DSCC for the month, $5.1 million to $4.4 million, a total aided by GOP senators not facing tough re-election bids transferring money from their campaign accounts.

    The DSCC ended August with $33.7 million, while the NRSC banked $26.8 million.

  14. with their first ad

    Don’t see a media buy or production buy for it on the IE Tracker. What’s up with that James?

    1. Thanks for answering my question below. So what else is going on in MO-09? I’m hoping to do something soon on my favorite Midwest races. 🙂

  15. but I’m trying to get my parents’ OK to get sent off somewhere other than my home CT-01 and do some Obama fieldwork somewhere.  Hopefully, it’ll be somewhere in one of these states: NV, NM, MN, IN, OH, FL, VA, WV, NC, NH, or PA.  And hopefully in a competitive district in one of those!

  16. Does anyone remember, recently the DCCC dished out 1.75 Million dollars in media ads?  The majority of that advertising (0.5M)going to NH-01?

    Funny thing: http://www.swingstateproject.c…

    DCCC had .5 Million in reserved ad time in New Hampshire.  Any idea if that’s the same .5 million they spent?  Or do we think it’s a different .5 million?

  19. So I live down in Fort Lauderdale (officially), but I work in Orlando, FL, so most of the election commercials are presidential with McCain and Obama on the tube a lot, and then the FL-08 race. But it’s entirely Grayson on the TV, and they are interesting ads to say the least. I am beginning to wonder if Keller thinks the race is his given the lack of advertising, or if Grayson is just wishful thinking, or that this really could be a race.  

  21. About 2.2 million American homes are in foreclosure. In each home there are most likely 2 voters, at least. How does foreclosure affect their right to vote? How do 5 million disenfranchised voters (mostly African American and Hispanic) affect the presidential election?

    Disenfranchising millions and millions and millions of legal voters is as unAmerican as cheating someone out of the American Dream of owning their own home.

    http://thelieshavenotimproved….

    1. They always underestimate Obama in MA.  I even remember a poll showing McCain down 2 in MA, yeah right.

      And yes, the Pacific Northwest they seem to have a habit of underestimating Obama.  WA and OR will probably show Obama up 2-5 points.  I’d be shocked is Obama won WA by less than 8 and OR by less than 6 in the end.

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